The Colts QB in 2021 is?...

[Chaka]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

As seen above, guarantees on a player contract must be absorbed by the trading team. Thus, as previously stated, the Colts would have Wentz on a guarantee free contract, and could easily restructure it by offering him some guarantees instead of none. I'd be happy with only trading a 3 to get him, but certainly would take him for less.

Guys, maybe it’s just because it’s late, but you’re losing me here. You’ve cited a couple large chunks of CBA language, a hefty portion of which doesn't relate to our discussion, and you don’t highlight the precise portions you are relying upon. Nevertheless, I reviewed that language and I remain confused - how do the sections you’ve cited not say exactly what I’ve been telling you? Yes, in a trade scenario (or in a release scenario, for that matter) signing bonuses are telescoped into that cap year. In Wentz’s case, this would include the remaining prorated portion of his $16.3M signing bonus (~$9.8M) and the remaining prorated portion of his $30M option bonus ($24M). This is the $34M I spoke of. In your calculation of the $34M, it appears you excluded his (fully paid) signing bonus, but included his (unpaid) 2021 roster bonus for some reason. That’s the first issue I see.

Second, where does any of this say that a trade would deliver Wentz‘s contract to the Colts “stripped of all guarantees” as you stated in Post 93 above? That’s what throws me the most. Wentz’s contract includes a number of guarantees that you’re not mentioning – including his now fully vested and guaranteed 2021 salary ($15.4M) and roster bonus ($10M), and the unvested guarantees relating to his 2022 salary ($22M) and roster bonus ($5M). Are you suggesting that Wentz would somehow forfeit these if the Eagles decide to trade him? I think he’d file a lawsuit against his agent if this were the case. No, those guarantees would travel with Wentz to the Colts, and the Colts would assume responsibility for them (and all remaining contract terms) moving forward.

Third, I am lost in your calculations – how do you get to a 4-year / $66M remaining contract “with 2 roster bonuses of $5 million being the only guarantees on the deal”? I know you have a calculation in mind, but I just can’t figure out what it is. As I read it, between 2021-2024, Wentz is scheduled to receive about $78M in salary and another $20M in roster bonuses (all of the other money has already been paid), so that adds up to $98M, not $66M. And given your earlier statement that all guarantees get stripped from the contract after a trade, how could there still be “2 roster bonuses of $5 million being the only guarantees on the deal”?

Fourth, if the Eagles were responsible for all guarantees in Wentz’s contract upon a trade, the cap hit would be almost $60M, not $34M as you state – the same as an outright release. This would include the $34M mentioned above (for his signing bonus and option bonus), his 2021 fully guaranteed salary ($15.4M) and his 2021 fully guaranteed roster bonus ($10M). Again, this is not the case, and essentially highlights the distinction between the cap consequences upon release ($60M) and trade ($34M). Neither are good, but a trade is actually feasible and actually might save them a few bucks against their existing 2021 and 2022 cap totals (Remember, if he stays for the 2021 season, Wentz will count $34.6M against their cap AND by doing so they’ll trigger a $15M guarantee for 2022 as well).

Again, given the circumstances, I think the Eagles should have a very strong incentive to find a trade partner for Wentz, as they probably can't afford to cut him and while they'll feel pain no matter what in 2021, keeping him around will damage their 2022 cap as well. The acquiring team would be asked to take on a big cap number themselves too, along with the risk created by his recent poor performance. So a 6-7th rounder should be all that is necessary.

EDIT – I have learned since my original post is the “option” number mentioned in the contract payment chart is simply a prorated breakdown of a $30M “option bonus” provided to Wentz at the outset of the contract. This is money already in his pocket, but per the CBA rules you cited, is spread across the entire length of the contract for cap purposes.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Chaka

Guys, maybe it’s just because it’s late, but you’re losing me here. You’ve cited a couple large chunks of CBA language, a hefty portion of which doesn't relate to our discussion, and you don’t highlight the precise portions you are relying upon. Nevertheless, I reviewed that language and I remain confused - how do the sections you’ve cited not say exactly what I’ve been telling you? Yes, in a trade scenario (or in a release scenario, for that matter) signing bonuses are telescoped into that cap year. In Wentz’s case, this would include the remaining prorated portion of his $16.3M signing bonus (~$9.8M) and the remaining prorated portion of his $30M option bonus ($24M). This is the $34M I spoke of. In your calculation of the $34M, it appears you excluded his (fully paid) signing bonus, but included his (unpaid) 2021 roster bonus for some reason. That’s the first issue I see.

