The Daniel Jones effect is difficult to quantify
 

PFF, as is their wont, assigned him a passing grade for the game…66.5, which ranked him 19th among Quarterbacks after week 1. Digging into their mountain of stats, I discover that only 3.3 percent of his passes were considered big time throws. His expected completion percentage of 75.9% was exactly the same as his actual completion percentage, which means that nobody was dropping balls. Under pressure, he completed 4 of 5 passes. Against the blitz, that number dropped to 68 percent and change.

All of which leads me to the not unsurprising revelation that there’s more that goes into playing the position than anything you can glean from statistics.

Daniel Jones doesn’t bring elite traits to the table. He doesn’t have an arm that will wow you, he isn’t a riverboat gambler. There’s nothing flashy about his game, we’re never going to see a jaw dropping, Anthony Richardson moment when he spins away from pressure, stumbles, and launches a 65 yard TD strike to Alec Pierce.

What he brings to the table is reliability and an unsurpassed work ethic. He recognizes defenses, makes solid pre snap reads, and manages to exploit an opponent’s weaknesses. He keeps the chains moving and extends drives, milking every last play for maximum benefit. If the choice is between forcing the ball into tight coverage 40 yards downfield and settling for a 10 yard crossing play with an 80 percent chance of success, he opts for the easy 1st down. He’s accurate and throws a ball that’s easy to catch; everything isn’t a 98 mph fast ball.

In other words, he’s a pro; and, sometimes, that’s the difference between losing 17-10 and winning 33-8.

He kinda reminds me a little of Philip Rivers !!

The difference is that this is what complimentary football looks like. When you don't go 3 and out every series, your defense isn't tired, and can actually perform when on the field. That said, Jones had a few misfires and should've been picked off at least once. He definitely has things he can clean up. But if he can run a ball control offense that effectively all season, the Colts might be able to compete.

Tom Brady made a lot of "not big time throws" I don't remember him being minimized and discounted for doing it! He executed Shane's plan to perfection, if he can continue to do that, the Colts are going to win a lot of games, and the media will continue to down play it, since most of them trashed him for years! When he is successful, it makes them look foolish, which is almost as enjoyable as watching our Colts win!

I didn't realize how mobile he is. Two plays stand out where it looked like he easily ran away from pressure and completed throws.

I never really got on the AR wagon. I'm of the opinion that Richardson, Rivers, Wentz, Ryan, Foles, Minshew, Flacco have all been just wasted time.

I don't know much about football, but if he needs another year to learn behind a veteran before he is the guy, that means he isn't the guy. Trading AR for a pick will put us in a better situation than we're in now.

They are not going to trade AR. They have to much draft capital and time capital invested in him to dump him for what, a 6th round pick. I am hopeful that this first game was an indication of who Jones really is and that I was completely wrong about him. One game against a total shit team doesn't convince me however and nobody seems to be convinced he can lead us to the promised land of a Super Bowl. If he can hit deep passes like he did Sunday on a consistent basis people may be wrong. I am happy to have something positive to root for.

Yeah, it was a promising start but nothing more than that.

I 100% agree that they wont trade AR, and they wont do so because of the reasons you mentioned.

These are sunk costs. You make the statement that we might Only get a sixth rounder for him, suggesting that's what he's worth. So he is a sixth rounder with a $9M cap hit this year and a $10M cap hit next year.

I dunno how all this works, but just know I don't need to see anymore to know that AR is dead weight against our cap. I'd rather have the 6th rounder with a $1M cap hit to maybe make a play on special teams.

