Kiper says Colts and Dolphins are working on 1st round trade
 

https://twitter.com/2sochmo1984/stat...84176008957953

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Multiplying picks is great but dropping that low will take us out of the running for a lot of very good players in this draft. We need difference-makers on this roster.

Pics 11 and 42 have a value of 1730 on the Jimmy Johnson chart. Pick 6 is worth 1600 points. So technically Colts would win that trade, but for me that wouldn’t be enough. Their 3rd round pic is #73 and has a value of 225. What in the world could be offered that didn’t include 11 I don’t know. If Ballard trades it for primarily future picks I may loose my mind. Hopefully this is a smoke screen to push Buffalo to sweeten the pot. 11 & 42 and a future 1 would interest me. Short of that I think I’d rather hold out for a better deal from Buffalo or make the pick at 6.

I certainly hope that this is Kiper BULLSHIT!! We need AT LEAST one difference maker from this draft, not just starters. Moving down again lessens that from happening.

I would actually like a few more picks in the 3rd 4th and 5th. There are some good players lower in this draft. But at 11 we could see Roquan Smith there, maybe Fitzpatrick, Derwin James, Vita Vea, Denzel Ward, McGlinchy, Harold Landy, Isiah Wynn. So there should be some players there. If we are targeting Landry or Ward that seems like a good spot to take them.

We need at least a starting CB, WR, LB in this draft.

I think Ballard’s insistance on building almost exclusively thru the draft means he almost has to take a volume approach. There are simply way to many holes to fill using the standard 7 pics. Right now he has to sacrifice quality for quantity. I don’t agree with it, but I will not at all be surprised by it.

Did anyone hear this first hand? Anyone heard of this "Jacob Michaels" who left the original post?

I'm fairly suspicious of this info for a few reasons: (1) I think anyone trading up from 11 to get a QB will need to be prepared to pay a lot to do so - something like two 1sts and some change, and (2) even if the Dolphins were interested in making such a move, why would they be doing it now - long before the draft and with the potential to be left with egg on their face if none of the top QBs (much less Mayfield specifically) aren't available at 6? They'd be setting themselves up for disaster. Any number of teams could try to trade up to a higher slot and snatch the players away, leaving the Dolphins GM to look like an idiot.

If anything like this went down, I'd expect it to happen only after the dust has settled and the Colts are on the clock. If the trade went down now, the Colts would presumably have to accept less because they'd be trading a pick which won't guarantee Miami the player they supposedly want (Mayfield) and maybe no QB at all. This would also tell me that Ballard REALLY isn't enamored with any of the players at the top of this draft.

no surprise IMO
 

the Buffalo trade always seemed to me more likely to happen with the Giants--if I'm the Bills GM and I'm giving away #12 and #22, I'm a lot more inclined to do it for #2 than for #6

one "equal value" trade with the Dolphins could be #6, #67 and #104 for #11, #42 and #73. That would likely leave the Colts still having a shot at one of the 7 best non-QBs in the draft, and moving from #67 and #104 up to #42 and #73.

I can’t find any confirmation on this from anywhere. I see some twitter chatter about it, but it’s all from unknowns and no source - probably this guys tweet. I found a tweet from Draft Talk saying the rumor about Miami not giving up 11 is not true, but doesn’t address the rest. And I don’t know how reputable they are.

I can’t imagine them not giving up 11. That has to be false. I hope. The rest doesn’t surprise me. I think Ballard would prefer volume in this draft. And he pressed the Jets to seal the deal way before the draft. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pushing the same now. He doesn’t care who is there at 6, he wants more picks. The dolphins care who is there so I could see him pushing them to do it now or never. Like you said, the return just doesn’t seem enough though. Their 1,2,3 and a next years 2? You’d have to consider it. Or he could be pushing Buffalo.

It’s entirely possible the teams in the top 5 don’t want to deal. We here conflicting reports on the Giants, but I could definitely see Cleveland and Denver staying put to get one of the elite non QBs. That would be great for Ballard.

I’d guess Ballard wants additional picks more than he wants to improve the quality of his existing pics. Moving pics from rounds 5, 6, and 7 up into rounds 2, 3, and maybe 4 might work. But I think his goal is to get as many chances as he can in rounds 1, 2, and 3 where you have a better chance of acquiring starter level talent.

