Draft Targets at #26 and #34
 

The draft is still a few weeks out, but I think we have enough information to start culling the list of potential targets for the Colts at #26 and #34.

1) There are several players very likely to be selected in the top 25. Based on Ballard's comments, it's doubtful he will trade up to get one of these 16 guys before they're off the board:

• QB: Kyler Murray
• QB: Dwayne Haskins
• QB: Drew Lock
• WR: DK Metcalf
• TE: TJ Hockenson
• OL: Jonah Williams
• OL: Jawaan Taylor
• OL: Andre Dillard
• EDGE: Nick Bosa
• EDGE: Josh Allen
• EDGE: Rashaun Gary
• EDGE: Montez Sweat
• DL: Quinnen Williams
• DL: Ed Oliver
• LB: Devin White
• LB: Devin Bush

2) There are also some highly rated players that either aren't a scheme/character fit or at positions that are very unlikely to be targeted early by the Colts:

Scheme/Character:

• DL: Jerry Tillery (5 technique)
• DL: Dexter Lawrence (2 gap player)
• EDGE: Jachai Polite (character knocks)
• CB: Greedy Williams (better suited for man scheme)
• CB/S: Rock Ya-Sin (likely a slot cover corner)
• CB/S: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (likely a slot cover corner)

Positional Value:

• TE: Noah Fant
• TE: Irv Smith
• RB: Josh Jacobs
• OL: Garrett Bradbury
• OL: Cody Ford
• QB: Daniel Jones
• OL: Erik McCoy
• OL: Dalton Risner
• RB: David Montgomery
• LB: Mack Wilson
• S: Nasir Adderley (strictly a FS)
• S: Deionte Thompson (strictly a FS)

That significantly narrows the list of potential targets at #26 and #34:

Potential Targets:

• DT: Jeffrey Simmons
• DT: Christian Wilkins
• DT: Dre'mont Jones
• EDGE: Brian Burns
• EDGE: Clelin Ferrell
• EDGE: Jaylon Ferguson
• S: Jonathan Abram
• S: Taylor Rapp
• CB: Byron Murphy
• CB: Deandre Baker
• WR: AJ Brown
• WR: Marquise Brown
• WR: N'Keal Harry
• WR: Riley Ridley
• WR: Deebo Samuel
• WR: Terry McLaurin
• WR: Paris Campbell

Obviously some of these guys will be off the board, so the list becomes even shorter when the Colts are on the clock at #26 and #34. I list the defenders first because I'm fairly confident that's the direction they will take. The list of WRs is a bit long because I'm not 100% sure what the Colts would value more. Do they want a slot guy? A speed threat to stretch the field?

What do you guys think? Any names you think should be moved around? Any names you would add?

I don't know how you pass on Byron Murphy if he's still on the board?

It sure why you are listing the OL players as non positional. We need a future LT

1) Ballard will use the insane cap space to re-sign Castonzo.
2) The value isn't there at #26 or #34. Ford and Dillard will probably be off the board, and a lot of scouts don't like them at LT anyway. I wouldn't be surprised to see a developmental tackle taken at #59 or later, but not that early with the type of talent that will be available.

How the corners come off the board is a big question mark, IMO. If a few corners go before 26, it makes it more likely a guy like Burns, Wilkins, or Simmons are still available.

Stop making sense, they need a backup LT to get the colts to the super bowl

So, are you 100% convinced that that Braden Smith is the RT of the future? I'm not.

I'm also not 100% convinced that Glowinski can maintain his success either. If not, maybe Smith gets moved back inside to RG...in that case we need a RT to replace him.

We are also pinning a lot on LeRaven Clark at LT if Castonzo should go down. Yet alone the fact that we can't guarantee that Castonzo will be a Colt after 2019.

Don't get me wrong. This is probably the best O-Line that we have had since at least 2009. But one more piece needs to be added to insure that it stays that way.

2009? No. You’re either misremembering or crazy. This OL right now is the best OL we’ve had in decades. In 2009 we had Charlie Johnson playing above his head at LT while Ugoh sulked on the bench, Mike fucking Pollak at RG, Saturday as a shell of who he used to be at C, and the lumbering corpse of Ryan Diem at RT before they kicked him inside (where he still wasn’t very good).

He’s slow, under 6’, and we have 3 starting-caliber corners already on the roster. Ballard will pass on him easily.

This.

I have a sneaking suspicion that if Ford is on the board, he'll be the pick. He likely won't be, but if he is...well, I'd love the choice.

But I know nothing about this sort of stuff.

If you remove the WRs it's a pretty good list. I also think Tillery can play 3 tech and has ideal size and length for what Eberflus wants in a DL.

There were times last year when this was the best offensive line play I can remember. Certainly the most violent. Having said that the only position that would shock me as a first round pick is qb. I think Ballard goes for the best player that fits his scheme regardless of position. Position does not matter that much unless you grade them close. We need more playmakers. Doesn't matter where (though I am hoping for defense)

Let me put it this way: there’s zero chance I pass on Wilkins or Simmons in favor of Ford. Would you?

I’m not saying we absolutely will take an OT but if that is BPA then I’m pretty sure it will/could happen

No, look at the quote. It was sarcasm. The Colts need a pass rush that produces more pressure if they want to get back to the playoffs.

Eventually yes.

This year? No

I don't think anyone would argue against OL depth and upgrades.

But we are talking about picks #26 and #34 and there are certainly much greater needs on this team. I can't see using picks that high on OL depth when pass rush, corner, #2 WR are still huge areas of need.