Second, where does any of this say that a trade would deliver Wentz‘s contract to the Colts “stripped of all guarantees” as you stated in Post 93 above? That’s what throws me the most. Wentz’s contract includes a number of guarantees that you’re not mentioning – including his now fully vested and guaranteed 2021 salary ($15.4M) and roster bonus ($10M), and the unvested guarantees relating to his 2022 salary ($22M) and roster bonus ($5M). Are you suggesting that Wentz would somehow forfeit these if the Eagles decide to trade him? I think he’d file a lawsuit against his agent if this were the case. No, those guarantees would travel with Wentz to the Colts, and the Colts would assume responsibility for them (and all remaining contract terms) moving forward.

Third, I am lost in your calculations – how do you get to a 4-year / $66M remaining contract “with 2 roster bonuses of $5 million being the only guarantees on the deal”? I know you have a calculation in mind, but I just can’t figure out what it is. As I read it, between 2021-2024, Wentz is scheduled to receive about $78M in salary and another $20M in roster bonuses (all of the other money has already been paid), so that adds up to $98M, not $66M. And given your earlier statement that all guarantees get stripped from the contract after a trade, how could there still be “2 roster bonuses of $5 million being the only guarantees on the deal”?

Fourth, if the Eagles were responsible for all guarantees in Wentz’s contract upon a trade, the cap hit would be almost $60M, not $34M as you state – the same as an outright release. This would include the $34M mentioned above (for his signing bonus and option bonus), his 2021 fully guaranteed salary ($15.4M) and his 2021 fully guaranteed roster bonus ($10M). Again, this is not the case, and essentially highlights the distinction between the cap consequences upon release ($60M) and trade ($34M). Neither are good, but a trade is actually feasible and actually might save them a few bucks against their existing 2021 and 2022 cap totals (Remember, if he stays for the 2021 season, Wentz will count $34.6M against their cap AND by doing so they’ll trigger a $15M guarantee for 2022 as well).

Again, given the circumstances, I think the Eagles should have a very strong incentive to find a trade partner for Wentz, as they probably can't afford to cut him and while they'll feel pain no matter what in 2021, keeping him around will damage their 2022 cap as well. The acquiring team would be asked to take on a big cap number themselves too, along with the risk created by his recent poor performance. So a 6-7th rounder should be all that is necessary.

EDIT – I have learned since my original post is the “option” number mentioned in the contract payment chart is simply a prorated breakdown of a $30M “option bonus” provided to Wentz at the outset of the contract. This is money already in his pocket, but per the CBA rules you cited, is spread across the entire length of the contract for cap purposes.

I went on Spotrac to look again just now and saw the ~$9.8 million signing bonus in the second column. I don't know how I missed that the first time. Reassessing, I see that trading for Wentz would come with a 4 year/$98.4 million contract, and based on the "potential out" shown on spotrac, it's essentially a 1 year/$25.4 million contract with a 3 year club option at $73 million that the Colts can walk away from with no dead cap (the dead cap shown on Spotrac is the stuff that would get accelerated into 2021 upon a trade). So if the Colts decided to go this route, they'd effectively try him out for 1 year, and if it doesn't work out, walk away with no obligation and likely a high draft pick to secure their franchise QB of the future, and if it does, have their franchise QB on a bargain deal. That seems worth a 3 to me.

[Chaka]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

I went on Spotrac to look again just now and saw the ~$9.8 million signing bonus in the second column. I don't know how I missed that the first time. Reassessing, I see that trading for Wentz would come with a 4 year/$98.4 million contract, and based on the "potential out" shown on spotrac, it's essentially a 1 year/$25.4 million contract with a 3 year club option at $73 million that the Colts can walk away from with no dead cap (the dead cap shown on Spotrac is the stuff that would get accelerated into 2021 upon a trade). So if the Colts decided to go this route, they'd effectively try him out for 1 year, and if it doesn't work out, walk away with no obligation and likely a high draft pick to secure their franchise QB of the future, and if it does, have their franchise QB on a bargain deal. That seems worth a 3 to me.

