[Racehorse]

Originally Posted by rm1369

Chaka I’ll admit it would be pretty damn hard to answer your question, but that’s fine because it isn’t testing my statements anyway. My issue isn’t that you can’t give up on a guy after a year because he may blow up elsewhere, it’s that teams rarely give up on a QB (other than very late picks) after one year. If you want me to compile a list of guys that showed enough that teams kept them around a few years, but that never developed into franchise guys, I can. Going to be awhile though because it will be a long ass list. And that’s my point.

It’s very often not obvious what you have until they see the field for real games and you see if they progress. That’s why Brady didn’t see the field until Bledsoe was hurt. The greatest coach in history didn’t recognize Brady as a HOFer at practice. Jackson didn’t start until Flaco was hurt. Warner didn’t become the starter until Green was hurt. Yes it’s possible he’s so bad you move on after a year (bad pick) and it’s possible he’s so good you bench JB this year for him. But BY FAR the most realistic scenario is that you still see promise in the guy and he becomes your starter next year. Unless he is absolutely awful you don’t draft another high QB next year, you use the picks to shore up the rest of the team to try to lessen the load on a young QB. So that makes it at least a 2 year investment. And if the guy shows flashes of good play mixed with some bad play (like many do) then it’s possible he gets another year to see if he improves.

I don’t want the team drafting a guy because the timing is right. I want them drafting a guy because they absolutely believe in him. If they decide to move on from him after a year then they spectacularly fucked up their evaluation of him. I don’t see how that is in anyway arguable. And I certainly don’t see that as a plan. I’d much rather they target and go get a guy they believe in than giving up 2-3 years on their 4th or 5th choice because he happened to be available.

That all makes sense. However, how much capital do you think is too much? That seems to be the sticking point.