Before we discard Kelly and Smith, consider…
 

The state of the roster.

Resigning Fries is a priority, but it’s no slam dunk. If he walks and we cut ties with Smith and Kelly, we are staring into an abyss if injury strikes. Depth would consist of Glowinski, Freeland, Pinter, Tucker, French, and Coll. Pinter, French, Coll, and Glowinski are all free agents, but…

Even if they weren’t, there isn’t a single player among the backups that I’d trust to play OL in a Saturday afternoon flag football league.

Two years ago, Ballard was virtually crucified because he left the cupboard bare of quality backups on the line. He can’t make the same mistake again. It’s that simple.

Do we really want to go into free agency needing to spend half of our cap space on the line? Do we want to spend 2nd and 3rd round draft picks filling holes we ourselves dug?

When morning breaks on free agency, do we want to face a choice between signing a cover Corner or a Right Tackle, a Linebacker who can cover or a guy who can snap the ball?

On Monday morning, after the draft, do we really want to listen while bozos like Kevin Bowen take to the airwaves complaining about how Ballard passed on an “impact” player in order to take a Guard?

Don’t get me wrong. I recognize that Kelly and Smith are nearing the end. I just think that it makes sense to wring out whatever is left of their ability for another year while we address other needs.

There's a reasonable deal to be had between the Colts and Fries, and if he absolutely won't resign for some reason, the Colts have tags available. I don't think it will get to that point, though, I would think they will work out a deal. As for Smith, is he even reliable at this point? He missed a good portion of the end of the regular season due to an undisclosed personal matter. Since we don't know what that personal matter is, it could be something that could cause him to retire. Stranger things have happened. As for Kelly, he’s on the decline and Bortolini showed enough as a rookie to think he'll be a solid replacement going forward. I think retaining Fries (who was a 7th round pick, by the way), retaining Glowinski, and drafting a couple OL for depth on Day 3 is the smart play. Having a starting OL of Raimann, Nelson, Bortolini, Fries, Goncalves with Glowinski, Freeland, and French as depth is better than most of the league. If Smith is also part of that mix, even better, but I would cut him if he doesn't agree to a pretty large pay cut.

I'd keep Kelly but Smith is very expensive and just not very good, I think he can be replaced easily.

I agree with this assessment.

This is basically the Ballard approach. Convince yourself that those already in your keep are inherently better than anything you could get from another roster, simply based on the fact you are familiar with them.

This is the team run-it-back approach, it is a huge driver in why we can't fucking get over the hump- the players are just "good enough" to keep from being a bottom feeder but they aren't nearly to the level it takes to win on an elite NFL level. Fuck that, it is time to start trimming the fat and sending a message that the floor is now higher and if you can't meet that minimum floor expectation, you can't be a Colt.

That said, this is Ballard, his floor for anyone that has worn the blue and white, is absurdly low, so they will both be Colts, and probably starters, next year.

FUCK CHRIS BALLARD!

You always have a criticism, but how about for once you talk about what you would like to see happen as an alternative instead of just incessantly bitching, whining, moaning, and desperately wishing that Chris Ballard will finally come to your bedroom tonight?

For me, both Kelly and Smith have become part time players, so they are the chief reason depth becomes more important. Keeping Smith is very costly and IMO, not worth it. This money can be used to get some serious depth. As for Kelly, first of all, thank you, you've been a great center for the Colts for years. However, the harsh truth of pro football is that it takes a toll on your body, particularly for interior linemen. If you're going to miss half the season and not be that healthy for the other half, it's time to hang it up. This money can be spent elsewhere and the Colts can have the depth they require.

I am not sure what some of you were watching last year. Braden Smith had a knee injury that he was battling through and was still playing fairly decent football, next to the turnstile that was Dalton Tucker. For what it might be worth he had a 66.2 grade with PFF, which ranked him as the 49th best tackle in the league. He had an 83.3 grade in 2023. We don't know what his personal issues are and I sincerely hope that things are not too catastrophic, he is by far our best option at RT if healthy. He is one of the top 5 RT's in the league assuming he is fully healthy. People also need to realise he is only 28 years old, 29 in March, he is in his absolute prime years as a player. Fingers crossed he, or his family are ok. If he returns to the standards of 2023 he is on a fair market price on this contract at $19.75m

The problem as fans, we are not privy to his ongoing issues so don't know how to plan going forward.......but for the love of god that isn't our job either, we are just fans.

