Why does the focus need to be on defense?
 

Saw this stat in a Colts.com article.....followed by but yet another mock draft predicting we pick RB Cook in the first round.

And another one:

Other than a RB and/or possibly a starting quality O-Lineman, if Ballard brings in any starting free agents or uses any draft picks in the first 4 rounds of the draft on offensive specialty positions, I am going to make it my mission in life to find him and kick him in the jibbily nibbits until my leg gets tired.

#ThanksGrigson

Chees,

because our defense fucking sucks!

that is sherck's point. but sherck is a numbers geek so he backs it up with some substance.

Don't worry, Jacksonville will take Cook long before we do.

we won't spend a #1 on a rb. Colts can grab a Jamaal Williams in the 4th or later, meanwhile drafting 3 starters on defense in the first 3 rounds. I don't care who (we pay guys for that) but Colts need new defensive blood.

Saw one saying the Colts would take McCaffrey round 1. Rejoice!

From the Colts.com mailbag:
And, without looking it up, can you name the last defensive player drafted by the Colts that received a new contract from the Colts after their rookie one?

BTW, this does not count Vontae Davis since he was not drafted by the Colts.....




Anyone?






Anyone?






Anyone?






Anyone?








Anyone?











Antonie Bethea, drafted in the 6th round by the Colts in 2006 and re-signed to a veteran contract after 4 seasons in 2010. Let go at the end of that contract following the 2013 season. Only missed 5 games out of a possible 128 games in his 8 years in Indy; all within his rookie and 2nd season.

Defensive players selected by the Colts following Bethea 2007 - 2014:

2007:
CB Dante Hughes
DT Quinn Pitcock
SS Brannon Condren
LB Clint Session
FS Michael Coe
DT Keyunta Dawson
2008:
LB Phillip Wheeler
DE Marcus Howard
2009:
DT Fili Moala
CB Jerraud Powers
DT Terrence Taylor
2010:
DE Jerry Hughes
LB Pat Angerer
CB Kevin Thomas
DT Ricardo Matthews
ILB Kavell Conner
CB Ray Fisher
2011:
DT Drake Nevis
SS Chris Ruker
2012:
NT Josh Chapman
ILB Tim Fugger
2013:
OLB Bjoern Werner
DE Montori Hughes
SS John Boyett
2014:
OLB Jonathan Newsome
ILB Andrew Jackson

26 guys, none of which earned a 2nd contract from the Colts. Perhaps we missed on a few guys like Phillip Wheeler, Jerraud Powers and Jerry Hughes but, overall, there was very little NFL talent there.

2015 picks of Henry Anderson, Clayton Geathers and David Parry are the next set of folks that might break this trend in actually having a Colts rookie draftee defender signed to a veteran NFL contract. We will see in 2019.

Cheers,

Flagged.

The Pats will draft him. 90% probability.

Fixed it for you Colt Classic. If this is Ballard's 1st pick, then Irsay hired the wrong GM.

I guessed Bethea. He and Hayden are the last two that received second contracts here on defense. Most of that is due to the ineptitude of Chris Polian and Ryan Grigson. Hopefully Ballard reverses that trend.

fify

Meh, I think the downhill slide in draft quality started when Bill started trying to hand it over to Chris, which IIRC was right after the Super Bowl win. If you look at it, that seems to be the demarcation point. 1998-2006 drafts were all above average or better in terms of producing talent for the team. 2007-2011 drafts were average at best, worse in most cases.

The buck still stopped with BP. His son, his judgement, his fault.

I thought Angerer got a small 2nd contract here so I guessed wrong. That's a very long time to go without drafting a worthy defensive player.

Yet lots of colts fans still want offense

Then they must not watch a lot of Colts football recently!

Defense, Defense, Defense! The Colts need to quit fucking around and build up the D. If the Colts draft McCaffrey, like one mock draft has us doing, I will explode into a million fucking pieces. I think Griggs may have done that, but I believe, or hope, that Ballard is too smart for that.

I would love to have Melvin Ingram, but he is going to cost a boatload of money.

Yep, it boggles the mind.