I call bullshit, on this rumor.

no doubt, but I'm not sure where those additional picks in the higher rounds would come from, especially in a trade with Miami. Maybe 2019 picks, but I'm not a big fan of future picks. The trade I listed at least allows Ballard to move from 3rd (#67) to 2nd (#42) and from 4th (#104) to 3rd (#73). And someone like Smith, Edmunds or Fitzpatrick should still be there at #11.

If, and only if, Chubb is already gone at #6, I'd think about making that kind of trade if it were offered (rather than using the pick on Nelson). If Barkley's still there at #6, my fear is that the owner will "overrule" the GM and use the pick rather than trading it.

There is absolutely no way the Colts would do that deal and not get the #11 pick from them.

the trade I listed? They do, that's one of the major points of it. Colts send #6 to Miami for #11, but also move up from #67 to #42 and from #104 to #73. They still get an impact player at #11 (Smith, James, Fitzpatrick, maybe Edmunds if the 49ers don't take him) and they increase their chances of finding major contributors, if not starters, in Rounds 2 and 3 with #36, #37, #42, #49 and #73.

But the whole trade would hinge on 1) Chubb already being gone, 2) a QB still being available, and 3) Miami being convinced he could be their eventual QB.

I'm not sold on Mayfield or Allen myself, but I may be in the minority at this point.

I totally agree. This is one reason I think this report is total bullshit.

That shithead Florioisadick at PFT has not mentioned anything all day about this reported trade rumor, so I agree with you...... BULLSHIT!!

Overall, the report sounds credible in a very general sense (that both sides may be talking) but the part about Miami keeping #11 does sound like a leak to Kiper planted by someone in the Dolphins building.

If I'm Ballard the trade HAS to start with getting #11 and then I ask Miami's GM "what else you offering?"

Laremy Tunsil (to move back to Guard where he excelled in 2016 as a rookie) would be an intriguing sweetener to offering us the #11 overall pick.

The only trade Ballard should even be contemplating right now is getting Buffalo's 2 first round picks. Even at that, if Chubb is still sitting there, I draft him at number 6. The one guy I don't want the Colts drafting is Barkley that high. Barkley is no Edgerrin James.

I get the sense Ballard is a guy who's generally more interested in draft picks than in someone else's players. I may be totally off base with that, but given how much he's talked about building through the draft, I think he'd prefer something like the trade I mentioned, or a similar one.

And I'd be surprised if he made any move before the actual draft. Wait and see if Chubb gets picked at #2, #4 or #5, and if he does, THEN maybe do a deal.

Unless there really is another "mystery player" Ballard really likes at #6 (Edmunds?)

Maybe not the total package, no. Edge had i incredible pass blocking skills. But in every other way he has as much or more than Edge.

I'd love to get Buffalo's 2 1st round picks for #6, but what if they send those to the Giants for #2 and Chubb's drafted before #6? I'd certainly consider a trade at that point, if it meant accumulating more 2nd and 3rd rounders while still having a pick in the first third of the 1st round.

I also fear that, if Barkley somehow drops to #6, the owner may insist on picking him. Which, given the Colts' offensive line and needs, would IMO be sad for both the franchise and for Barkley.

Apart from the fact that the Colts need help in rushing the passer, Ballard has given no strong indication that he's targeting Chubb even if he's available at 6. The trade down from #3 also suggests this, since at the time it looks like a near lock that Chubb would be available at #3. I'm not saying he won't take him if he's available, but (as I think rm1359 pointed out in another thread) I'm not sure he's as enthralled with Chubb as most of the general public seems to be.

there are multiple ways to get pressure on the passer, and they don't all involve weakside defensive end. For all I know, Ballard may look at Edmunds and see someone who can potentially pressure the passer more effectively, from more spots on the field, than Chubb or anyone else in this draft.

Though I agree is not likely, I could see a scenario where Ballard agreed to such a trade. He's certainly shown he's not out to please the masses (Hankins), and I think if the deal was good enough he would take it regardless of the criticism he would face. I'm sure he'd extract another king's ransom to do it, but he'd do it.

My view of Ballard is not that he's interested in bringing in tons of bodies to fill spots, as some here have theorized, but rather that he's all about value. Maybe a Moneyball type of approach, where he's always trying to maximize his bang for his buck. He takes a bunch of second rounders from the Jets instead of insisting on their first next year. He doesn't sign top free agents and waits for the initial free agency frenzy to subside before he make any moves. He cuts high-priced players that don't fit his scheme.