Your recalculated numbers are largely correct, with one significant exception. The Colts would not only take on his guaranteed $25.4 salary in 2021, but also would assume a minimum of $15M in salary under the 2022 cap because per Wentz’s contract this portion of his 2022 salary becomes guaranteed prior to NEXT (2021) season – meaning that it would become guaranteed long before we would ever see Wentz play in a Colts uniform. Since I highly doubt that we’d trade for and then cut him before that point, this amount would for all practical purposes be guaranteed. So depending upon how long we would decide to keep him, the existing contract would equate to any one of the following (our choice):

1 Year / $40.4M
2 Year / $47.4M
3 year / $72.4M
4 year / $98.4M

On the issue of trade value, reasonable minds can of course disagree. Certainly, he brings a lot of upside, and that upside by itself is no doubt worth a 3rd round pick in isolation, but we also have to consider the cost to the Colts (at least $40.4M, probably more), the risks/potential downside given his most recent performance, and perhaps most importantly the existing pressure on Philly to unload him. They are something like $60M-$70M over next year’s cap already, so they desperately need to make some major changes and can’t afford to keep paying a backup QB this kind of money. Those factors should significantly reduce his value in a negotiation context to the point that I think only a nominal pick and/or player would be required in return.

In a way, I’d actually be strangely encouraged if the Colts were forced into giving the Eagles a 3rd round pick for him, since that would suggest to me that we REALLY like him and are confident that whatever went wrong this season can be fixed, and/or that there was lots of competition for him and thus other teams like him as well. I have faith in the process here, since I don’t think Ballard will be bamboozled into paying significantly more than he’s worth.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Chaka

Your recalculated numbers are largely correct, with one significant exception. The Colts would not only take on his guaranteed $25.4 salary in 2021, but also would assume a minimum of $15M in salary under the 2022 cap because per Wentz’s contract this portion of his 2022 salary becomes guaranteed prior to NEXT (2021) season – meaning that it would become guaranteed long before we would ever see Wentz play in a Colts uniform. Since I highly doubt that we’d trade for and then cut him before that point, this amount would for all practical purposes be guaranteed. So depending upon how long we would decide to keep him, the existing contract would equate to any one of the following (our choice):

1 Year / $40.4M
2 Year / $47.4M
3 year / $72.4M
4 year / $98.4M

On the issue of trade value, reasonable minds can of course disagree. Certainly, he brings a lot of upside, and that upside by itself is no doubt worth a 3rd round pick in isolation, but we also have to consider the cost to the Colts (at least $40.4M, probably more), the risks/potential downside given his most recent performance, and perhaps most importantly the existing pressure on Philly to unload him. They are something like $60M-$70M over next year’s cap already, so they desperately need to make some major changes and can’t afford to keep paying a backup QB this kind of money. Those factors should significantly reduce his value in a negotiation context to the point that I think only a nominal pick and/or player would be required in return.

In a way, I’d actually be strangely encouraged if the Colts were forced into giving the Eagles a 3rd round pick for him, since that would suggest to me that we REALLY like him and are confident that whatever went wrong this season can be fixed, and/or that there was lots of competition for him and thus other teams like him as well. I have faith in the process here, since I don’t think Ballard will be bamboozled into paying significantly more than he’s worth.

That doesn't make sense with the potential out listed on Spotrac. Clearly, there has to be a way to get out of the contract while absorbing only the signing bonus and option bonus amounts (which would be 0 with the Colts). I don't think you're right about the 2022 salary being guaranteed. There has to be some sort of out. Why would they go out of their way to list it otherwise? Do you have some sort of proof of that second year guarantee claim?

Even if you were right about the second year guarantee, $40 million would represent a $5 million decrease in investment in the QB position for the Colts.

[Chaka]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

That doesn't make sense with the potential out listed on Spotrac. Clearly, there has to be a way to get out of the contract while absorbing only the signing bonus and option bonus amounts (which would be 0 with the Colts). I don't think you're right about the 2022 salary being guaranteed. There has to be some sort of out. Why would they go out of their way to list it otherwise? Do you have some sort of proof of that second year guarantee claim?

Even if you were right about the second year guarantee, $40 million would represent a $5 million decrease in investment in the QB position for the Colts.

You are technically correct - the $15 million isn't guaranteed yet, and wouldn't be guaranteed until March 20, 2021 - the third day of the league year. However, I was operating on the assumption that it was effectively guaranteed, at least as to the Colts, because if we traded for Wentz and took on his $25.4M salary for 2021, we aren't going to cut him before March 20 of this year absent his involvement in some sort of OJ-style murder spree.

From the Eagle's perspective, however, it is possible (though very unlikely in my view) that if they can't find a trade partner, they could go nuclear and cut him, absorb the $60M cap hit next year to be done with it. In that case, assuming they did this prior to March 20, they wouldn't have to pay the $15M because it would not have vested yet.

Spotrac's breakdown is from the perspective of the Eagles, not any potential trade partners.

[JAFF]

And what have we learned? Too much money screws up a fun game. See baseball as an example

[albany ed]

At any rate, that's a lot of money to give a QB with a career 89 passer rating and a winning percentage of .514.

