The Daniel Jones effect is difficult to quantify

[Kray007]

PFF, as is their wont, assigned him a passing grade for the game…66.5, which ranked him 19th among Quarterbacks after week 1. Digging into their mountain of stats, I discover that only 3.3 percent of his passes were considered big time throws. His expected completion percentage of 75.9% was exactly the same as his actual completion percentage, which means that nobody was dropping balls. Under pressure, he completed 4 of 5 passes. Against the blitz, that number dropped to 68 percent and change.

All of which leads me to the not unsurprising revelation that there’s more that goes into playing the position than anything you can glean from statistics.

Daniel Jones doesn’t bring elite traits to the table. He doesn’t have an arm that will wow you, he isn’t a riverboat gambler. There’s nothing flashy about his game, we’re never going to see a jaw dropping, Anthony Richardson moment when he spins away from pressure, stumbles, and launches a 65 yard TD strike to Alec Pierce.

What he brings to the table is reliability and an unsurpassed work ethic. He recognizes defenses, makes solid pre snap reads, and manages to exploit an opponent’s weaknesses. He keeps the chains moving and extends drives, milking every last play for maximum benefit. If the choice is between forcing the ball into tight coverage 40 yards downfield and settling for a 10 yard crossing play with an 80 percent chance of success, he opts for the easy 1st down. He’s accurate and throws a ball that’s easy to catch; everything isn’t a 98 mph fast ball.

In other words, he’s a pro; and, sometimes, that’s the difference between losing 17-10 and winning 33-8.

[njcoltfan]

Originally Posted by Kray007

PFF, as is their wont, assigned him a passing grade for the game…66.5, which ranked him 19th among Quarterbacks after week 1. Digging into their mountain of stats, I discover that only 3.3 percent of his passes were considered big time throws. His expected completion percentage of 75.9% was exactly the same as his actual completion percentage, which means that nobody was dropping balls. Under pressure, he completed 4 of 5 passes. Against the blitz, that number dropped to 68 percent and change.

All of which leads me to the not unsurprising revelation that there’s more that goes into playing the position than anything you can glean from statistics.

Daniel Jones doesn’t bring elite traits to the table. He doesn’t have an arm that will wow you, he isn’t a riverboat gambler. There’s nothing flashy about his game, we’re never going to see a jaw dropping, Anthony Richardson moment when he spins away from pressure, stumbles, and launches a 65 yard TD strike to Alec Pierce.

What he brings to the table is reliability and an unsurpassed work ethic. He recognizes defenses, makes solid pre snap reads, and manages to exploit an opponent’s weaknesses. He keeps the chains moving and extends drives, milking every last play for maximum benefit. If the choice is between forcing the ball into tight coverage 40 yards downfield and settling for a 10 yard crossing play with an 80 percent chance of success, he opts for the easy 1st down. He’s accurate and throws a ball that’s easy to catch; everything isn’t a 98 mph fast ball.

In other words, he’s a pro; and, sometimes, that’s the difference between losing 17-10 and winning 33-8.

He kinda reminds me a little of Philip Rivers !!

[Dam8610]

The difference is that this is what complimentary football looks like. When you don't go 3 and out every series, your defense isn't tired, and can actually perform when on the field. That said, Jones had a few misfires and should've been picked off at least once. He definitely has things he can clean up. But if he can run a ball control offense that effectively all season, the Colts might be able to compete.

[CletusPyle]

Tom Brady made a lot of "not big time throws" I don't remember him being minimized and discounted for doing it! He executed Shane's plan to perfection, if he can continue to do that, the Colts are going to win a lot of games, and the media will continue to down play it, since most of them trashed him for years! When he is successful, it makes them look foolish, which is almost as enjoyable as watching our Colts win!

[Pez]

I didn't realize how mobile he is. Two plays stand out where it looked like he easily ran away from pressure and completed throws.

I never really got on the AR wagon. I'm of the opinion that Richardson, Rivers, Wentz, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Flacco have all been just wasted time.

I don't know much about football, but if he needs another year to learn behind a veteran before he is the guy, that means he isn't the guy. Trading AR for a pick will put us in a better situation than we're in now.