I do agree though that I think it is time to move on from Ryan Kelly. He had a reasonable season last year, ranking according to PFF as the 17th best center. But in his absence Bortolini stepped in and played to a very similar standard, and was ranked as PFF's 22nd ranked center. Kelly excels in pass protection, whereas Bortolini was a more rounded player, but you would like to think he has far more potential to grow and develop as a player. What we would miss, initially at least is the elite level of tactical nous regards protections. Which might be a significant factor with the perceived inabilities that AR has on reading some of the disguises defenses show presnap.

A starting line of Raimann, Nelson, Bortolini, Fries and Smith could be awesome. Goncalves, Freeland, Glowinski, Tucker and French backing them up is also solid depth.

Monies invested in this lineup would be Raimann $3.5m, Nelson $22.7m, Bortonlini, $1.2m, Fries lets guess $13m, Smith $19.75m. That would be a total of 60.15m for the starters, the backups (French $1m, Goncalves 1.9m, Freeland $1.3m, Glowinski $1.5m, Tucker $1m) would command a further $6.7m, for a grand total of about $67m

For context last year we spent $67.3m

I'm not a huge fan of PFF grades, but just by watching, Matt Goncalves was not a noticeable dropoff from Braden Smith, so why pay Smith $20 mil when Goncalves can provide similar play for 3rd round rookie money? I'll put it this way: I'd rather have Jevon Holland and Goncalves starting at RT than Braden Smith.

I was about to comment the same. There is a real question about whether it's optimal to bring him back due to multiple factors. But saying he was playing bad... there's a disconnect for me.

Raimann-Nelson-Kelly-Fries-Smith was a top-3 (arguably top-1) line.

Agreed. That's some of the nuance. I don't think Goncalves was better than Smith last year, and honestly, probably won't be as good as Smith next year. And it would be a feat if he is able to match Smith's peak at some point.

But is it a 90% difference in play like it is in salary? No. And Goncalvez has plenty of upside.

Inherent in my post, would be what I would do- fucking what any GM not named Chris Ballard would do- not sign these two and sign other FA's which are better than them; we HAVE to change this damn culture and create some uncomfortableness at every damn position. Telling a couple old timers that have had good careers but haven't been top level performers of late that they have to go, is a good way to start that process.

I'm not the GM, I don't have the financial modeling in front of me, I don't have access to 22 film for every player in the NFL, and those coming into the NFL, that Chris fucking lazy as fuck Ballard has. So, am I capable of doing the evaluations Chris Ballard and his TEAM are equipped to do in order to say who that means I sign, fuck no. But to answer your fucking obtuse question, I would do what I infer in my post- not bring these two back, along with probably greater than 50% of the half assed effort entitled B level players this fucking asshole has propped up as NFL all-timers.

But alas, we will continue to Ballard for another 330 days or so and be back here at this time next year wondering why we didn't sign "X", "Y", or "Z" instead... pay attention dumb ass, this is the wash rinse repeat cycle we live in under FBF and why we suck over and over.

So you're not willing to actually express an opinion of your own, all you can do is bitch about how poorly Ballard is doing?

So those two guys you want to replace, Kelly and Smith, do you know why it's possible to replace them without spending most of the remaining cap space to do it? Because Ballard drafted a starting caliber RT and C in rounds 3 and 4 last year. I know you wouldn't do that.

If you're not actually willing to have an opinion about what should be done differently, then you should just quit your bitching, because the team certainly wouldn't be better off if they did what you want them to.

It borders on insanity to let Kelly walk and at the same time lose Braden Smith to either retirement or release.

Ballard did that once and we had our worst season since 2017. Who wants to live through that again.

If Smith retires, then resign Kelly. If Smith agrees to stay and restructure, then you consider letting Kelly walk.

Based on Smith's performance he wasn't significantly better than Goncalves, but i know Smith is capable of being a top 5-10 tackle in the league, he has already been that. He was playing with a bum knee most of the year, and yet still played as well as Goncalves.

I am not saying i dislike Goncalves, i thought he played really well for a rookie, and you would like to think that he will develop, but into a true top tier RT, like Smith has been, who knows? I just don't think you discard players who are amongst the best at their position, unless you know he has other issues that are not likely to get better, hopefully that is not the case though, but we don't know.

