At the end of the day, if the salary cap for 2021 is $190m, then there are 13 teams that basically have zero cap space to sign anyone not already under contract, their 2021 rookie class, 2021 practice squad and have some space for in season signings due to injury.
No money to sign their departing UFAs.
No money to sign any new UFA free agents.
Hard to even RFA tag any of their folks.
Sure, it is easy to say "it is all funny money" as if pushing a ton of cap space into the future is easy for a lot of teams to do. It is not. Unlike when congress deficit spends, the bill comes due in the NFL.
Back of the napkin math says that there is about $620m in cap space to chase after among all teams combined in 2021 with the cap at $190m.
According to Spotrac, in 2021, the top paid 32 free agents counted a total of $452m against the 2020 salary cap.
So just the top 32 free agents account for 73% of the available 2021 free cap space if they all signed contracts the exact same as they had in 2020.
Had the salary cap gone as projected pre-COVID and been set at $210m for 2021, there would be an additional $640m in free cap space. COVID basically cut the free cap space in half for 2021.
Something has got to give.
My guess is that what is going to give are the player's contracts as free agents in 2021 and perhaps beyond.
I think good players are going to be signed to much smaller contracts than they hoped for. Lots and lots of "1 year prove it deals" even for good players as they hope the market improves in 2022.
A smaller cap is absolutely not something the players union wants.
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