Colts vs Chiefs - Rushing
 

Marlon Mack alone put up 148 yards against the 4th ranked run defense in the Texans. The Texans gave up only 84 yards per game rushing on the season. The colts rushed for 222 total.

The Chiefs are ranked 27th best against the run, giving up 132 RYPG on the season, and 150 RYPG in their last 3 games against the Chargers, Seahawks and Raiders. ranked 16th, 1st and 25th, respectively.

Indianapolis is ranked 17th in rushing yards per game.

Seattle (1st) rushed for 210 against them, the chargers (16th) 119, the raiders (25th) rushed for 127.

If we can run the ball, Mahomes becomes a non-factor.

Agreed.

The KC defense is VERY vulnerable to a good, well disciplined offense. Our gameplan needs to be one of ball control with percise, quick hitting passing to move the chains and lots of rushing to eat the clock. The Colts offense can do both of that.

We will see. I don't think we should be favored (and we are not) but I think we have a punchers chance in this game if we start as hot as we did against Houston. That first half (plus the game in Dallas) when the Colts play their best shows that we can play with anyone in the league.

House money, Freaks. The Colts are playing with house money. I hope they let it all hang out.

Walk Worthy,

Nope. The Colts can run for 250 yards, but they'll lose if they get FGs instead of TDs.

Just get to 31 points one way or another.

For the first time in years in a playoff game, I think this is the best strategy for the Colts

keep the ball away from the other team with long sustained drives and the running game

Its what teams did for years, or tried for years, against Manning, so now we are on the other side of it.

Should see lots of mack and the running game. especially without TY banged up.

A successful running game is a must for this game. Need at least 200 yards on 35 plus carries. We all seem to agree that if they can run well, they can win this game.

On D, (provided they are running well) the bend don't break pass defense needs to be implemented. Keep the receivers in front of you and force them into getting impatient.

They certainly need touchdowns and not field goals. I absolutely agree with that. But I think you may be under selling how important limiting the number of possessions likely is. I’d gladly take 27 points and a few less KC offensive possessions. If the Colts get in a track meet with KC I’m not sure 31 points is enough. As potent as the Colts offense is I don’t see “scoring points” as the best way to beat the Chiefs. Making that KC offense press and be overly aggressive against the Colts zone D provides the best opportunity for a win IMO. Especially considering Andy Reid’s history, this being Mahomes first ever playoff game, and the injury to TY. Add in the effects on the crowd and that the KC D’s best attribute is their ability to rush the passer and this should be a game plan that leans very heavily on Mack and the OL pounding defenders into the grass.

I completely agree with the bold. What I fail to understand is how "limiting # of KC possessions" --> "Maholmes becomes a non-factor."

If the Colts successfully limit KC to something like 7 possessions and they score 5 TDs, KC still wins the game. What you mean to say is that the Colts need to limit possessions and be more efficient than KC in those limited possessions. Simply limiting possessions doesn't make Maholmes a non-factor.

When healthy (like they are now) this offensive line has been completely dominating. Kravitz pointed out that when all 5 starter are in they average 150 yard a game and 5 yards per carry. They have also given up zero, yes zero, sacks in the last 6 games they have played together as a unit.The other team knows that the Colts plan to totally disrespect them and there is apparently nothing they can do about it. It's amazing and wonderful to watch. We don't just have a punchers chance (sorry Sherck) we are the better team. Until someone scorches this defense I am officially on their bandwagon. How many times do they have to dominate games before we stop not believing how good this defense really is? If Parcels was right and you are what the record says you are this is as good a football team as anyone over the last 11 games. The front 7 is incredibly athletic and disruptive and even though I keep thinking that the names on the back of our defensive backs suck, their play says otherwise. We may not take it all, but there is no team that the Colts need to fear. They are the ones to be feared this time around and they know it. All this and I didn't even mention the coaching staff. I'm pumped and set up for a huge fall but I don't give a shit. I'm all in with this team.

Ok, my bad - I miss understood. And to be clear the quote about making Mahomes a non factor wasn’t from me. I agree with your point. It makes Mahomes an even bigger factor IMO by putting additional (self imposed) pressure on him and forcing him to be efficient and mistake free. It’s a question of whether or not he can handle that pressure in his first playoff game.

I may be overconfident but KC doesn't really scare me.

They beat 2 playoff teams this year. They have 3, maybe 3.5 quality wins if you want to give them a half point for beating the Browns the week after Hue got fired.

Mahomes last 4 games were good, but not superstar-level like earlier. And it wasn't that KC had nothing to play for, the Chargers were right there with them for the division.

This will be Mahomes first ever playoff game. 1st time QBs don't usually do well in those circumstances.

Everyone in KC knows the history of the Colts ruining their playoff hopes. The Arrowhead crowd will be nervous as shit.

KC has some stars on defense but they had a soft schedule and still didn't play well.

Andy Reid's postseason flops are legendary.

The Colts dominated the Texans without playing their best football for half the game. I don't think we should realistically be favored, but I don't think the KC offense is as potent now as they seemed earlier in the season. Especially without Hunt.

Yep, totally agree. If he has fewer opportunities, that magnifies any mistakes.

We will not find a way to make Mahomes a non-factor. He is a superhero QB like Luck, Manning, Brady, etc. He may be unproven in the playoffs, but he's going to affect the game more than anyone else in a red jersey.

People shit on KC's defense, but they are 1st in sacks and forced fumbles. Their secondary is weak, so getting the ball out of Luck's hands quickly to skill players in space is probably our path to sustained drives, which I completely agree is the best possible gameplan from where I sit.

I want to see Mack and Hines involved early and often.

