Official 2018 NFL Draft Discussion Thread
 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...uck/529383002/

There's a draft preview, why are we still using the 2017 thread?

John Franklin-Myers is a small school sleeper I hope the Colts pick up on Day 3. Looks like he could be a good fit at DE/UT in this scheme.

Some people don’t read the title of the thread. Start a new one for 2018

I did. You just posted in it.

I’ve had a few beers my posts my be over the top for a while


I still hate Pagano. FWIW

John Dorsey says that "hand size" is important in his evaluation of a QB for Cleveland. Another potential sign indicating Allen may be his guy.

I'm trying to figure out what Dorsey is trying to gain right now by not stating who the pick is. Is he trying to get the Giants to tip their hand about pick #2?

Ballard's presser. A few interesting nuggets:

1) They considered how many premium players there were before trading back to 6. Said they assumed two QBs off the board and there were at least 4 premium players they would be happy with at 6.
2) Says they identified a few more premium players after the trade. Says there are 8 outside of the QBs.
3) Thinks the EDGE depth is good in this draft in rounds 2-4.
4) Says John Simon will be a DE in this defense (RE).
5) They got some calls about Brissett, but Ballard values the depth he provides.
6) Says Colts are open to trading up into the bottom of Rd 1.

Two big indications to me they don’t have a huge interest in Chubb, even at 6. Edmunds or Smith seem much more likely if they stay at 6.

Agree on the last, but don't agree that they aren't interested in Chubb. I think Ballard is assuming Chubb is gone.

Yep, agreed. Or he's creating advance cover in the event that Chubb isn't available at 6 - he can tell everyone he didn't need or want Chubb anyways. I feel like these last few weeks before the draft are such a mind game.

The other thing I read into his comments is that he'd like to trade down with Buffalo. Isn't it curious that they recently bumped up the number of the non-QB "premium" players to 8? When you add that to the 4 QBs widely thought to be picked in the first 10 picks, that means that the Colts could safely trade down as low as pick 12, which, conveniently enough, is Buffalo's first pick.

Agree completely. I had the exact same thought.

yep, ballard is playing the game

Miami also falls in that range.

Ballard --> MIA: "I'm going to need 1.11, 2.11, and next year's 2nd to top Buffalo's offer."

Ballard --> BUF: "I'm going to need 1.12, 1.22, and #53 to top Miami's offer."

Can’t say I really like the idea of trading up into the bottom of the first round. Always dependent on who it’s for and what you give up I guess. But if it was a poster here suggesting it I’d certainly be against. Especially since the talent supposedly flattens out after the middle of the first round.

Really depends. I brought this up in another thread, but if there's a guy falling into the 20's that you really like (e.g. LVE or McGlinchey), then it's worth exploring.

The other benefit of a 1st rounder is the potential 5th year of team control. That's a big reason why I think Jackson and Rudolph will get picked late in Round 1--that 5th year of control on a developmental QB is huge.

All of this sounds to me like Ballard wants to get front 7 help with his early picks. I think Edmunds is his top choice after Chubb, then Smith. I also think he's interested in Taven Bryan, LVE, Rashaan Evans, and Rasheem Green based on that last comment.

None of his comments indicate a lack of interest in Chubb. You don't not take the best defender in the draft because you like the depth at their position.

We have so many holes to fill, I really don't see how Ballard can screw it up with all the picks we have. Probably won't fill them all, but I'm expecting a solid draft.

Couldn't ask for much more from Day 1 of the draft than this:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/...aker-mayfield/

I could live with that scenario.

I wouldn't be happy drafting our top 2 picks based purely on projection and not on production.

Mayfield is going 3 unless Darnold is still on the board. Also, I would be a little surprised that CLE and DEN didn’t accept the Bills offer.

I don't care which QB is there, I care that someone wants to move up for them, the Colts get great value, and ending up with Edmunds and Davenport on Day 1 would be a huge win, certainly more than I'd expect.

Fair. I just believe that the chance of a trade down is smaller than some seem to expect.

Somebody is going to trade up, either with us or with one ahead of us.

Well, maybe

Is Davenport going to be a great player? Seems like kind of a project.

I don't know if I think the chance of trading down is smaller, but I suspect the return to the Colts for doing so might be somewhat smaller than what some are hoping for. IMO the Bills GM would be nuts to give up BOTH #12 and #22 just to get to #6 and (maybe) get the 4th-best QB in the draft. If anything, I'd think it might take the possibility of moving to #5, #4 or even #2 to get the Bills interested in that kind of scenario.

But that's not to say a trade down with the Bills would be impossible, or even unworthy of consideration, especially since they also have two 2nd rounders. Maybe Ballard offers #6 for #12, #53, and #56, Bills counter with an offer of #12, #56 and #65, and the two sides agree on #12, #53 and #65. Bills still get a shot at their (supposed) QB of the future, Colts end up with 7 of the first 67 picks.

With #12, Edmunds or Smith might still be there (and more justifiable IMO than up at #6) and, if not, likely another defensive player like Fitzpatrick, Ward or James would still be there.

I’m expecting the latter. 4 QBs will go in the Top 5.