[Oldcolt]

They are not going to trade AR. They have to much draft capital and time capital invested in him to dump him for what, a 6th round pick. I am hopeful that this first game was an indication of who Jones really is and that I was completely wrong about him. One game against a total shit team doesn't convince me however and nobody seems to be convinced he can lead us to the promised land of a Super Bowl. If he can hit deep passes like he did Sunday on a consistent basis people may be wrong. I am happy to have something positive to root for.

[Hoopsdoc]

Originally Posted by Oldcolt

They are not going to trade AR. They have to much draft capital and time capital invested in him to dump him for what, a 6th round pick. I am hopeful that this first game was an indication of who Jones really is and that I was completely wrong about him. One game against a total shit team doesn't convince me however and nobody seems to be convinced he can lead us to the promised land of a Super Bowl. If he can hit deep passes like he did Sunday on a consistent basis people may be wrong. I am happy to have something positive to root for.

Yeah, it was a promising start but nothing more than that.

[Pez]

Originally Posted by Oldcolt

They are not going to trade AR. They have to much draft capital and time capital invested in him to dump him for what, a 6th round pick. I am hopeful that this first game was an indication of who Jones really is and that I was completely wrong about him. One game against a total shit team doesn't convince me however and nobody seems to be convinced he can lead us to the promised land of a Super Bowl. If he can hit deep passes like he did Sunday on a consistent basis people may be wrong. I am happy to have something positive to root for.

I 100% agree that they wont trade AR, and they wont do so because of the reasons you mentioned.

These are sunk costs. You make the statement that we might Only get a sixth rounder for him, suggesting that's what he's worth. So he is a sixth rounder with a $9M cap hit this year and a $10M cap hit next year.

I dunno how all this works, but just know I don't need to see anymore to know that AR is dead weight against our cap. I'd rather have the 6th rounder with a $1M cap hit to maybe make a play on special teams.

[Oldcolt]

Originally Posted by Pez

I 100% agree that they wont trade AR, and they wont do so because of the reasons you mentioned.

These are sunk costs. You make the statement that we might Only get a sixth rounder for him, suggesting that's what he's worth. So he is a sixth rounder with a $9M cap hit this year and a $10M cap hit next year.

I dunno how all this works, but just know I don't need to see anymore to know that AR is dead weight against our cap. I'd rather have the 6th rounder with a $1M cap hit to maybe make a play on special teams.

I get that. I just think there is a nonzero chance that AR hits it big. It depends on crap none of us are privy to. From what I can see from how he handles himself on the sideline AR doesn't appear to be sulking and seems genuinely into the team. If Jones can push the ball effectively downfield on a consistent basis it won't matter but if Jones reverts back to his Giant ways I want be able to see what we have in AR.

[Colts And Orioles]

Originally Posted by Pez

I 100% agree that they wont trade Anthony Richardson, and they wont do so because of the reasons that you mentioned.

o

Another reason why they won't trade Anthony Richardson is because of the fact that football is such a brutal sport, Daniel Jones' season can end in a single play at any time in the season. And if that did happen, Richardson, as erratic, inconsistent, and frustrating as he often has been, is still a young, mobile quarterback who always has a puncher's chance to play well for at least part of a game. Last year's game against the Patriots was an example, when he had a relatively mediocre game overall for 3 and-a-half quarters, but then his sheer will, determination, athleticism, and physical strength drove the team to the winning TD in the final minutes of the 4th quarter.

Peyton Manning was such a great quarterback that he could give a team the proverbial puncher's chance to beat superior teams because of his greatness. Richardson is not that ...... but Richardson's proverbial puncher's chance is the fact that his exceptional athleticism and physical strength give him a shot to overcome his own limitations in the game (erratic passing, trouble reading defenses, etc.) to still be good enough to pull out a win.


In short, it is better to have an Anthony Richardson waiting in the wings than to have a Mike Kirkland or a Curtis Painter waiting in the wings in case of an injury to the starting QB ...... at least with Richardson, the team still has a shot to overcome his limitations and mistakes, even if it is a long-shot. With a Mike Kirkland or a Curtis Painter, they have virtually no shot at all.