[sherck]

Currently on 2018 Roster:

Jabaal Sheard / IND / 29 years old
John Simon / IND / 27 years old
Terell Basham / IND / 24 years old
Jermaine Grace / IND / 24 years old

Potential Free Agents:

Tier A:
Barkevious Mingo / IND / 27 years old
Junior Galette / WAS / 30 years old

Tier B:
Kareem Martin / ARI / 26 years old

The pickings in free agency for OLBs are pretty slim in the under 30 crowd. There is a large match-up of no names and not many stats to pick from. I found a few guys that I like but I am not sure that the best option is to not just re-sign Mingo as a depth guy behind Simon, Sheard and hopefully a top pick rookie.

Mingo had a pretty solid year playing the pass rush better than he played the run. He only sets the edge okay but he does actually cover TEs fairly well when asked to do so and came on as a pass rusher over the last half of the season. He is not whom I want starting since I think Simon does just about everything better than he does (when healthy) but I like him well enough as a depth guy and he showed over the second half of the season that he can give quality minutes of play at an NFL level.

If the Colts actually want someone who is better than Mingo, the only guy who might hit free agency in that category is, IMO, Junior Galette who played for WAS this season after missing both the 2015 season (torn left Achillies) and 2016 season (torn right Achillies) on a low “show me” contract.

Galette was backup to Ryan Kerrigan as a 3-4 OLB[RUSH]. He played a total of 406 snaps (full time defender plays between 800-1000) of which 257 were pass rush snaps. Spotrac is crediting him with 16 sacks + QB Hits (3.0 sacks, 13 hits) for one 1 QB hit for every 16 pass rush snaps which is pretty solid (if someone knows where to find current year “hurries” stats…).

The downside on Galette is that he is 29 years old (turning 30 in March 2018) so may already be over Ballard’s age threshold. He is coming back from 2 lost seasons so he does have less wear & tear on the body than other 30 year old defenders who have been out of college for 8 seasons but he will still be 30 years old for the 2018 season.

Kareem Martin has experience as a 3-4 OLB[EDGE] with ARI and was solid but not great across the board this year. However, he was unable to win much playing time in previous years and was sharing time with rookie Haason Riddick opposite Chandler Jones in their lineup for 2017. He only has 3.5 sacks for his 4 year career to go along with his 42 tackles and appears to be a full-time depth guy but he is honestly the best of the rest. Which is sad. There is virtually no one after those guys who is a 3-4 OLB whom is more than just JAG. Or terrible. This is a very weak free agency class for pass rushers.

I think the best plan is to retain Mingo on a modest 2-year contract for about $3m -$4m each year with the first year guaranteed. He is the type of depth player whom you end up relying on to do a lot of low-profile things on your team (special teams, short yardage packages, extra pass rush packages) and he is experienced enough to understand how to maximize his playing time. I think we could end up doing much worse than Mingo for depth.

I hope that we end up picking pass rush with a 1st or 2nd round draft pick. If we do, then my 2018 depth chart looks like:

OLB[RUSH] = Jabaal Sheard / Rookie Draft Pick (1st or 2nd round)
OLB[EDGE] = John Simon / Barkevious Mingo
OLB Depth = Terell Basham

I know that the Colts ended up with only 25 sacks for the season (2nd lowest in NFL) and my plan would not be making many changes to the depth chart of the guys who should account for the majority of them. However, there is very little that could be done on the free agency market to improve the group (in the under 30 years old crowd) and using multiple high draft picks on OLB when there are so many other holes to fill in 2018 seems fraught with peril.

We have to hope that either a new, different defensive system will be able to bring production with many of the same guys or if Monachino is retained, that his guys play better with another year together. Getting a high pick rookie who can get after the QB will improve the whole group as well since focus would be taken off Sheard (and Simon, and Mingo and everyone below them) in order to focus it on the new threat.

Also, a revamped ILB corps who can cover better (QB has to hold the ball longer) and pursue better (easier to set the edge knowing you have GOOD inside run support) and might even be able to blitz effectively up the middle on occasion will help out this OLB corps a ton as well.

Pass rush as a whole was a weakness for the Colts in 2017. I don’t know that I would say that OLBs as a whole were a weakness but pass rush was. A top end rookie added to the guys we have would put the Colts in a pretty good spot for the group, IMO.

So, in my mind, the question comes down to: Is Bradley Chubb THAT much better a prospect than Arden Key, Harold Landry, Sam Hubbard or Clelin Ferrell? Most of those guys are projected to be selected in the mid to late 1st round allowing the Colts to trade down and collect additional 2nd round and 3rd round draft picks in order to fortify the team across the board. It would be great to be able to add a OLB, ILB, OT and perhaps even one more spot (OG, CB, S, WR) 1st/2nd round draft pick stud in the top 55 picks.

Anyway, bottom line is that there are not many free agents available on par or better than Mingo hitting free agency so I think we should re-sign Mingo, draft a rookie early and move on to trying to fix other parts of the team.

Walk Worthy,