You know better than to extrapolate one game out for the entire season. The Colts have scored one fewer TD than their opponents in 6 games. They are more likely to regress toward the mean, particularly with a softer schedule. They'll win 6 games, which will put them around pick 8-12.

I look at it differently because so much of a team's record is dependent on opponent strength. I look at how many games I expect the Colts to win and how often that record ends up picking Top 5. I see the Colts winning 6 games, which definitely puts them outside the Top 5.

A lot of people are down about yesterday, but I expected 2-3 performances like that going into the season. That game didn't have any impact on my projection for the team.