[sherck]

Prior to yesterday's Colt loss:

#1 Browns / 0 - 13 / SoS = 0.529
#2 Giants / 2 - 11 / SoS = 0.514
#3 Colts / 3 - 10 / SoS = 0.490
#4 49ers / 3 - 10 / SoS = 0.519
#5 Broncos / 4 - 9 / SoS = 0.486
#6 Texans / 4 - 9 / SoS = 0.510 (traded to the Browns)
#7 Bears / 4 - 9 / SoS = 0.553
#8 Bucs / 4 - 9 / SoS = 0.558

CIN / NYJ / WAS all with 5 wins.

Denver actually had a lower SoS than the Colts going into last night's game so it was pretty critical that they win and get to 5 wins. No chance of them getting ahead of us now unless we win our last 2 games.

The Giants have a pretty significantly higher SoS than the Colts do. If the Giants can get a 3rd win in one of their last 3 games (PHI, @ ARI, WAS) and the Colts can lose their last two (@ BAL, HOU), then we can end up with the #2 pick.

It is pretty hard for the SoS to change significantly this late in the season. 0.200 of a difference is a pretty big gap with only 3 weeks to play. Where the SoS ratings are now will most likely be very close to their final totals.

So, what the most likely scenarios look like. The Colts will get the #x pick if......

#2 Pick = Giants win at least one of their remaining 3 games and Colts lose their last 2 games.

#3 Pick = Giants lose out and Colts lose out -- OR -- Colts win one game and 49ers win one game while the Giants win no more than one more game.

#4 Pick = Colts win one game and 49ers lose out and Giants win no more than one more game.

#5 Pick = Would have to win both of our remaining games to get worst than the #4 pick. Too many variables to contend with.

So, assuming that we will not beat Baltimore next week, the Colts can do no worst that the #4 pick in the draft and could still move up to the #2 pick if we lose out and Eli Manning and the Giants can surprise one of the Eagles, the Cardinals or the Redskins.

Go Giants. Go Ravens (gasp.....choke.....puke).

Walk Worthy,