Colts name Daniel Jones the QB1

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

And if Jones plays as well as Manning or Luck did in their prime then we'll be SB contenders.



If Jones plays as well as this year as Rivers did in '20 then I'll be perfectly happy w/ us signing Jones to an extension and shipping AR off. Like you though, I seriously doubt that happens. I think at best we get Jones "good" year in NY passing and his career average in rushing:

3,200 yds, 63% completion %, 15/5 TD/Int; ~500 yds rushing and 4 TDs. Which is maybe just good enough to squeak us into the playoffs.

With only one year of that big of a jump in production I would not invest in Jones long term. That’s the kind of decision that kill teams. He’s had one decent season (that didn’t reach this level) got paid for it and then fell apart. I have no trust he is a franchise QB. He’s at best the kind of guy that keeps you in no man’s land, winning enough games to keep you from finding his replacement while never being good enough to truly compete. And I think that is being fairly optimistic.

[nate505]

Originally Posted by YDFL Commish

If Jones can have a similar season to Rivers, when he was here, and add 500 yds rushing, the offense will play winning football.

passing yds. 4000+
passing TD's 24+
interceptions 12-
completion pct. 65%+
fumbles 5-
rushing yds. 500+

If Jones can do that, I'll apologize to him/Steichen/Ballard, tip my hat to Jones for being able to do it, tip my hat to Steichen and Ballard for having the plan and vision to see it is possible, and hope the Colts re-sign him.

It would give him a 91% passer rating (assuming say 500 pass attempts), which would be close to his best year ever, and would be career highs for him in attempts, passing yards, passing TDs (tie), and a career low in fumbles per game.

[Discflinger]

Let's go!

[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by YDFL Commish

If Jones can have a similar season to Rivers, when he was here, and add 500 yds rushing, the offense will play winning football.

passing yds. 4000+
passing TD's 24+
interceptions 12-
completion pct. 65%+
fumbles 5-
rushing yds. 500+

Comparable to his rookie stats of 3700yds, 24td, 12int, 300yds rushing. Unless he's shellshocked, I don't think it's outlandish to think he could replicate it.

And again, not to say I expect this caliber of ascension from him... But Sam Darnold had worse numbers than Jones, floated around, and then had an MVP-worthy season out of nowhere.

Jones wouldn't have to do all that. Hopefully he does... but he could have ok, efficient numbers, move the chains, rely on the weapons and compliment the defense rather than gas them and win games.

That could be enough for Steichen and Ballard to make the point(s) they need to make to CIG... Points being A.) finding a QB is a crapshoot and B.) that they can field a competitive team even with Daniel Fucking Jones at QB, so you'll want us when we hit at QB.

[apballin]

Originally Posted by rm1369

I’m skeptical Jones can do that, but ok let’s say that happens. Then what? Do you commit to Jones and that level of QB play long term? Or do you let Jones leave to whatever team overpays for that production and continue on the Ballard QB carousel?

I’m curious why after years of defending Ballard not trying to win, always waiting another year to fix something major, for some guys this year suddenly winning the max amount of games possible is the only thing that matters. Future be damned.

Pretty simple really, jobs are on the line, careers are nearing their end, and fans are fed up with incompetent play and self inflicted failures leading to playoff whiffs

[YDFL Commish]

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory

Comparable to his rookie stats of 3700yds, 24td, 12int, 300yds rushing. Unless he's shellshocked, I don't think it's outlandish to think he could replicate it.

And again, not to say I expect this caliber of ascension from him... But Sam Darnold had worse numbers than Jones, floated around, and then had an MVP-worthy season out of nowhere.

Jones wouldn't have to do all that. Hopefully he does... but he could have ok, efficient numbers, move the chains, rely on the weapons and compliment the defense rather than gas them and win games.

That could be enough for Steichen and Ballard to make the point(s) they need to make to CIG... Points being A.) finding a QB is a crapshoot and B.) that they can field a competitive team even with Daniel Fucking Jones at QB, so you'll want us when we hit at QB.

Also, Jones rookie season was a 16 game season. He also has a much better supporting cast, than any of those seasons. I predict he can and will be close go those numbers.

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by apballin

Pretty simple really, jobs are on the line, careers are nearing their end, and fans are fed up with incompetent play and self inflicted failures leading to playoff whiffs

Jones being just good enough to save this regime is my nightmare scenario. None of those things will have magically changed if the team wins 1-2 more games and makes the playoffs. The core philosophy that led to this point would still be in place with the same type question marks at QB.

