Anthony Richardson
With the influx of so many successful toolsy QBs in recent years, teams are having to re-evaluate how they look at quarterbacks. With the success of Mahomes, Allen, Hurt, and Jackson; teams are looking for the next big lottery ticket and Richardson is a huge lottery ticket.
Richardson is a one-year starter for Florida and only 20 years old. 53% completion with 17 TDS and 9 ints. Comparisons have been made to Cam Newton, although Richardson is a better athlete, he is not Cam Newton. Newton was much more advanced than Richardson was when he came out. I will say he throws with better touch than Cam did coming out. Cam came out a bit later though, he had two years at Florida, a year at junior college, then he went to Auburn and blew up. He had almost two more years to develop than Richardson.
So with mediocre stats why is Richardson being talked about? Most will think it is his combine performance and athleticism, which is some of it. He scores a perfect 10 on the RAS, he set all the records for QB performance at the combine. His arm strength will likely be top five in the NFL and like a pro golfer with a natural swing he had a natural throwing motion despite his lower half being out of sync with his arm. So he has the size and tools to play the QB position, but what about the mental part?
First I will say Richardson ran pro-style offense. This isn't some gimmicky RPO offense with inflated stats like say Malick Willis ran. These are pro concepts. The problem is Florida did not have a QB coach and they had a former oline coach calling the plays. Not what I would call the ideal setup for a raw QB needing help developing. I’ll start with…
Games
Richardson vs UK
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_RO6xkaR2U
This game received some hype as a game exposing Richardson. I noticed that Kentucky is running a lot of inverted zones and they seemed to confuse Richardson. AR will see a lot of zone and disguised zone coverages in the future. Zone rushing, zone backfields. Because of his running ability teams probably will not have defenders run man and turn their back on such a dangerous QB in the open field.
Back to the game, UK was switching between cover-2 and inverted zones or inverted zone robber, AR seemed confused by them. Below you can see that there was some miscommunication as the receiver wants to run deep and AR is throwing short, also he expected the corner to drop deep but instead he is going to cover the flat in the inverted zone. This INT made AR question what he was seeing the rest of the day and be very hesitant.
Richardson vs Tenn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOi4foYTeNk
Richardson had some struggles in this game at first. Tennessee threw some inverted zones at him and he panicked and started running when he first saw him. However, he then settled down and the next time he saw that inverted zone he made the correct read and threw a completion. He was able to isolate his guy within the confusing zone.
This tells me that he gets what he is looking at on the sideline and is able to make adjustments in game. He was growing and wasn’t making the same mistake over and over. This is a very good sign.
Richardson vs FSU
I would post my thoughts on this but I think this post sums it up nicely.
https://twitter.com/fb_filmanalysis/...L8ardaxv32vrGQ
Accuracy
Richardson throws a lot of highballs. Which usually indicates that there is an issue with his feet. His arm and feet seem out of synch and his arm is so strong it seems to work against his feet. He often takes too many steps and is not efficient with his feet. Richardson did get better as the year went on. Early on his throws were one speed and he was throwing fastballs to everyone everywhere. But by the second half of the season he was throwing with more touch and layering balls into different areas of the field. Throwing to points where only the receiver could get them.
Another thing I noticed. Florida receivers drop a lot of balls, and I mean throws they should have caught. They also seem to end up in the same area quite a bit. This is either poor scheme or they are not running the right routes. I mean WTF are they doing here, two quick outs in the same throwing lane.
Their best receiver was a transfer from Arizona St. Three drops stuck out to me this game: 0:50, 1:32, and 2:00. Keep this in mind;
if Richardson had just two more completions per game, he would have ended the year with a 61% completion rate.
However, you should not forget that he was also really inaccurate at times. Yes, his receivers dropped a lot of balls, but he also had some really bad throws as well. He will need to fix this at the next level, in both throwing from the pocket and on the run.
Awareness
These are all the intangibles that make up a QB. Pass rush feel, using your eyes, maneuvering within the pocket, etc.
Richardson uses his eyes very well, and was able to look off defenders or lead them with his eyes to help his receivers get open. Remember, he does and will face a lot of zone defenses. This is a big skill to have.
AR has a pretty good feel for the pass rush and is able to navigate within the pocket fairly well. Although sometimes I think he takes too many steps and sometimes he will push himself back into danger when he should just settle into where he is. This can develop over time, so I would say this is a developing skill. He is comfortable going through progressions and I have seen him get up to four if he has the time to do so. I think this will get better with more experience.
I would say as a pocket passer his biggest hurdle will be settling his feet down and making sure his throwing motion is correct. That should be priority number one in his development.
Sum Up
So why is Richardson being considered top ten? He has athleticism you only see at the position every 5-10 years. He has a top-tier arm that allows him to push the ball anywhere on the football field, he can make every throw, he has demonstrated the ability to adapt and learn from game situations, read coverage, use his eyes to lead defenders, throw with anticipation, layer the ball to all three levels, Good (not great) pocket presence, and make improv plays.
Richardson's biggest issues are a lack of experience, mechanics not aligning between his feet and arm creating inaccuracy, and a lack of consistency. Consistency is his biggest enemy right now and will be in the foreseeable future. For every wow throw, there is another that is equally as bad. He shows flashes and then he has just as many lows. Honestly, its what you expect from a raw first-year starter.
Final Conclusion
AR is a lottery ticket. Yeah, he could bust, but would you rather shoot for the moon or keep it kinda safe? Playing in the AFC the next decade is going to be tough, you have Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Jackson, Watson, and Lawrence. You either need a scary defense or a damn good QB to compete with that lot. This is where interviews and personality come in. Does he have the work ethic to reach his potential? Josh Allen did, but Jamarcus Russell did not. If he does reach his potential, whooo boy you hit the lottery. Steichen has said he wants a QB that is going to work and is obsessed with football. He will be going off the interviews they do with him. What he determines, we will find out in a few weeks.
Why pick him? Before Jalen Hurts, I would have seen Richardson as a guy who would be a wasted pick. I did not think Hurts would become anything, he just couldn’t get his passing together. But Steichen made him into a good QB. With the success of Allen and now Hurts, project QBs are not as big a longshot as they once were. I also think we have a great coach to help with that QB. So that said, why not try for the guy with the highest upside? Go big or go home.
*I'd like to include more graphics but there is a limit of four per post