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Houston Texans (9-7) at Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
8:15 p.m. ET, Saturday | ESPN | Spread: HOU -1.5 (47.5)
Storyline to watch: ) The stakes in this year's game between these 2 teams could not be more different from those in last season's finale. The No. 1 overall pick in the draft was on the line in Week 18 in the 2022 season, with the Colts losing and knocking Houston into the No. 2 choice. This season, the winner of this game goes to the playoffs and wildly accelerates its rebuilding effort ahead of 2024. - - - Stephen Holder
Bold Prediction: ) The Texans will win by more than 10 points, as quarterback C.J. Stroud will throw for more than 350 yards. The Texans are a completely different team than the one that faced the Colts in Week 2, and in that matchup Stroud threw for 384 yards. The Colts lean on running the ball, and the Texans have the third-best run defense in the NFL. Once they stop the run, the Texans will run away with it. - - - DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to Know: ) The Colts allow the 3rd-highest completion percentage on throws of 20-plus yards downfield (46%.) Stroud has the 2nd-highest QBR (99), the 3rd-highest completion percentage (57.1%), 5 passing touchdowns, and 0 interceptions on such throws.
Matchup X Factor: ) Texans edge-rusher Will Anderson Jr ...... he's making a late
Defensive Rookie of the Year push with 2.0 sacks last week. He has a 26% pass-rush win rate, which ranks 3rd among all edge rushers. - - - Walder
What's at Stake: ) The winner of this season-finale will make the playoffs. And if the Jaguars lose on Sunday, the winner would also clinch the AFC South division title ...... but the loser of this game will be eliminated from the postseason.
Betting Nugget: ) The Colts are 5-1 ATS as favorites this season. The Texans are 4-1 ATS as road underdogs this season, with 4 straight covers.
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Moody's Pick: ) Texans 31, Colts 23
Walder's Pick: ) Texans 30, Colts 16
FPI Prediction: ) INDIANAPOLIS, 51.6% (By an Average of 0.6 Points)
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/pag...ts-2023-season
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