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory

Comparable to his rookie stats of 3700yds, 24td, 12int, 300yds rushing. Unless he's shellshocked, I don't think it's outlandish to think he could replicate it.

And again, not to say I expect this caliber of ascension from him... But Sam Darnold had worse numbers than Jones, floated around, and then had an MVP-worthy season out of nowhere.

Jones wouldn't have to do all that. Hopefully he does... but he could have ok, efficient numbers, move the chains, rely on the weapons and compliment the defense rather than gas them and win games.

That could be enough for Steichen and Ballard to make the point(s) they need to make to CIG... Points being A.) finding a QB is a crapshoot and B.) that they can field a competitive team even with Daniel Fucking Jones at QB, so you'll want us when we hit at QB.

The most yds Jones has thrown for is 3205 in his 4th year. The only year he has ever played 16 games. To get to 3700 you have to extrapolate his highest per game average to 16 games. His highest average was his rookie year. Not really a comforting stat for a 6 yr vet. And a main reason he’s only played 16 games once in his career is because of injury. Same knock as AR just proven in even more seasons.

So the Ballard selling point is “after 9 years in the worst division in football, if I go all in, win now mode I’m so good I can make the playoffs. And my 8th choice at QB and a NY Giants castoff is better than the guy we selected #4 in the draft and have no idea how to develop”. If ownership buys that, the fans are really screwed.

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by rm1369

With only one year of that big of a jump in production I would not invest in Jones long term. That’s the kind of decision that kill teams. He’s had one decent season (that didn’t reach this level) got paid for it and then fell apart. I have no trust he is a franchise QB. He’s at best the kind of guy that keeps you in no man’s land, winning enough games to keep you from finding his replacement while never being good enough to truly compete. And I think that is being fairly optimistic.

Good point. Guess I'm too eager to get our QB situation solved that if he equaled the 2nd best QB performance that we've had in the past 10 years that I thought we should lock him up. A more prudent approach would be to franchise him and if he repeats said performance then sign him to a long term contract. Realistically this is a moot point though b/c the chance of Jones being as good as Rivers at any point in his career are pretty damn slim.

Comparable to his rookie stats of 3700yds, 24td, 12int, 300yds rushing. Unless he's shellshocked, I don't think it's outlandish to think he could replicate it.

As rn already pointed out you're incorrect on your stats as Jones threw for 3,027 yds in his rookie season and not 3,700. You also left off that he fumbled 19 times that year.

[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by rm1369

The most yds Jones has thrown for is 3205 in his 4th year. The only year he has ever played 16 games. To get to 3700 you have to extrapolate his highest per game average to 16 games. His highest average was his rookie year. Not really a comforting stat for a 6 yr vet. And a main reason he’s only played 16 games once in his career is because of injury. Same knock as AR just proven in even more seasons.

So the Ballard selling point is “after 9 years in the worst division in football, if I go all in, win now mode I’m so good I can make the playoffs. And my 8th choice at QB and a NY Giants castoff is better than the guy we selected #4 in the draft and have no idea how to develop”. If ownership buys that, the fans are really screwed.

Yeah, I think I already extrapolated his rookie year to 16 games and used that 3725 number by mistake. Point still stands... better than Darnold and some other redemption arcs we've seen in recent years. Not like it's a preposterous outlook.

The selling point is the same it's always been. I know it doesn't compute with you, and fair enough, it doesn't compute with a lot of fans. But the world makes a lot more sense if you don't bang your head against a wall and ask God what mysterious voodoo magic Chris Ballard has to keep his job this long...

This team has an offense that is relatively loaded with weapons and an offense line that is typically, year-in and year-out one of the better units in the league. We were top-10 in scoring with Gardner Minshew. Before the 22' bizarro-fest, we were 9th Carson Wentz. Averaged something like 28ppg with Rivers/Luck. They have, and have had, plenty around the QB. That's why he's still around.

So it may come down to whether or not one believes that finding a QB is a crapshoot or not. I do. I think the science of finding a QB is: if one is available when you have a premium pick, take him. And if you find a Wilson in the 3rd, Cousins in the 4th, or Purdy in the 7th, sometimes they can play and congratulations.