The Evolution of Marlon Mack
 

So I saw Marlon Mack a couple times in college. I always thought he was a pretty good breakaway speed back for college. I didn't imagine he would be on the Colts radar though. Mack did a great job running the ball against the Cowboys. He was breaking that first tackle and getting gains. But I was most impressed with his inside running. So I decided to go back and look at what he was like in college and see if there has been some improvement from then to now.


College
Here is a highlight reel of Macks college runs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-tnpYNPKH0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LX5voGRRlT0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2wOZodibdc

Looks pretty good. Well, guys always look good in highlights. Mack has that quick twitch so guys don't hit him square and he can cause tacklers to slide off. Also, he has enough speed to pull away from the pack on those long runs.

But one thing I noticed when going back was that Mack was a bit of a bouncer. Meaning he would bounce his runs to the outside so he could use his speed. This is pretty common for those A+ athletes. They are either stronger or faster than everyone else, and for fast running backs bouncing it outside and outrunning everyone is usually the easiest path to success. You can't blame them for it because those are usually the runs they have the most success and they have probably been doing it since peewee ball.

The problem is, once you get to the pros, you can't outrun the defense to the sideline consistently. Defenders are as fast or even faster than you since the best athletes usually play defense. 6'2 230lb linebackers that can run a 4.5, you are not going to get around them and be able to cut upfield. This is usually one of the issues running backs have a problem with when transitioning to the pros. Especially if their game is built around speed and bouncing their runs to the outside.


Rookie Year
Now here are some rookie highlights for Mack. Remember highlights only show his best plays.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsiEZSm-TN0

You will see here that Mack is still bouncing his runs outside. Now, I read that Mack had a hurt shoulder so that would cause him to bounce outside even more to protect that shoulder. What the highlights don't show you is all the times Mack tried to bounce the run outside and failed. It was quite a bit.

Notice the runs against the 49'ers and as soon as the hole isn't there (thanks to some atrocious blocking by Jeremy Vujnovich) Mack immediately resorts to bouncing it outside. It's his panic button fall back. It is successful here obviously, but most of the time it was not. And once defenders see this and know what you are going to do. They use the sideline as almost another defender and can cut off your angles.


2018
Mack was hurt earlier in the year, but since coming back has had some good games for the Colts and a couple 'meh' ones as well.

vs Oakland
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rfP7_dMTkY

Mack starts to exhibit more patience and takes what the defense gives him. When he does get to the second level he turns it up a notch. Shows good situational awareness by making sure he goes for the first down and not the homerun. Follows his blockers well.

vs Buffalo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciUOqHAKHqM

This was a very good game for Mack, he weaves through the inside blocks on several runs very well. One thing I want to see him do more of, when he does get in a one on one situation with the safety I want to see him win that.

vs Cowboys
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JY6B7ioMam0

This is where I see Mack getting better. There are some patient runs here like at the 1:00 mark where Mack waits for the blocks to develop then springs for a first down. His inside running game is working well, squeezing between blocks, but now he is breaking that initial contact. 1:10 is a good example of this, so is 1:33. This is what elite backs do, they don't go down after that first contact. They are always getting positive yards, Edgerrin James was a master of this. His best run IMO is at 1:20 where he just blows past Jaylon Smith in a tight space who is unblocked.

For you Nelson fans, look at 1:02 where Nelson runs out to meet Vander Esch and pancakes him.


Patience
Laveon Bell is probably the poster child for patient running right now. Here is a breakdown of Bell's game if you want to see it explained. Oh and BTW, Kollman's channel is definitely worth subscribing to. One of the best football channel breakdowns on youtube and I think the guy has a tremendous knowledge for the game and is excellent at communicating it to the viewer. Big fan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rl2NRdJMoK4

Mack is starting to demonstrate more patience. He is certainly demonstrating a lot of trust because he is going full speed and the hole is there when he hits it. But one of the toughest things for a back to develop is patience. The NFL is a high-pressure game and there is a lot of incentive to go go go! So to get a guy to relax sit back and wait for a hole to develop and defenders to over commit, well that almost feels contrary to how you play the game. But if Mack can do this and learn to vary his speed as a consequence, I think he will move into the upper echelon of backs in the league.

Another criticism is that Mack tends to run all out all the time. That is why he gets caught by a lot of shoe string tackles because it is harder to stay balanced when running all out. He is starting to vary up his speed some though, and by doing that he can juke defenders easier but also absorb and shake off that initial contact. If he saves that extra gear for when he gets into the open field he will be stronger by the end of the game. Not all runs require you to run all out, knowing the difference and when to do it is key.


Conclusion
Mack is auditioning right now to be the lead back going forward. The run blocking of this unit is very good and with an elite back it would be a very dangerous compliment to Luck. I don't know if the Colts will look to sign Bell or Hunt in the offseason, but I do bet there are conversations about it. Another option would be to take a back in the upcoming draft. The draft won't be as deep at RB as it was the last two years. But there are a couple guys worth considering. Mack needs to show he can continue to grow his game and become a better back. If he can, he will be the lead back next year and maybe even get that second contract as a running back.

If they do go the draft route, some of the guys to look at are:

Damien Harris - a patient well rounded back who is underused this year IMO. One thing about Harris, notice how he curves his big runs back towards the center of the field. Good backs will go away from the sideline because they know they are more dangerous the more space they have, something Mack needs to work on. One negative, Bama backs always look good because of their excellent oline.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCMtbO-aMgw

Devin Singletary - a smaller jitterbug type back that makes everyone miss.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOBVfak4vk8

David Montgomery - I really like Montgomery, does his running style remind you of anyone? Reminds me of Edge, just maybe not as fast. Montgomery also has the opposite of the Bama line. They are just atrocious blockers so keep that in mind when watching him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnpJxA32HXE

EDIT
One more back you guys should watch is Josh Jacobs of Alabama. Kid is oozing potential and has been buried on Bama depth chart. The NC game is Monday. See if he pops up in it.

Mack looked very good against the Cowboys, but prior to that, I was not a believer. But I've been wrong before. I never felt that TY Hilton was an elite WR and was a bit surprised when the Colts ponied up all that money for him. Hines intrigues me, but he's certainly not a feature back. I go back a long way with the Colts, and I see Hines as having similarities to Lenny Moore. Valuable as a receiver and a RB. I'd love to be wrong about Mack, the Colts have other needs that should be addressed, so if Mack and Hines could be the answer; free agency and draft can be used to strengthen the D.

I see a lot of Darren McFadden in Mack's game. Great topline speed, decent vision and patience, but average to below average shiftiness and ability to run through contact. On that last point, Mack looked a lot better last week compared to previous games this year. If he can break more tackles at the 2nd level and reach his top gear, he'll be a really solid back for this offense.

With the stable of RBs the Colts have, I see a mid round pick as a prudent investment at RB, but that's it. Maybe a 3rd or 4th rounder. Is that the range these guys project in?

Also, at least for college guys, you can typically get full games rather than highlights by going to YouTube and typing in "(player name) vs."

We do have a bit of a log jam, and as a unit I think they can do pretty well.

The guys I mentioned are probably 30-90 range. Still a little early in the draft process and need to see how things shake out. One could slip into the first round if he tests well, but I doubt two.

Bryce Love could find himself in the third and he would be a dangerous weapon in this offense.

I'll believe it's an evolution when he plays like this past week consistently.

I think we could see Hines as a WR next year.

I think they will move him around a lot next year

I trade Mack for a backup long snapper

You and evolution don't really go together I hear.