We won't use a first rounder to pick a guy who will be a backup for a year. Plus Clark is there even if Castonzo is not re-signed.

You are correct...the 2007 OL was pretty good though. I agree that this OL looks to be our best ever. But it will take sustained success to prove that out...especially with a new OL coach coming in.

^^This, but I would just add that it isn't like they'll be "reaching" for one of those areas of need. I just provided a long list of guys projected at 25-50 at areas of need, so it's not like they'd be reaching for a 3rd round talent to fill a hole.

Holder had a chat on the Athletic yesterday and said Joe Mixon wasn’t on the team’s board in 2017. I don’t think the reports on Simmons or Ferguson are anywhere near as bad, but it’s something to keep in mind.

Ballard won’t be drafting for need 1st It will be BPA

I see a difference between those situations. I wonder if the front office does too. I’m glad Mixon wasn’t on there.

I disagree on your Tillery assessment. I think he can play inside in this D and was very successful pass rushing last year. I also don’t think a WR will be in those top two picks. Too many to choose from and not a lot at the top.

I’ve heard NFL GMs see about 14 legitimate first round picks this year. I think if one of them drops we will grab one regardless of position, unless it’s QB. That includes oline and any of the TE’s.

Maybe it's just what he was asked to do, but I only see two plays here where he truly shot a gap like Eberflus wants his DTs to do.

Compare that to Dre'mont Jones here, where he's shooting the B gap almost every play. In particular, watch the play at 0:40. Tillery doesn't have the quickness to pull that off, which is a key part of what Eberflus wants on the interior.

In his podcast today, Holder mentioned that he heard the same from Ballard. But that there's a lot of good players available after that through the end of Rd2.

I think Ballard will prefer to get 3 of those "good" players at 26, 34, and 59, but I do wonder if there's one of those elite guys that he would try to move up and take. You'd still end up with 1 "elite" player and 1 "good" player, but I think Ballard's preference is to minimize the risk and have as many quality picks as he can get.

Agree. But not any of the the tight ends only the top two. And I certainly hope we don’t have to go that way

Who are you hoping to get at 26 and 34?

Have you watched Tillery's Stanford tape? It's likely his best game, but he dominated Stanford's OL for most of that game. I counted 4 sacks, plenty of gap penetration, near constant double teams, and an occasional triple team. If his other film looks similar at all to that game, I'd be fine with drafting him at 26.

I like Dre’mont, if we love Lewis, they have to be looking at Dre’mont as well. I would be more than happy with him. I like a guy with advanced technique like he does.

I think Tillery can do it. You have to examine what he was asked to do when considering. For example Ed Oliver was asked to 0-tech almost half of his snap, maybe more. But when he was asked to 3-tech he was pretty effective. Up there with the other tackles. Tillery just wasn’t always asked to do it. But yeah the Stanford game as Dam said is s good game to look at.

I like Irv Smith, I think he was under utilized at Bama. He can really move and if you have a QB who can get him the ball I think he could do some real yac damage on a team.

Yes, I have. He's basically Corey Redding. He would beat interior guys with power and a good swim move, but he isn't a guy who consistently beats a double-team by shooting the gap before the OL can get their hands on him.

What's a matter with you, this is a fan posting site, you are making way too much sense.

A hot blonde and a tall red head.

Oh, you mean the draft?

I haven't the slightest idea. What I do know is that the Colts couldn't get to the QB on a regular basis, so that would be a good place to start. DT, DE, hell even a LB and you blitz him, but they need to either cover better or go get the QB.

Here's an ideal, TRADE UP. Get the DL guy you want.

I have, that's why I can't believe that he's being pigeon holed as a 5-tech. To me his tap shows that he could play any spot on the DL in a 3-4 and can play NT or UT in our 4-3.

I like Jones as well, but feel that he may be redundant with Lewis and Autry.

After watching more tape of each, I have Tillery slightly ahead of Jones for one reason: consistency. I'll give you that Jones's athleticism is off the charts, especially his first step/explosiveness, but it also gets him in trouble at times. I watched Jones get washed out of plays trying to knife a gap so many times. TCU ran right at his gap twice for long TDs because he was trying to make the big play rather than keeping gap contain. Tillery, meanwhile, still creates good gap penetration while also making the routine plays and not getting washed out often. As for your Cory Redding comparison, getting a player that productive at 26 would be a win.

I agree with this assessment other than I don't think he could 2 gap in a 3-4 as a NT. Other than that, yes, I love the versatility and consistency he'd bring to the interior DL.

He is. He'd be a UT/DE, just like the other two. The Colts need someone who can play UT and NT more.

No, I probably wouldn't play him there every down, but on passing downs he could play there.

I’m not sure enough for it to warrant such a high pick. I’d much rather take one of those other players I listed at DL/EDGE/CB/SS.

Well if Brian Burns is there, obviously take him, a legitimate pass rusher is the most important thing to have outside of a QB. Almost every source suggests he won't be, however, and Tillery might be the best available at 26. I'd take Tillery over Christian Wilkins, and I don't think the value is there at CB or SS. I haven't really watched any of Quinnen Williams or Josh Allen yet, but Tillery vs. Stanford is the best performance I've seen by a DL prospect since Chubb vs. FSU. To me, the tape and the measurables both show a great fit for the Colts defense, so I'd take him unless one of the guys like Sweat or Oliver falls to 26.