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Originally Posted by Chaka
Assuming by “business decision” you are referring to a decision to maximize return towards a long term goal (multiple Super Bowls, long term dominance), then I personally don’t see a giant difference between the two. In my view, if you constantly and effectively play the angles and percentages, you’ll inevitably emerge on top.
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No, by “business decision” I’m referring to prioritizing getting the best return for dollar spent over the end product on the field. You don’t get extra points in playoff games because you have a really efficient roster and a ton of unused cap space. What actually happens is your weakness at WR and your lack of a pass rush get exposed. The NFL is highly competitive and the margins for error are so thin that always prioritizing the future is going to almost always have you coming up short.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chaka
The entire casino industry is founded on a similar principle.
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This is an asinine argument. The casino industry is built on proven mathematical statistics. I can point you to the house’s statistical advantage for any table game in the casino. In the long term the math will always win out. Please show me where any such thing exists for NFL roster building. I know 32 teams who would love to have that knowledge. And don’t even bring up “Moneyball” BS or I’ll point out the differences between its applicability to baseball and football and the fact it’s storied inventor never won a title with it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chaka
Ultimately, the whole thing relies upon drafting well. I just expect that in a few years we will have a LOT of people who will need and deserve to be paid. If I’m wrong about that, then yes I guess it would have been better to have spent our money on free agents. But, to me, free agency is more of a last resort.
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To me the biggest thing you (and Ballard) are wrong about is the idea that Ballard is going to draft so well that he is going to create a long term dynasty that wins multiple championships over the long term. To me it’s simply a fools errand. The NFL rules are setup to specifically stop that. From free agency, to the salary cap, to the draft, to even the small variation in scheduling, the NFL is setup to bring teams back to the pack. The only modern day “dynasty” has been NE and they don’t operate at all how you advocate. Ballard will have to prove himself to be head and shoulders better at the draft than any GM in NFL history for it to work. Otherwise I see the limit as being the Polian Colts and Ted Thompson Packers. That isn’t all bad certainly. But I think most would agree that those teams should have more than one title each.