Reich would have to be very certain that he can turn him around.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Chaka

You are technically correct - the $15 million isn't guaranteed yet, and wouldn't be guaranteed until March 20, 2021 - the third day of the league year. However, I was operating on the assumption that it was effectively guaranteed, at least as to the Colts, because if we traded for Wentz and took on his $25.4M salary for 2021, we aren't going to cut him before March 20 of this year absent his involvement in some sort of OJ-style murder spree.

From the Eagle's perspective, however, it is possible (though very unlikely in my view) that if they can't find a trade partner, they could go nuclear and cut him, absorb the $60M cap hit next year to be done with it. In that case, assuming they did this prior to March 20, they wouldn't have to pay the $15M because it would not have vested yet.

Spotrac's breakdown is from the perspective of the Eagles, not any potential trade partners.

But if the 2022 salary becomes guaranteed on the third day of the 2021 league year, how could the Eagles get out with only the signing and option bonuses as dead cap in 2022? I think you may be confusing the 2021 and 2022 salaries? Because it would make sense for the 2021 salary to become fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2021 league year, but it makes less sense for the 2022 salary to become guaranteed on that day. It would also make sense for the 2022 salary to become guaranteed the third day of the 2022 league year, and would provide the out that Spotrac seems to think exists. I feel like gambling on Wentz in 2021 at the price of 2020 Rivers is worth a 3, because either Reich fixes him and he's the franchise QB who we got for a 3, or he doesn't and the Colts will be able to draft their next franchise QB and walk away from Wentz commitment free.

Considering that his issues seem to be poor playcalling for his skillset, trying to do too much, and mechanics (in a year where a pandemic eliminated the preseason and OTAs), and that he was MVP caliber with Reich as his OC, I think Wentz's best chance of turning it around is with the Colts, where he'll have a team that he doesn't have to carry to win and Reich has demonstrated the ability to tailor an offense to his skillset and has fixed his mechanical issues previously.

[Chaka]

Originally Posted by albany ed

At any rate, that's a lot of money to give a QB with a career 89 passer rating and a winning percentage of .514.

Reich would have to be very certain that he can turn him around.

Agreed. The good news is that if he’s still a good starting QB, he’d be a bargain to have him locked in at $24.5M for the next four years. And the downside is more limited, since his guarantees would only apply to the next two seasons at an average of $23.7M per (the third and fourth years are entirely unguaranteed – just straight salaries/roster bonuses).

It's worth noting that this contract structure would actually be somewhat consistent with some of Ballard’s other contracts, where the guarantees are all in the first couple years, leaving lots of flexibility at the backend. Look at the contracts for DeForest Buckner and Ryan Kelly – both have all of the guarantees in the first two years.

[Chaka]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

But if the 2022 salary becomes guaranteed on the third day of the 2021 league year, how could the Eagles get out with only the signing and option bonuses as dead cap in 2022? I think you may be confusing the 2021 and 2022 salaries? Because it would make sense for the 2021 salary to become fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2021 league year, but it makes less sense for the 2022 salary to become guaranteed on that day. It would also make sense for the 2022 salary to become guaranteed the third day of the 2022 league year, and would provide the out that Spotrac seems to think exists. I feel like gambling on Wentz in 2021 at the price of 2020 Rivers is worth a 3, because either Reich fixes him and he's the franchise QB who we got for a 3, or he doesn't and the Colts will be able to draft their next franchise QB and walk away from Wentz commitment free.

Considering that his issues seem to be poor playcalling for his skillset, trying to do too much, and mechanics (in a year where a pandemic eliminated the preseason and OTAs), and that he was MVP caliber with Reich as his OC, I think Wentz's best chance of turning it around is with the Colts, where he'll have a team that he doesn't have to carry to win and Reich has demonstrated the ability to tailor an offense to his skillset and has fixed his mechanical issues previously.

You make a good point – not sure why the $15M guarantee isn’t accounted for in the 2022 dead cap calculations at Spotrac. Honestly, I think they’ve simply overlooked that part of the guarantees when calculating their dead cap number. I ran a quick search and see that it’s been accounted for in this narrative breakdown on the CBS Sports website, which correctly states that the Eagles' dead cap in 2022 would be $39.5M:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/a...r%20his%202021

I note the numbers used by the agent in the above article include a few other discrepancies from the Spotrac calculations, so there may be nuances that one or the other have missed. The agent's take appears to be pretty consistent with what I've laid out in prior posts regarding cap hits, etc. to an acquiring team. And he seems to think that the cap numbers will make it difficult to find a taker for Wentz - so again, I think a third rounder would be a significant overpay.