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Originally Posted by IndyNorm
You know saying Williams being a Lincoln Riley QB or that Maye is like Trubisky or Howell (not sure why you dragged him into this) is the exact same thing as saying we shouldn't draft Stroud b/c he's a Ryan Day/OSU QB right? Only Riley's QBs have had a lot more success in the NFL than any Ryan Day/OSU QBs.
Also, Ballard has shown that he values traits well above a player's film and/or production. At least at other positions he has (DE, WR). Hopefully he views QBs differently or else I'm afraid we'll end up with Richardson.
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No, saying that Lincoln Riley QBs have struggled in the NFL is not the same as saying that OSU has not sent many QBs to the NFL. Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Spencer Rattler, and now Caleb Williams. Mayfield and Murray were both the #1 overall pick in their respective draft class. Mayfield was definitely a disappointment for the Browns, and the Cardinals hesitantly and almost begrudgingly resigned Kyler Murray, originally putting a film study clause in his contract, he seems disappointing as well. Hurts was an MVP candidate this year, but I'm inclined to believe that has more to do with an incredibly talented supporting cast and fantastic injury luck than it does with Hurts being an elite QB. The jury is definitely still out on Hurts. Rattler faded into obscurity after looking like a future #1 pick for a time, and did nothing to re-establish his draft value away from Lincoln Riley.
As far as Maye goes, I suppose it's fair to not link Trubisky and Howell to him, as they were Larry Fedora QBs, but Mack Brown QBs don't inspire much more confidence. Vince Young and who? Colt McCoy? Not exactly world beaters.
As for Ryan Day QBs, that Burrow guy is doing pretty okay, and the Bears don't seem to want to get rid of Justin Fields in favor of one of this year's QBs, despite the current front office not being the one that drafted him. Realistically, Fields is the only true test case of Ryan Day QBs at this point, and the jury is still out on him.
All that said, my point was more that Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are the shiny new toys right now. They're being talked about now the way CJ Stroud and Bryce Young were being talked about this time last year. Prospect fatigue is real, and you can expect it to set in with anyone, especially QBs. People start finding negative things about them just to stop having to talk about them. Don't be surprised if at this time next year, we're talking about the high risk, non-franchise QB prospects that are Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, but don't worry, the shiny new toys of the 2025 draft class will save us all.
Regarding Ballard's evaluation style, he does value traits and athleticism at most positions, but when he's drafting high, he tends to take players that have the film to match the traits they display on the field. If he was going to draft an Anthony Richardson type, he'd do it in Round 2 or 3, not in the top 5 of the draft. Furthermore, we can look at the 2 QBs Ballard has drafted to get some insight as to what he values at the position, Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger. Eason had a cannon arm, good accuracy and ball placement, not much athleticism, even less pocket presence, and needed to learn how to throw a touch pass. Ehlinger had a noodle arm, great short and intermediate accuracy, good athleticism, decent pocket presence, and knew how to vary the speed of the balls that his limited arm could throw. These were also developmental QBs drafted in the 4th and 6th rounds, respectively, but what I can gather from it is Ballard definitely values accuracy and ball placement, he probably values arm strength a bit higher than he does athleticism, but I also think he values pocket presence and the ability to escape and make a play pretty highly, because he only drafted Eason in Round 4 despite publicly saying he had a higher grade on him, and he drafted Ehlinger, who most had as undraftable that year. Stroud and Young are pretty even in all of those categories, which is where you get to the physical traits, and Stroud wins out because he's a legitimate 6'3" and Young is an illegitimate 6'0" (I'd be more surprised if his measurement came in at 6'0" than if his measurement came in at 5'9"). I could be completely wrong, but I'd be shocked if the Colts have any interest in any QB that isn't Stroud or Young. Will we hear a lot that that is the case? Probably, but this is draft season. If Ballard said the sky was blue and water was wet, I'd check the veracity of both statements until April 30.