Projected draft picks....
 

If the draft was tomorrow, here’s how it would look for the Colts:

Round 1, No. 26
Round 2, No. 34 (from the Jets)
Round 2, No. 59
Round 3, No. 90
Round 4, No. 123
Round 4, No. 129-137 (projected compensatory pick)
Round 5, No. 154
Round 6, No. 187
Round 7, No. 218

The Colts are 3.125% of the league (1 of 32 teams).

They own 4.545% of the top 154 selections (7 of 154 picks) or about 150% more "quality" picks than they should be alloted.

IF some NFL team decides to roll the dice on Jacoby Brissett and offer a high enough pick for Ballard to decide that he can go find a new security blanket, this gets even better.

If Ballard and staff can even do half as well in the 2019 draft as they did in the 2018 draft.... However, I expect him to do nearly as well this year as last because:

Ballard's first draft was with Grigson's scouting staff.

Last season's draft was with HIS scouting staff.

I expect more of last year's results going forward.

The future is so bright, I gotta triple up! :cool::cool::cool:

And here's hoping Brissett can still be turned into a draft pick, too. I know what Ballard said yesterday, but this team would be foolish not to take a 2 if anyone comes calling. Though that may be at next trade deadline versus this draft, I realize, when teams are more desperate after injuries etc.

Not sure what the trade value for Brissett is this offseason. There could be come quality back ups/starters available :

Foles
Possible Eli Manning
Joe Flacco
Andy Dalton maybe?

I mean those aren't great options for various reasons, but on the level of Brissett or better I would say

I am not so sure about trading Brissett. We would then have another need and would likely have to use draft capital to get anyone of a tangible level. We have gone through what feels like a million backup QB's over the past 5 years, all of whom besides Hasselbeck have proven to be pretty much useless.

I know next to nothing about the QB's in this upcoming draft class at the moment. And have no idea whether or not there is a likelihood that there is a diamond in the rough that we could potentially draft in the middle rounds. I do know that i have no confidence that Philip Walker is the answer.

So gaining a middling 2nd rounder for a QB who has shown starting ability and then having to use a 3rd or 4th rounder to obtain an unproven rookie, doesn't sound all that appealing to me.

I'd take a 2nd rounder for Brissett in a second. He's a good backup but he's not better than Garopolo (who went for a 2nd rounder). Darius Leonard and Braden Smith were 2nd round picks.

I would take a 2nd for Brissett in a heartbeat.

This team desperately needs playmakers. At wr and everywhere on defense

Put simply: they would be crazy to balk at a 2 for Brissett.

Brissett cost the Colts a 7th round pick. You can absolutely find developmental QB2s if you want to develop behind Luck (or any franchise QB).

You don't hang on to Brissett because he's a good QB2 at a certain offer point. He's not a good QB1, as he showed, so if you have to play him, you're sunk anyway.

EDIT: Derp, obviously he was swapped for Dorsett, not a 7th. Not sure what trade I was thinking of. Still: buy low, sell high.

I'm not sure about trading Brissett either.

While I agree with GBB88 that if someone offers us a 2nd round for him we should jump at it, I just don't see a team that is willing to do that. 3rd at best, but more likely a 4th.

He's more valuable here than a 3rd.

I agree gimme a 2nd rounder for Brissett. If Luck goes down (I really hope not). Brissett isnt taking this team anywhere. We need to add as many weapons as possible while we have a healthy Luck!

In all fairness he had like a half a second before the rush was on him last year. Might be a bit better with this line? Just an observation … :cool:

This is a 6-10 team at best if Brissett was QB this year. We would get more value from a draft pick.

I actually had that thought at one point during the season when Luck took one of the few sacks allowed on him this year.

We don't really know how Brissett would fare behind this line. If he actually had all day to throw like we just enjoyed for 10+ games, and a viable running attack, I expect he would probably look considerably better.

That said, there are viable trade scenarios. Considering we gave up a 7th for him, he played one year that went nowhere, and (following this hypothetical) his perceived value appreciated up to a 2nd round pick, you work your margins there.

By that I mean - he's never going to be a franchise QB for us, and he'd never be worth more than a 2nd offered this offseason or next, so you turn that equity into liquid and don't look back.

Brissett was acquired via a player-for-player swap. The Colts traded former 1st round pick Phillip Dorsett for the former 3rd round draft pick Brissett.

God that's right. And I knew that.

This is where it's gotten to - GBB can say something I know is wrong and I just accept it wholesale.

I might need to examine that.

Yup my bad. Idk what trade I was thinking of.

Still, Colts bought low and could sell high.

I don't think that's what happened at all. I think Brissett held the ball way too long in a bad offense and had trouble seeing the field.

Just think he's way overrated as a player in general. As a teammate? Awesome. As a big arm? Fine. But as a player, he struggles to read defenses. And, hell, he was asked to complete 1 pass this year (to Andrew Luck in the MIA game ... I'm discounting the Hail Mary because it was a Hail Mary) and almost screwed that up royally.

I think nearly everyone would take a 2nd for Brissett, but what if a team is only looking to move down (i.e. the Colts wouldn't gain a pick). As an example, what about Brissett + #89 to Miami for #48? That would be roughly a late 2nd rounder in value for Brissett.