I think it depends on which QB Cleveland takes. My instinct is that the Giants only want Darnold. If he's taken, then they will look to trade down if possible. If a deal is not worked out, I see them taking Barkley.

As for the Colts, it has to be Chubb or trade down.

I think either Cleveland or Denver trades down with Buffalo instead of us getting to do so.

I think the Colts stay put and take Roquan Smith a bit earlier than people think if Chubb is gone.

Barkley and Chubb will be gone before we pick at 6. Nelson will be available and no one is going to want to trade up. We will pick at 6 or take a lot less than most think on here. If we pick at 6 and Nelson is there..... He would be the BPA

True, though Harold Landry also appears like he’s probably not going to be an immediate contributor either.

Bradley Chubb might be the only instant impact pass rush player in the draft.

Depends on what is meant by "a lot less" IMO. Certainly I don't think (as I said above) the Colts could expect to get both of Buffalo's 1st round picks, but something like the trade I mentioned might be realistic and would be approximately "equal value" on the trade charts. And the 12th pick would still have lots of value for the Colts in this draft, especially on defense.

I think the key to this draft for them is the 2nd (and to a lesser extent 3rd) round, more than the 1st. So moving from #6 to #12 in order to get 2 more picks between #49 and #67 would be potentially attractive to me.

If Ballard keeps the pick, I don't have a major problem with that either. If he uses it to draft Nelson, so be it. Personally I'd be VERY reluctant to use the 6th overall pick, in any draft, on any offensive lineman other than a very promising left tackle, and I don't agree with those who think the addition of Nelson would dramatically improve the Colts' OL--too many other issues there IMO. But I wouldn't get bent out of shape if that does turn out to be Ballard's choice.

Same for Smith. Personally I think he'd be something of a reach at #6, given that I feel he can realistically only play one position (W) in the pros, but if he stays healthy he should be able to play that position at a very high level, especially compared to Indy's current LB corps.

And, again, in some ways I'm actually more interested in seeing who might fall to the Colts at #36, #37, #49 and #67 than in seeing what their choice is at #6. Some really talented OLs, CBs and RBs should still be there when Ballard picks in Round Two--maybe Round 3 as well.

Possibly a LB (Malik Jefferson?) will fall farther than he should on Draft Day as well. I wouldn't mind seeing what an LB combo of Smith and Jefferson might look like 2-3 years down the road.

Or an OL combo of Nelson and, maybe, O'Neill in Round Two. Possibly with some RB like Michel or R. Jones drafted in between them?

And maybe the Colts could get lucky and see a promising CB (Carlton Davis?) slide to Round 3. Stranger things have happened....especially with teams like Cleveland drafting.

I've heard a lot of talk from Ballard about Brian Urlacher and Derrick Johnson. I think Edmunds or Smith is the pick if they don't trade down and Chubb isn't available at 6.

The analogy of Urlacher and Edmunds makes some sense, especially in terms of size and raw talent. Not as much with Smith, but I could realistically see Ballard choosing either one (or Nelson) at #6, especially if Eberflus thinks Edmunds could play either inside or outside.

Maybe the Colts do trade down on Draft Day BUT not in the 1st Round. What if someone like Mason Rudolph's there at #36 or #37 and someone like Miami or Arizona misses out on a QB in Round One? And they offer their 2nd rounder and.....?

Don't be surprised if the Bears come calling, they are supposedly in love with Nelson. I'd take #8 and #39 to move down 2 spots.

The way that Ballard was bigging up Sheard, Simon and Basham in is his press conference, makes me feel that Chubb won't be the selection even if he is on the board with the 6th pick. If all 3 of those guys are going to be DE's, then although you might argue with justification that they are not proven, they have their guys there already. But the LB cupboard is almost completely bare.

We have 4 picks in the first 48 selections, so that does give some flexibility in this draft as to what positions we target and in which rounds. To me the best player in this draft is Nelson, he is better than all of the QB's, Chubb and Barkley, it's just that the guard position is not considered to be hugely important. If he is available i would take him, but there are other guard options that will likely be available in the 2nd rounds that i also like and it could screw up the rest of the draft because if we want interior LB's Edmunds and Smith are the options early, but there is a bigger drop off in talent level when it comes to the 2nd round. Vander Esch might make it, but i suspect he is a guy who is going to be picked in the later part of the 1st round so you are left with no LB's that are value picks early in the 2nd round.

My ideal draft would be G Quenton Nelson, ILB Kyle Vander Esch, CB Carlton Davis, ILB Malik Jefferson in the first 2 rounds.

But i don't think that it is very realistic that Vander Esch drops to the 2nd, so would probably draft Edmunds, 1 of the guards (Wynn, Price or Hernandez), CB Davis and ILB Jefferson.

Logged on to share the same thought as JC. If Chubb is there (and I think there's a reasonable chance), Ballard takes him. If not, I think he ends up staying put and taking Smith.

This is an ideal scenario, but I don't think it will happen. The Bears wouldn't have another pick until the 4th round in this scenario.

I think this is a very reasonable scenario, though I think Smith is Ballard's guy over Edmunds.

Not sure many would agree with me, but I believe Roquan Smith would make a bigger impact on this team than Nelson.