I get that. I just think there is a nonzero chance that AR hits it big. It depends on crap none of us are privy to. From what I can see from how he handles himself on the sideline AR doesn't appear to be sulking and seems genuinely into the team. If Jones can push the ball effectively downfield on a consistent basis it won't matter but if Jones reverts back to his Giant ways I want be able to see what we have in AR.

o

Another reason why they won't trade Anthony Richardson is because of the fact that football is such a brutal sport, Daniel Jones' season can end in a single play at any time in the season. And if that did happen, Richardson, as erratic, inconsistent, and frustrating as he often has been, is still a young, mobile quarterback who always has a puncher's chance to play well for at least part of a game. Last year's game against the Patriots was an example, when he had a relatively mediocre game overall for 3 and-a-half quarters, but then his sheer will, determination, athleticism, and physical strength drove the team to the winning TD in the final minutes of the 4th quarter.

Peyton Manning was such a great quarterback that he could give a team the proverbial puncher's chance to beat superior teams because of his greatness. Richardson is not that ...... but Richardson's proverbial puncher's chance is the fact that his exceptional athleticism and physical strength give him a shot to overcome his own limitations in the game (erratic passing, trouble reading defenses, etc.) to still be good enough to pull out a win.


In short, it is better to have an Anthony Richardson waiting in the wings than to have a Mike Kirkland or a Curtis Painter waiting in the wings in case of an injury to the starting QB ...... at least with Richardson, the team still has a shot to overcome his limitations and mistakes, even if it is a long-shot. With a Mike Kirkland or a Curtis Painter, they have virtually no shot at all.

Good points, If Jones becomes Jones and we need a backup to step up, I would just rather see what we have in Riley Leonard.

If I was having difficulty doing my job that was paying me $7M a year, I would have a veritable fleet of people and non-people resources helping me fill in the gaps in my skill set. The return on investment is staggering.

With all AR's resources and 3 years to bring them to bear, he has managed a 5-7 record. I don't see where he is entitled to the "benefit-of-the-doubt" that the colts org is granting him.

Well, as Tom Moore famously said. It doesn't matter who we have behind Peyton, if he goes down we're fucked.

Shane has found the guy to execute his offense, if the OL holds up and the defense continues to improve, the Colts may be the surprise team of 2025-26!

I want to see him throw to Downs more and also get Pierce involved more....doesn't have to be deep all the time to Pierce. I can't imagine Pierce remaining a Colt if all he does is run deep routes and gets one ball thrown to him! He going to want to go elsewhere!

It's way too early to think Jones will be our answer. We don't know if he was that good or the Dolphins are that bad. Can't wait to see the week two games.

Getting a future 6th round pick for AR does nothing for the team this year, except make Riley Leonard one play away from being our QB.

The man had all day to throw against Miami. It will be interesting to see if Denver can get pressure on him and how he responds. This is what NY fans say, he kills crummy team but has issues with teams that pressure him (who doesn't?). I am hoping that those issues were because the rest of the team in NY sucked (and Steichen has a better scheme) and he can shine here, but have no idea what will happen. It is nice to have some hope and something to watch for.

Where do you get 5-7? He's 8-7.

o


We were also fucked when Bert Jones went down and missed more than half of the 1978 and 1979 seasons. The Colts went from 3 consecutive division title from 1975 through 1977 to back-to-back 5-11 seasons in 1978 and 1979, and Jones' absence was overwhelmingly the biggest factor in that decline.

When Tom Brady missed the entire 2008 season, the Patriots went 11-5 with Matt Cassel at QB.

When Peyton Manning missed the entire 2011 season, the Colts went 2-14 with Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter, and Dan Orlovsky at QB.

The biggest determinant in gauging a player's value is taking said player off of the team, and seeing how they do without him.

o

Might be talking about HOU and TEN from '23 and PIT from '24. He played on 31%, 33%, and 19% of the snaps in those games respectively but they go down as wins for him and not the backup.

8-7 as a starter is correct. 5-7 in games where he's played the most snaps.

The net 3 difference is:

- The Houston win in 2023 where Minshew went 19 for 23 compared to ARs 6 for 10.
- The Tits win in 2023 where Minshew went 11 for 14 compared to ARs 9 for 12.
- The Steelers win in 2024 where Flacco went 16 for 26 and AR was 3 for 4.

