Quote:
Originally Posted by rm1369
Let’s look at it based on the likely scenarios:
1) Brissett is great. Top 10 QB. Then the team has a bargain for 2020 and time to lock him up without resorting to the franchise tag immediately. Or they can make him prove he’s the real deal and franchise him the next season if necessary. Win for the team.
2) Brissett is a mid to low level starter. Game manager. The team has him locked up for one more year at about the appropriate price. They can cut him, trade him, or keep him for the next year while deciding how to move forward at the position. The team has some flexibility and some stability. Slight win for the team.
3) Brissett sucks. The team loses in that it spent money it didn’t need to, but the long term cap hit is minimal. Slight loss for the team.
The worst the team ends up with is some dead cap money for one year. The other scenarios are a win for them. Now play those same scenarios out without the extension. 1 and 2 get worse for the team IMO. The team is only better off if Brissett is really bad. And the worst case outcome for the team is much worse without an extension. Locking up Brissett to a market value deal after one decent season is the worst case scenario to me. Brissett would be paid on a projection of what he COULD become. It happens all the time with younger QBs. Doing that would have real long term consequences to the team. Way beyond the consequences of the extension he just signed.
I’m very surprised that you are ok with paying him market value after one season. That’s a risky proposition to me - unless he just sucks.
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Here’s my problem with that analysis – it could apply to any fourth year QB. Why not argue just as passionately that we provide the same contract to Paxton Lynch then? Or how about Brett Hundley or Nathan Peterman? (I just looked up a bunch of backup QBs who all about the same age and scheduled to be free agents next year). Maybe we should lock one of them down with a big contract before they hit the market too.
All I’m trying to highlight by such a ridiculous idea is that the key difference is in the likelihood of each of the three outcomes you’ve identified, and back to my original point that Brissett hasn’t shown very much so far, so I don’t understand why we’re paying him like he has.
As far as paying him market value after one season, I largely agree with you on outside free agents. With an inside free agent who’s already been here for two years (and started one of those seasons), I lean more towards agreeing with Spaceman that one year should be enough to know what we’ve got with him.