I think he'll make moves based upon a cold, business-like decision about value and anticipated return. Rookies are cheap with lots of upside if you pick well. Top free agents are usually at their peak, cost exorbitant sums of money, and usually have little additional upside. Fill in any holes with more reasonably priced second or third tier free agents. When a special opportunity presents itself, maybe he'll have the resources to jump at it.

Agreed

Mel Kiper isn't the type of person to break news of potential trades.

Ding Ding Ding...We have a winner!

so what you're saying is, Mel Kiper would be more likely to break his own hair than break any news of potential trades?

You draft Edmunds because you believe in Eberflus's ability to develop LBs and you see him developing into your Ray Lewis or Brian Urlacher with some seasoning and with the understanding that he's going to struggle early. If the Colts draft Edmunds, expect him to look ugly in his rookie year, because he'll be the age of most college football sophomores.

Have to ask about Tunsil and McMillan in any discussions with Miami.

If this rumor is real, it’s more likely posturing to get Buffalo to make a higher offer.

the times I saw Edmunds at Va Tech he was playing more on the outside than inside--although Foster was moving him around some too, at least in the games I saw

by the end of his college career Urlacher was playing about as much safety as he was linebacker, and he had no problem adjusting in the NFL, so I imagine Edmunds would do fine at either OLB or ILB...and it's not like the Colts don't need help at just about every LB position there is

Nope, not even close. Edge was an every down back, don't see Barkley in the same class. I saw probably 3 Penn State games this year and was not real impressed. Just my opinion, but Barkley is not another Edge, he doesn't have Edge's vision. Wouldn't waste a number 6 pick on him.

This isn’t a balanced post. While Barkley may not have Edge’s vision or pass blocking, Edge didn’t have Barkley’s big play or return ability. They really aren’t comparable. They have very different skill sets.

I’ll admit my bias - Edge has always been my favorite NFL player. The only comment I’ll make is that I think some forget what he was pre ACL tear. Let’s not forget he ran a 4.38 40 at the combine. Pre ACL tear James was a pretty damn dynamic player.

This is recency bias. Barkley will probably be great. But Edge was one of the best RBs of all time pre-ACL injury. I don't care about return ability. No NFL team is going to have Barkley return anything. Edge was a complete back. Vision, agility, wiggle, power, toughness, blocking, receiving, speed, instant quickness. If anything I'd say pre-ACL Edge is Barkley's ceiling. I see them as relatively similar in that Barkley is pretty complete. But I don't see him being as powerful a runner despite being heavier.

If there was some way that we were able to get both Trumaine Edmunds and Leighton Vander Esch in this draft, our defense could suddenly become something that we have not seen in decades. The Colts for years have been ripped apart by opposition offenses in the middle of the field, because we just haven't had any decent interior LB play.

I like Chubb, but am far from as enamoured with him as a lot of others, i absolutely love Nelson, but i think our biggest and most glaring need is at linebacker as we need 3 guys, and we only have 1 who in my opinion is starting quality in Simon. The offensive line is something that maybe we can grab a decent guard in the 2nd round. And try to pick up a couple of pass rush specialists with our later 2nd rounder or 3rd.

Given all the expressions of love for Edge here, and since we're on the subject of the draft, how many people were happy when we drafted him at #4? Not many. That was considered a major draft shocker at the time. Ricky Williams was the popular choice that year. Polian basically gave everyone the finger who disagreed, correctly pointing out that Edge fit the Colts offense better than Williams.

Just a little reminder to not get too upset if our pick is someone unexpected. Have a little faith and see how things play out.

I remember being pissed that Polian didn’t take the ridiculous amount of picks Ditka gave up to get Williams, but I don’t remember being pissed at the ultimate selection of James over Williams. Certainly everyone thought Williams would come off the board first, but it’s not like James was considered a major reach. He was known as a top prospect in the draft and was comfortably considered a top 10 pick. I remember Freeney being considered more of a reach than James was.

While I ultimately agree with your point about overreaction, I’ll definitely comment and express my pleasure or displeasure. Might as well go on record with what you think. And I don’t think Ballard has done anything for me to have faith in. It’s his second draft and we don’t have a good sense of his first one. I’m cautiously hopeful about his talent evaluation but he has to have a real resume before there is anything to have faith in.

The better comparison is to LaDainian Tomlinson. He was a dynamic every down back, but was not the all-around player that Edge was.

Don't forget that this is Ballard's first draft with his own staff and scouting dept. Last year he used Grigson's guys and their info.