[sherck]

5 games to go and here is how the AFC looks:

1st Seed = KC (9 - 2)
2nd Seed = NE (8 - 3)
3rd Seed = HOU (8 – 3)
4th Seed = PIT (7 – 3 – 1)
5th Seed = SD (8 – 3)
6th Seed = BAL (6 – 5)
7th Spot = IND (6 – 5)
8th Spot = TEN (5 – 6)
9th Spot = DEN (5 – 6)
10th Spot = CIN (5 – 6)
11th Spot = MIA (5 – 6)

First, let’s talk the AFC South. Houston is 2 games ahead with 5 games to play and not many rough games left. Their remaining schedule:

vs CLE (4 – 6 – 1))
vs IND (6 – 5)
@ NYJ (3 – 8)
@ PHI (5 – 6)
vs JAX (3 – 8)

The only team remaining on their schedule with a winning record is us and even if we win against them, they would still be one game up on us. We would require at least one of CLE, NYJ, PHI or JAX to beat them and then it would come down to tiebreakers. If that happens (we win out and HOU losses to us and one other), then the tiebreakers:

1st Tiebreaker = Head to Head = Draw (each team would be 1 – 1 against each other)
2nd Tiebreaker = Division Record = IND 1 division loss; HOU 2 division losses = Colts advantage

So, there it is. To win the division, we need to win out and HOU needs to lose to us and one other team. I think it is unlikely but @ PHI could be a tough game if they are fighting for a wildcard spot in late December and who knows what team CLE will field this next week. It could happen.

Second, Wildcard. We are currently on the outside looking in in the 7th spot. HOWEVER, the remaining schedules for both BAL and IND:

IND:

@ JAX (3 – 8)
@ HOU (8 – 3)
vs DAL (6 – 5)
vs NYG (3 – 8)
@ TEN (5 – 6)

BAL:

@ ATL (4 – 7)
@ KC (9 – 2)
vs TB (4 – 7)
@ SD (8 – 3)
vs CLE (4 – 6 – 1)

Of the two schedules, BAL has a MUCH harder road to walk with AWAY games against KC and SD still in their future. Heck, almost all the teams could give them issues as either Fitzmagic or Fitztragic will show up for TB and CLE appears to be world beaters one week and the same old Cleveland Browns the next week. Who knows who shows up?

I think it is very likely that BAL losses at least 2 if not 3 of their final five games. As long as we can do one better than them, then we have the inside road to the 6th AFC seed.


TL : DR:

- We need HOU to lose to us and to one more team and if we win out, we would capture the AFC South.

- We need to lose no more than 1 more game to have, what I believe is, the inside track to the 6th AFC Seed. If we lose 2 games or more, we will probably not make the playoffs. Too many AFC teams one game behind us that could catch us to make the call at this point.

So, we don’t need perfection out of the Colts but they cannot afford to lose more than one more game if they want to be playing in Jan.

Walk Worthy,