With Hilton playing hurt and Ebron still not being a reliable possession target between the 20s, Hines's utility as a slot receiver is going to be critical to moving the chains. He was invisible against Houston because we didn't need him in that gameplan, and I have to wonder if that wasn't by design. I think Reich is cooking up something good for him this weekend.

As far as our defense, I admit I haven't watched much KC football this year. I'm not sure what Mahomes's tendencies are when facing the rush. What I've observed does show he has an uncanny ability to make accurate throws to multiple targets while evading rushers. I worry that even a very disciplined zone scheme, with deep safeties and short-throw concessions, is not going to be enough to get him off the field. We will need to get to him and hit him. Squeezing the pocket and forcing him to throw isn't going to get it done. We'll probably have to rely on some pass rush wrinkles with safety and LB blitzes so someone can get a free path and actually make a sack.

We'll find out on Saturday one way or another, but I strongly disagree with this take. KC is really damn good and they pose a major test for this defense with Kelce, misdirection, and playaction. As much as we make out of Maholmes being a first year starter, KC is going to target the Colts first year starters at LB. Their lack of familiarity with KC could be the deciding factor.

Unless Maholmes makes a few mistakes, I don't see how the Colts keep KC below 30 points. At that point, it comes down to whether or not the Colts offense can keep up.

Chris Jones is a stud and just a tick behind Aaron Donald. Hopefully the line can keep him in check.

Honestly, I prefer an inside threat to an outside threat.

Nelson / Kelly / Glowinski are working magic in the middle. Luck knows how to climb the pocket to escape. It is the outside stud rusher whom Luck seems to have the most problems with.

We will see. Is it Saturday yet?

Walk Worthy,

ok, sure, I used a bit of hyperbolic language, but the point is still there. Effectively running the ball may create a mismatch in TOP and (even better) may create a mismatch in the number of total plays.

Doing so will limit the extent to which Mahomes is a factor in the game, first because he is playing less, second because our defense is rested.

In all four of KCs losses, they lost TOP and also lost total plays.

Seattle won TOP 35 to 25
SD won TOP 33-26
NE won TOP 36-23
LAR won TOP 31-29

Sure, this stat means less than it did before, and is not the only benefit of an effective game running the ball.

Here are the points allowed in KCs losses:
54
43
38
29

I think you're putting too much emphasis on controlling the clock and not enough on needing to score, score, score. Get TDs first and foremost, limit big plays, and get a couple turnovers. TOP will take care of itself.

Mahomes first playoff pass is going to be an interception. Calling it now.

yep, playing ball control is great but only if the drives end up with TDs. I dont think a bunch of field goals will do it.

From what I have read, despite the poor defensive stats, KC has a good pass rush with their front four. Two DL with 10+ sacks on the year. And they don't blitz much, so they will have 7-8 back in coverage most plays

Will be a challenge for Luck and Reich, but I think they can't score on the chiefs

Our secondary is what worries me the most. Really have not faced a QB all year of this quality. Not even Brady this season

Agree that effective running game and limiting KC offensive time of possession is key.....also I'd add to stat that not only did they only beat 2 playoff teams, they lost to 4 so they are vulnerable against better teams. Too lazy to look this up and since I haven't seen KC play, not sure but I think I've heard that he has a large number of interceptions to go along with his star wars passing/TD stats????

If true, another key for this game is our D's ability to get one or two turnovers....I'd love to see our D get 7 to 14 points to go along with 21+ points on offense. Go Colts!!!!

I just don't think Mahomes can sustain the pace he started at, and when you look at the end of his season, he didn't. I'm not saying the Chiefs will be easy. But they are not the juggernaut they were thought to be through the first 11 weeks.

I actually agree their defense will be better than how they're ranked. They have too many talented players to actually be that bad.

Everyone is touting the Colts D as being stellar lately, and it has been impressive, especially against the run. As for pass defense, in the last 10 games, the best passer they've faced was Eli Manning and he did pretty good against the Colts. Mahomes is a much bigger threat in the passing game than the current Eli Manning. Colts need to score often, but long sustained scoring drives can help this D tremendously.

There have been quite a few open holes in the Colts zones over the last few games. Only Manning consistently hit them. I expect Maholmes to as well and for Reid to scheme those holes even wider by getting Leonard and Walker to respect the run and other wide receiver actions like jet sweeps.

For anyone particularly confident in this game, just remind yourself that the Colts beat the worst playoff team last week. That Houston game doesn't mean anything.

Not really...

Mahomes has 50 TDs, 12 INTs and 66% comp %

Luck has 39 TDs, 15 INTs, 67.3% comp %

Mahomes is going to light this defense up. My only hope is we can make them go the length of the field slowly and force a few field goals and maybe a punt or two.

Yep, but I'll add the hope that he airmails a couple balls up the middle of the field for picks. Also, this feels like a game where Leonard could get a big FF with how the Chiefs like to play for some short passes and run-after-catch. If Colts get to +2 in turnover differential, I like their chances.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2...visional-round

Plus more stats highlighting how good the Colts have been since Week 7:

• Luck has posted the league's best QBR (80.6).
  
• The Colts are third in points per drive (2.6) and in series success rate (76.9 percent).
  
• The Indy defense is second in points allowed per drive (1.5) and third in touchdown drive percentage (17.1 percent).
  
• Indianapolis is the only team to rank in the top five in both offensive (fourth) and defensive (third) win expectancy.
  
• The Colts have the best point margin (plus-131 points) and average point margin (plus-11.9 points per game) in the league.

Picked by Wilson

Yes and for once come down with a tipped pass or 2.