Aright, despite your occasional bluster, you know more about football than me. I'm having a hard time getting my head around this....

In September of 2009, we beat the Dolphins, despite only possessing the ball for 14 minutes. That was because we had a good offensive line and a great QB.

Depending on who you ask, we have a top five QB and a bottom half offensive line.

I don't see anyone presenting a convincing argument that the future of the Colts franchise is on defense. We should have fixed the OL 3 years ago, two years ago... and we didn't.

I would draft an OG in the 1st. To me it's a no brainer. So when you guys say that in a condescending way (that means talk down to), that many colts fans still want offense, are you saying that the 16th ranked offensive line (being kind) is what we want for Andrew Luck?

see also: Ezekiel Elliot, Dak Prescott

offensive guards, good ones, can be found all over the nfl draft. my typical opinion is that i never get mad at drafting oline. this year is different.

we have neglected the defense for way too long. we will not win with offense alone. we never did. never once with manning did we win anything with a shit defense. in 06 our defense and running game is what made the super bowl happen

and to win this little argument. i leave you with this. our oline was bad in 09. you can point to 1 game where we had the ball for 14 minutes and still won. how many times since 2000 have we scored over 30 and lost?

Seriously, that list of defensive picks since Bethea is just woeful. That is a long list of failure, and it's no wonder the defense is so bad. It has to get better and that has to start with investing in good draft picks.

That game was simply Manning being the GOAT. Nothing more, nothing less.

The 2010 draft class actually had promise, but injuries derailed the careers of Angerer, Moala and Thomas. Hughes proved to be a late bloomer and Conner wasn't a bad pick.

Not sure a high draft pick should be used on o-line this year, not with what we saw over the last handful of games from the young players they were starting. Great o-lines don't just happen overnight, a little continuity from one year to the next helps. Either I'm blind or the o-line did actually have some significant improvement over the last quarter of the season.

From my RB "State of the Colts" post:
And from the QB "State of the Colts" post:
So, no, two of the more important measures of performance as to whether an O-Line is performing well or not were both up in the later part of the year. Your eyes were not deceiving you.

Cheers,

Sacks were down but he was still getting drilled too much. But overall I think we have talent and need to give the oline kids a chance to develop

Too long, won't read:

Since the start of the Peyton years in Indy (1998):

Colts scored more than 30 points in 106 of 329 games (32.2% of them). Of those 106 games, they won 96 of them (90.6% of them).

Colts allowed less than 19 points in 122 of 329 games (37.1% of them). Of those 122 games, they won 116 of them (95.1% of them).

Even for a team like the Colts that is NOT known for building a winning defense over the years, holding opposing teams to less than 19 points is more effective in winning games than scoring 30 or more points.
================
These numbers include post-season games. I also went back to 1998 to cover all of Peyton's years.

1998: 03 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 01 - 2
1999: 06 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 05 - 1
2000: 07 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 06 - 1
2001: 06 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 05 - 1
2002: 01 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 01 - 0
2003: 09 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 08 - 1
2004: 11 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 10 - 1
2005: 07 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 07 - 0
2006: 07 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 07 - 0
2007: 08 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 08 - 0
2008: 06 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 06 - 0
2009: 08 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 08 - 0
2010: 06 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 05 - 1
2011: 00 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 00 - 0
2012: 02 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 02 - 0
2013: 06 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 06 - 0
2014: 06 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 05 - 1
2015: 02 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 02 - 0
2016: 05 games of scoring over 30 points; record = 04 - 1

Since Peyton was drafted, the Colts have scored 30 or more points in 106 of 329 games (19 seasons of 16 games each plus 25 post-season games) for a percentage of scoring 30 or more points in 32.2% of our games

Of those 106 games, the Colts won 96 of them for a win percentage of 90.6%.

So, sure, we win most of the games when we put up more than 4 TDs in a game. I would love to know how that percentage stacks up to the NFL as a whole. How many teams put up more 30 or more points in more than 1/3 of their games?

However, the flip side needs to be exampled as well. The question? "How many times since 1998 have the Colts allowed less than 19 points in a game and won?"