Depends what your draft board looks like and where you see deep drop offs in talent. But I’d say the answer is very likely yes.

I love having the security of believing Brissett could win a game or two in Luck’s absence. But the reality is you can find backups on the market that provide an equivalent level of short term security. Brissett’s real value is in his age and upside, which really mean very little for the Colts long term. And in some ways is actually a detriment, as you’d prefer an experienced hand and one that isn’t going to (rightly) leave for his (deserved) shot. It sucks, but the best thing for the Colts (and possibly Brissett) is a trade this offseason.

Brissett is a serviceable back up that can come in for 2-3 games in a pinch and win 1-2.

I don't think he is any better or worse than most back ups in the league.

I do think with Reich he could make him a decent QB, play to his strengths Also with a better run game as we saw this year for the team, it would be easier on him

But I would take a second round pick for him if offered, just not sure you would get that. You can draft or find a back up somewhere to replace him with a lower round pick or in FA

I think your perception is pretty off. Brissett isn't irreplaceable, but he's definitely on a higher level than Nathan Peterman, for example. There are some bad backup QBs that can't handle much real NFL playing time. With a good team and coaching staff around him I think Brissett can win.

I’d agree - but that’s why he’s more valuable as a trade commodity than as a backup QB. I don’t see the Colts being able to retain him long term. I’d guess he will want a shot as a full time starter and I think he’s shown enough to get one.

Matt Miller posted a new mock today. I think the note at the end is particularly interesting as we think about the best combined approach between UFA and the draft.

Harry has the type of size that I think Ballard wants (over a guy like Marquise Brown). Definitely someone to keep an eye on and see how he runs at the combine.

He's right, there are many pass rushers in their contract year. But realistically how many will get to FA?

I think we need to plan to address the pass rush through the draft, be conservative with FA's, but also not afraid to jump at someone IF the come available.

Ballard talked about bolstering the lines quite a bit in his post presser. I have a hard time seeing him drafting a receiver 1st. Especially with all the line talent in this draft. I’ve seen quite a few mocks with a WR first. Just don’t see it happening.

I’ve seen Harry play a couple times. Makes great catches, but I worry about his ability to separate. I want to see his 40 and 3-come Times first. I seeso many of his catches contested and the pac-12 doesn’t have that great of corners.

I guess I just cant imagine someone paying a second for:

a 25 year old QB
with a 5-12 record as a starter
with 13 TDs and 7 picks

Russell Wilson was a 3rd
Derek Carr a 2nd
Andy Dalton a 2nd
Colin Kaepernick a 2nd
Dak Prescott 4th
Nick Foles 3rd
Tyrod Taylor 6th

It just seems like whatever team could possibly give us a second for brissett would do a great deal better by picking a QB with that second instead. I dont see brissett as being better that Carr or Dalton. What am I missing?

Couple of things:

1. Morroco Brown started scouting with the Colts as an intern.

2. In the IndyStar, Ballard said he's got to be bowled over with an offer to trade Brissett.

Not sure this actually relates to your post, but a backup QB doesn't see the field often, so why do we value them so highly? Other backups seem to get much more playing time.

Because when you don't value that position highly, you end up with Curtis Painter filling the role.

Which is the difference between the 1st pick in the draft (the Painter/Orlovsky season) and the 4th pick in the draft (the Brissett season).

If Luck is ever out for a long time, Colts are boned. At that point, you may as well embrace your draft position.

I don't think anyone believes otherwise

On the other hand, back up that can come in for 3-4 games and win 1-2 instead of going 0-4, a stopgap to keep a team in contention until the starter comes back, can make or break a season in this league.

It is even closer - the Colts had the 3rd pick in the draft before trading down with the Jets.


+1; there is so much parity in the league, one or two extra wins can be huge

Value tends to go up based on need and desperation. Like it's been said his value going into draft may not be high but let a 2-0 team start next year and their QB go down watch how much his value rises.

I just don't think you keep a 2nd round value (IF a team makes that trade) in your pocket -- given it has an expiration date -- on the chance you may have to play that card. The chances your 2nd round pick impacts your franchise long-term >>>> the chances that QB is ever called upon to keep your season alive and does so.

If Brissett walks, highest Colts would get would be an end-of-3rd comp pick. Ballard might play for that (and I doubt it would even be that high), but give me the 2nd round pick if anyone comes calling.

Yeah, sounds like ballard and the team really him. Ballard said he would have to be blown away by an offer. As NL4C said, that’s probably a deperate team during next season. I think its his last year under contract so i hope they get something for him unless tbey plan on resigning him.

A wr that fights for the ball is a good thing.

Yes. But a WR that has to constantly fight for the ball because he can’t separate is not. That may be ok for a vet that has slowed down, don’t want to draft a guy like that. And a lot of the WRs this draft look like that kind of guy to me.

Build a better team. Pats and Steelers do it. Make a good game plan

This is the way... Pat's and Steelers haven't given a shit who they have kept as their backup in the last 15-20 years.

That wasn't the only reason. When you have a tight cap, and a QB who wants to take every snap in practice, not many guys want to sit and watch and rust