Tagging Jones and signing Pierce
 

I see a lot of people in the media are arguing that Ballard got it wrong, that he should have tagged Pierce and let Jones dangle his toes in free agency. The premise is that Jones, coming off an injury plagued season would ply his goods, learn that teams didn’t value him as highly as he valued himself, then slunk back to Indy, chastised, tail between his legs.

Personally, I think Ballard got it right, but I’m interested in what the rest of you think.

I think that, if you don’t have a Quarterback, you don’t have anything. I think that, even with the injuries, Daniel Jones would have been the hottest name in free agency. If he had awakened this morning as a free agent, he would have been packing his bags, this afternoon.

Someone would have offered up a mega million dollar contract, and no one from his camp would have bothered with the courtesy of inquiring whether the Colts might match it. In the NFL, teams don’t do the dirty work of negotiating contracts for other teams. When they negotiate with a free agent and reach a deal, they expect him to sign on the bottom line.

That’s why it’s unlikely that Jones gains much traction in free agent talks with other teams. 31 teams know that, whatever the final number turns out to be, Ballard will suck it up and match.

At this exact moment, it’s impossible to know just what these deals mean in terms of the cap. We presume, but don’t know that Jones will ink a new contract. We don’t know how Pierce’s deal is structured, what his first year cap number will be.

Right now, after trading Pittman, they’re $23 Million, and change, under the cap. That will, of course, change when Pierce’s number emerges from the mist.

That having been said, it’s hard to see much how advantage could have been gained from prioritizing Pierce. His new contract’s average annual value is $28.5 Million. The cost of tagging him would have been right around that number, so its a wash. Hanging the transition tag on Jones, however, might have saved us a bundle…depending on how it plays out. At the very most, we’re on the hook for $37 Million and change. Without the certainty of his return, Ballard, facing a hard deadline, might have caved and met his agent’s demand of $50 Million.

There was no ‘good’ move as far as the Colts are concerned. What you say is true but it is also true that the team that was going to offer him mega millions can still do so and hamstring us financially if we decide to match. This is a bed that Ballard made.

Signing Jones was always going to hamstring us, financially. .it’s a price you pay for having a Quarterback worth more than a bucket of warm spit.

In the last ten years, no player tagged with the transition has changed teams. Only one, Kyle Fuller, even received an offer from another club.

As far as this being a bed Ballard made, a dozen other General Managers would love to hop into that bed.

Agreed. I just don't think it is a compliment to say he is better than 12 out of 32 general managers in the NFL. To me you made my point

A dozen GM’s already have their guy. Brett Veach, in KC doesn’t need a Quarterback. Twenty would love to have Jones, but most don’t have the cap space to pursue. They’re stuck in Quarterback purgatory, shuffling from Kyler Murray to Tua Tagavailoa to Joe Flacco.

Just how good Ballard is is a question that’ll play out over the next few seasons. He finally has a Quarterback, and the test will be how well he juggles the cap and adds enough talent to propel the team into legit Super Bowl contention.

Man, can we move the goal posts any further for this guy? Plenty of GMs have QB issues. Ballard was screwed by thinking he had a HOF caliber QB on the roster, but after a season or two he’s been in no different position than the majority of GMs. It’s his philosophy that has put the team in the position it’s been in. Nothing else. Both teams in the SB went from HOF QBs to no QB to the SB in less time that Ballard has had. So what we start the clock for Ballard now to determine if he’s good? For him and him only nearly a decade of mediocrity means nothing? I swear the man is teflon. I can’t wait to hear next year’s excuses.

I don’t have to move the goalposts any farther than the 8-2 record the day Jones got hurt. Ballard assembled a team that was loaded with talent but couldn’t overcome a double barreled disaster at Quarterback.

Philosophy has nothing to do with his inability to find an upper echelon Quarterback. Most successful GM’s stumble onto one, then get labeled a genius because luck gobsmacked them in the face like a lemon meringue pie in a Three Stooges short.

If Andrew Luck hadn’t retired or if Patrick Mahomes had been taking snaps from Ryan Kelly, there would be a couple more shiny Lombardi Trophies on the team’s mantlepiece. Instead, we’ve been in a position where we’ve shuffled from one nonentity to another.

And, yeah, the Patsies and the Seahags rebounded from oblivion to glory. But, they didn’t do it with Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco at the helm. They didn’t do it starting their third string QB.

The pinnacle of success after 9 years - a stretch going 8-2 yet still missing the playoffs. Maybe we should hang a banner. We’ll see what the new excuse is.

It’s funny how many other teams have found more success than Ballard’s teams. In your mind he has somehow, through no fault of his own, been unusually restricted at the QB position. While other teams are lucky, Ballard is skilled but ohh so unlucky. I’m very curious, since it wasn’t Ballards philosophy that led to Minschew, Flacco, Wentz, and Ryan, what is it that you think led to them being QBs for the Colts? I’ve said before if it’s all luck then why do you want such an unlucky GM controlling everything?

The Rams got pretty damn lucky too. And let’s add SF and TB to the list of teams successfully replacing QBs very recently. Hell for fun I’ll go through how many teams have made the playoffs after changing QBs since Lucks retirement. We already have two SB winners. Bet there have been quite a few playoff teams. All of them I’m sure got lucky or experienced some degree of difficulty beyond what Ballard has though. Right? Shit edited to add Denver. So all 4 teams in the conference finals this year have replaced QBs in less time than Ballard has had. And I’m sure you have an excuse for each one.

I agree that Ballard played it the right way. I had concerns; I was wrong. A glass half full attitude can be a powerful thing.

What's the threshold for these dudes keeping their jobs? Is a wild card berth sufficient? Does it need to be a division title and home playoff game? Does it need to be 1 playoff game victory? Does it need to be a deep run?

Given the history of this organization the last decade, combined with Jones' full history in addition with his half season last year, what's the most likely outcome for the Indianapolis Colts?

Ballard's strategy here appears to have been sound but I can't even start to think about another cycle of 3-4 years with that guy until something changes in a meaningful way. IMO he only has 1 year to accomplish that, with a QB that historically is questionable and has genuine durability issues.

Originally, I was dead set against tagging Jones and risk losing Pierce to free agency. I say this without insider knowledge. Maybe Jones was firm on a huge guaranteed multi year contract, maybe Pierce stated that he wanted to remain a Colts and if they offered a decent contract, he'd sign it. Since they have both players for next season, I have to say I was wrong about how Ballard handled it. I didn't think they'd keep Pierce once they tagged Jones. Jones IMO is still a question mark. He never had enough games against quality opponents to convince me he's the real deal. Add to that his injury, and he's a big risk. There's a couple of QBs that you could have gotten for a song, since their previous team is on the hook for millions. I really don't believe there would have been huge competition for Jones, but that's only my opinion. I don't like losing Pittman, but if they couldn't get him to swing a cap friendly deal, he had to go. I still have a soft spot for AR, he's probably a bust, but dam, if he could turn it around, the Colts would be in QB heaven.