Quenton Nelson (G-ND) Rd #1 Pick #6

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by rm1369

Maybe someone can help me out and explain why it makes perfect sense to “overpay” in the draft for a guard at #6 but it’s not OK to overpay for a known commodity at guard in free agency. It’s a serious question because last night I was told I was to stupid to respond to because I value a high draft pick more than cap space on a team lacking talent but with loads of cap space. With the current lack of talent on the team I don’t see players being cap casualties anytime soon because you over paid for a top young guard in free agency (Norwell or Pugh), but I see the selection of Nelson immediately costing the team a defensive anchor. Seriously - what the hell am I missing?

The problem with Norwell is you are assuming it came down just to money. Norwell turned down the Giants and multiple other teams as well. He went to a contender. If we had gotten Norwell, would we still have taken Nelson? From a BPA perspective the answer would be yes. Unless Smith was just as closely rated.

[Spike]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

I did. It didn't. No. Guard. Is. Worth. The. 6th. Overall. Pick. In. Any. Draft.



I'd rather go back to the Polian days of getting C or C+ draft grades from analysts and winning the division year in and year out.

Ok, let's just let Luck get the holy shit beat out of him. Lets not be able to run the fucking ball. Ballard and Reich must be dumb shits to pick Nelson, damn we are in a world of hurt with these two running the Colts. I've mentioned this in other posts, there were only 3 really elite prospects in this draft and Nelson was one of them.

[FatDT]

Originally Posted by JesusChrist

We didn't "overpay" for Nelson. He was an elite prospect in this draft and would have been chosen within a couple of picks of where he went. That's not overpaying.

You can't say this but simultaneously saying that spending plentiful cap space in FA on a 27 year old All Pro guard would've been too costly. I think that is his point.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by JesusChrist

You mean the years when we had a good offensive line who protected the QB? Me too. Can't win the division with your franchise QB injured every year.

The years when the Colts drafted their starting guards on Day 3, impact defenders with top 15 picks, and the OL had 1 first round pick on the roster. Those years.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

The problem with Norwell is you are assuming it came down just to money. Norwell turned down the Giants and multiple other teams as well. He went to a contender. If we had gotten Norwell, would we still have taken Nelson? From a BPA perspective the answer would be yes. Unless Smith was just as closely rated.

Living in Florida? +
No state income tax? +
Playing home games on grass instead of turf? +
Playing for a contender? +

Lot's of things Indy would have to overcome vs Jacksonville.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by rm1369

Assuming there are difference makers to spend it on, right? I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that in 2020 Nelson and Norwell (or hell, even Pugh) will be closer in total game impact than Smith (especially) or Edmunds will be to the best free agent LB available that year. Look at the three names you compared Smith to previously and tell me how likely they are to hit free agency in their prime at 26 or 27 yrs old.

You're still looking at this too narrowly, doing simple +/- calculations. My point was that this is multidimensional and you can't evaluate it properly at this point in time.

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

The problem with Norwell is you are assuming it came down just to money. Norwell turned down the Giants and multiple other teams as well. He went to a contender. If we had gotten Norwell, would we still have taken Nelson? From a BPA perspective the answer would be yes. Unless Smith was just as closely rated.

You are right that I don’t know what Norwell’s motivation was (or Pugh’s), but I think it’s become pretty clear what Ballard’s approach to free agency has been. His words and actions have mostly aligned. So I don’t think it’s at all a stretch to believe the Colts weren’t the highest bidder for either of their services. But regardless the question was primarily directed to those who think I’m crazy for, in the current situation, being willing to over pay the position in free agency but not in draft capital.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by rm1369

You are right that I don’t know what Norwell’s motivation was (or Pugh’s), but I think it’s become pretty clear what Ballard’s approach to free agency has been. His words and actions have mostly aligned. So I don’t think it’s at all a stretch to believe the Colts weren’t the highest bidder for either of their services. But regardless the question was primarily directed to those who think I’m crazy for, in the current situation, being willing to over pay the position in free agency but not in draft capital.

You aren't wrong. Neither is Ballard's philosophy. Too many of you are arguing absolutes here.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Spike

Ok, let's just let Luck get the holy shit beat out of him. Lets not be able to run the fucking ball. Ballard and Reich must be dumb shits to pick Nelson, damn we are in a world of hurt with these two running the Colts. I've mentioned this in other posts, there were only 3 really elite prospects in this draft and Nelson was one of them.

A guard cannot be an elite prospect. Sorry, just can't, the positional value is too low. And as far as "can't miss safe pick" goes, Aaron Curry and A.J. Hawk are the two players I most distinctly remember being given that designation, and neither of them came anywhere close to getting a gold jacket. That said, Nelson could be John Hannah reincarnated and this would still be a bad pick if Roquan Smith becomes the next Derrick Brooks or Tremaine Edmunds becomes the next Brian Urlacher.

[Maniac]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

The years when the Colts drafted their starting guards on Day 3, impact defenders with top 15 picks, and the OL had 1 first round pick on the roster. Those years.

What impact defender other than Freeney did Polian draft in the top 15?

Polian's lack of addressing the line as his tenure went on had a negative effect on the offense, especially in the playoffs. Polian should have addressed the line with better quality talent, but failed to do so after some of those guys from his earlier years were gone.