1998: 01 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 01 - 0
1999: 07 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 07 - 0
2000: 08 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 07 - 1
2001: 02 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 02 - 0
2002: 08 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 07 - 1
2003: 08 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 08 - 0
2004: 08 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 08 - 0
2005: 10 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 10 - 0
2006: 07 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 07 - 0
2007: 09 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 08 - 1
2008: 06 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 06 - 0
2009: 12 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 12 - 0
2010: 06 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 05 - 1
2011: 01 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 00 - 1
2012: 06 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 06 - 0
2013: 07 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 07 - 0
2014: 09 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 09 - 0
2015: 04 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 03 - 1
2016: 03 games of allowing under 19 points; record = 03 - 0

Since Peyton was drafted, the Colts have allowed less than 19 points to be scored against them in 122 of 329 games (19 seasons of 16 games each plus 25 post-season games) for a percentage of allowing 19 or less points in 37.1% of our games

Of those 122 games, the Colts won 116 of them for a win percentage of 95.1%.
There you have it. Holding opposing teams to less than 19 points is more effective in winning games than having your own team score 30 or more points.

AND, these win numbers are for a team that was no know for building a game winning defense.

That is why we need to work a whole lot more on our defense.

Cheers,

Nice work shrek

Goddamnit, Donald! Guessed Kelvin Hayden and missed by one year.

At this stage, you have to play the kids and see if they have it. By all accounts the olinemen suck in this draft anyway, so defensive need should align with BPA.

I've always heard that OG is the easiest position on the OL to fill late in draft or FA, wouldn't make a whole lot of sense to draft one in the 1st, with our highest pick since Luck

We need a run mauler if we do go guard.

I would like to see us go after Larry Warford in free agency

I think so too, plus they could very much be helped out by a smarter offensive scheme that doesn't involve shotgun snaps followed by 3-4 step drops.

My only point about selecting an O-Lineman anywhere early would be my most likely scenario where someone that the Colts graded as a low 1st round OT was available with their 2nd round pick and they felt like the kid was a plug and play starter at RT.

Or, the Colts trade down to lower in the first round, pick up extra 2nd/3rd/4th round picks and then select one of those OTs whom they think is an immediate starter.

We don't need more guys on the O-Line. Between Reitz, Good, Haeg and Clark, we have a lot of guys that might end up being anywhere from NFL average to NFL good. We need (perhaps) better guys who come into the top of the depth chart, are day one starters (like Ryan Kelly) and can turn into NFL great in a year or two.

Cheers,

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oal9T61thY0

Great Breakdown of Dalvin Cook. Brett Kollmann knows his football.

I still would like to go defense with our first pick, but im listening...

Cook is a little light in the pants, but man is he dynamic.

Stop it. You know better.

If the new GM goes rb in round 1 he's no better than old GM.....unless he gets 3 starters on defense in FA......THEN he can do whatever he wants

So I don't follow college ball at all, so I don't know anything about these RBs except that they are considered the top 2 prospects at that position. So the Cook video is interesting but damn, I watched his breakdown on Fournette. Holy shit that guy is a beast. I say we go defense still but if we ended up in a position to take him (I know we won't) I wouldn't be mad at all.

By all accounts, Ballard is a smart guy and was highly sought after as a GM candidate. Then he decided to keep Chucky Clapsalot and I started to wonder. However, I still think he did that because all the good candidates were already gone and he knows he'll get a mulligan for next year anyway.

I still have total confidence that he knows what he's doing. That's why I don't expect a skill position O player at all in the first 4-5 rounds. He needs defense, defense, defense, and more defense.

Cutting the rotting carcass of DQ was a good start.

I believe Irsay made the decision to keep Pags, at least for one more year. I don't think Ballard had a choice, at least not this year. In Irsay's press conference when he announced the firing of Griggs, he stated that Pags would be the coach for 2017.

Yep.

We could sign 2 or 3 defensive starters which could allow us to draft a RB in the first.

Tak vs Dalvin Cook. I'd take Cook assuming Barnett is off the board.