8-7 as a starter, sure, but Minshew should get two of those wins and Flacco should get one, that's where I get 5-7.

I don't like the guy, you cant expect me to not use statistics to my advantage.

If AR doesn't play against Houston in 2023, the Colts lose. Yes, he left early, but he left with a 14-0 lead in a game that ended 31-20. Regardless, he's in his age 23 season this year, there's still a lot of time for him to become a good QB.

You beat me to it. Also, he left the Tits game w/ ~4 minutes left in the 1st half and with a 10-6 lead. Not that Minshew didn't do a good job in relief and deserves a Save, but I don't think you take away the win from AR there either.

Some other thoughts on the discussions in the thread:

Jones was definitely much better in week 1 than I thought he'd be, and I'll eat that crow. Hope he can keep this level of play up. We'll see how he does against a better D where there's now some game film on how Steichen wants to use him.

I'd be shocked if we trade AR, and I don't think we should at this point. We'd only save ~$4M in cap space. Now if Jones proves this year that he should be our guy and we decide to move on from AR in the offseason then so be it (this will save us ~$5M in cap space for '26).

Something else with trading AR is that we'd probably bring in a 3rd QB for emergency QB duties. Not seeing where Bean signed anywhere, so I guess we could just bring him back to at least the PS.

Ballard outlined his plan. It's the Smith/Mahomes strategy the Chiefs did. Let's hope it works out as well.

I hope Ballard has the balls to go through with this, if AR does his part.

that's kind of a shot at rivers. dj will come back to earth some. rivers is a borderline hall of famer and will probably get in

o


(vs. BRONCOS, 9/14)


This was the second consecutive game in which the Colts had 0 punts and 0 turnovers ....... I don't know whether or not that's a record for professional football (1920 - Present.)


As an aside, the Colts did turn the ball over on downs twice today, but that does not fall under the turnover category.

o

o


The Colts’ Daniel Jones Problem Is Quickly Becoming Impossible to Ignore

(By Lee Vowell)

https://horseshoeheroes.com/indianap...ossible-ignore


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Daniel Jones is so rude ...... after flaming out with the New York Giants, he was released last season and eventually signed with the Minnesota Vikings. He didn't play. Suddenly an NFL nomad, the quarterback signed with the Indianapolis Colts this past offseason.

Instead of giving in to being QB2, he decided he would be good from his first practice on. He has not stopped being good, though that comes as a surprise to most NFL fans. If Jones was bad with the terrible Giants, then he would always be bad.

As all Colts fans will attest, that theory would be a lie. Jones hasn't just been good with Indy this season; he has been MVP-worthy. In Week 6, he had a terrible interception and should have had another, but he also had the poise to lead the team to a come-from-behind win over the Arizona Cardinals.


Daniel Jones Continues to Rudely Be Good for the Indianapolis Colts


Indy now sits at 5-1, and in sole first place of the AFC South after the Jacksonville Jaguars lost to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 6. The reason why Indy is in first place is that it is good. Another reason is that Daniel Jones is great.

Even with the interception against the Cardinals, his quarterback rating was 101. He completed 22-of 30-passes for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns. Just as importantly, he ran 5 times for 20 yards and a touchdown ...... he was in full control of what his team needed, and Indy would have lost had they not had Jones.

Anthony Richardson kept getting injured in his first 2 seasons, and got hurt in pre-game warmups for Indianapolis ahead of Week 6. The team cannot count on Richardson. They likely weren't sure they could count on Daniel Jones this much ahead of the season.

Now Jones is a player who has to be re-signed, and he is not going to be cheap ...... $100 Million-or-more over the next 3 years is the most likely scenario, if not more. Blame the quarterback for that, though ...... how dare he play so unexpectedly well for the Indianapolis Colts ??? Let's just hope that he keeps doing that.

o