Quote:
Originally Posted by sherck
I don't know. However, I do know that of all the double digit sackmasters for 2018:
15.5 sacks in 2018 = Chris Jones, drafted 37th overall in 2016
14.5 sacks in 2018 = Danielle Hunter, drafted 88th overall in 2015
13.0 sacks in 2018 = Frank Clark, drafted 63rd overall in 2015
13.0 sacks in 2018 = T.J. Watt, drafted 30th overall in 2017
13.0 sacks in 2018 = Dee Ford, drafted 23rd overall in 2014 (in the ballpark)
12.0 sacks in 2018 = Cameron Jordan, drafted 24th overall in 2011 (in the ballpark)
10.5 sacks in 2018 = Calais Campbell, drafted 50th overall in 2008
10.5 sacks in 2018 = DeMarcus Lawrence, drafted 34th overall in 2014
10.5 sacks in 2018 = Jarrad Reed, drafted 49th overall in 2016
10.5 sacks in 2018 = Kyle Frackrell, drafted 88th overall in 2016
10.0 sacks in 2018 = Geno Atkins, drafted 120th overall in 2010
(11 men drafted around or lower than the 26th overall pick)
That said, sure, Aaron Donald, J.J. Watt, Von Miller, Myles Garrett, Ryan Kerrigan, Jason Pierre Paul, Chandler Jones, Khalil Mack, DeForest Buckner, Bradley Chubb, and Fletcher Cox (11 men) were all drafted in the top half of the first round.
But half and half? While I totally agree that the men drafted in the top half of the first round have a much BETTER chance of becoming an impact player / sackmaster, that does not preclude a guy drafted lower from becoming one as well through player development and great coaching.
By your logic, Roquan Smith should have been gifted DROY honors at the beginning of the season because he was drafted high. No way Leonard could be an impact player as a 2nd rounder.
Have faith in Ballard's talent evaluation process. He has done pretty good so far.
Walk Worthy,
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22 guys got 10+ sacks last year. Half were drafted in the Top 15 of their respective draft classes. 64% were First Round picks. 82% were Top 50 picks. That shows that if you want a premier pass rusher, investing in the position early in the draft is important.
The DL talent in this class is expected to move early, with possibly all 5 of the top 5 picks being DL, and as many as 10 of the top 15 being DL. The talent is there, it's just being recognized and will likely be plucked off the board before the Colts have an opportunity to pick. That's not to say Ballard couldn't hit another home run with a guy like Charles Omenihu, that's just recognizing that the Colts played themselves out of a chance at the premium pass rush talent in this class. They're not getting a Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, Josh Allen, Rashan Gary, Ed Oliver, Clelin Ferrell, Montez Sweat, Jeffery Simmons, and probably not Jachai Polite or Christian Wilkins (Dexter Lawrence will probably be gone, too, but the Colts aren't likely to draft him). That's all of the consensus first round DL talent, and it's all likely to go top 20, maybe one falls into the 21-25 range. Obviously none of us know who is going to be successful from this class and who is going to bust, but I'd feel a lot more confident in the chances of the Colts getting a premiere pass rusher out of this draft if they come away with a Montez Sweat or Clelin Ferrell than if they don't.