If we do release Smith, and start Goncalves at RT, i for one am not happy going into the season with Blake Freeland as the primary backup to both tackle positions. We would need to luck out on another mid round gem. And i think we have other holes that we desperately need to find draft picks to fill. Such as TE, Safety LB, and backup RB. As well as CB, backup NT etc.

Both of our starting interior defensive linemen are on the wrong side of 30 now, and the only player on the roster on the interior that i can say i am still happy to keep on the roster is Adetomiwa Adebawore, and he hasn't exactly proven to be reliable either. Davis and Bryan, are both unlikely to be back. Yeah you can bring back Dayo, and use him more to backup Buckner and stop trying to use him on the outside where he really hasn't been that affective, that might be one solution with the new defensive co-ordinator.

We have a lot of holes that we need to fill/upgrade.

What is wrong with you, what continues to be wrong with you after all these years? What should be done? Stop the insanity of fucking buying into your own mythology that the guys you pick / acquire are fucking great and deserve to be re-signed; they aren't and don't! The FACTS are, they aren't fucking good enough. The record over 8+ years is proof of that, so fucking stop doing that same fucking thing.

THAT'S WHAT SHOULD BE DONE! That's why all but 5 people in the entire fan base are irate that his stupid fucking non-producing con-man ass is still here- because he refuses to hold anyone accountable for fucking anything- he rewards performance that isn't acceptable!

Fine, go with the draft picks, good with it, fucking role with the two guys drafted, teach them to be better than the guys they are replacing, tell them that if they aren't, they get pulled and someone else will take their fucking jobs. Send that message to every fucking player on the team. THAT'S WHAT SHOULD BE DONE! Stop rewarding mediocrity! THAT'S WHAT SHOULD BE DONE!

Team Run-It-Back, for a team that can't even make the playoffs... How in the FUCK can anyone justify this shit over and over?

I agree that we have many holes to fill, which is why I would part ways with Smith. It's better to get out on a player a year early than a year late, and having Goncalves means we have a starting caliber RT at a fraction of the price, and the money saved can be reallocated to address some of those roster needs. Backup OT is also a much cheaper position to fill than starting RT. I'd be willing to draft a rookie and let he and Freeland battle it out for the swing tackle spot if it meant Jevon Holland and D.J. Reed/Charvarius Ward were shoring up the secondary.

You're not naming players. While I disagree with them, I can at least respect the opinions of the people who say that Ballard should've gone all in for Justin Herbert or Jordan Love or Jalen Hurts because at least they're trying to find and point out the missed opportunities. You're just bitching for the sake of it. Hell, I'll even feed your rage boner and give you a golden opportunity I thought Ballard missed, which was drafting Montez Sweat in 2019 when he fell to 26. The Colts did end up with Michael Pittman Jr. out of that deal, but players like Sweat typically aren't available that late in the draft.

Without the how of things being done differently, your rants are pointless. According to what you're saying, "doing things differently" could be cutting the whole roster and signing all new players. That would be incredibly stupid, but it would also fit your definition. Everyone here would hate it, and I'm sure you'd be the first and loudest one bitching about it, but that would fit the definition of what you're saying you want done. So put some targets out there, or quit tye incessant bitching. We're all incredibly aware of your constant rage boner for Ballard, you don't need to clog up every discussion with it.

Are you obscenely obtuse, or just flat fucking stupid- or both?

There are lists on here where we have all, nearly to a man, went player by player and debated who should and should not be retained. Fuck man, there are NFL pundits- people that unlike us idiots on a msg board, get paid to talk about such things, that have basically done the same by going through our roster. In BOTH cases, we almost universally agree there are a BUNCH of fucking players that should either be released, or not brought back.

What are you not seeing? This team isn't good enough as constructed. That means there are a LOT of people on the team that need to not be here any more. Yet here we are again fucking developing straw men arguments as to why two old heads that can't stay on the field for whatever reason, warrant at least serious consideration for keeping. WHY? Isn't the predominant complaint about FBF that he refuses to go after other players- principally refusing to acknowledge FA as a real thing? Seems to me, that's what we ALL bitch about with the fucking dude. But alas, here we are, basically being Ballard! Keep what we got because at one point they were stalwarts. No, no, not any longer, this approach needs to be fucking burned and erased from the strategy book. New faces, new standards, new accountability!

You talk about strawmen, then argue to someone who's said multiple times in this thread that we should not resign Kelly and consider cutting Smith that they're obtuse or stupid because you think we should not resign Kelly and consider cutting Smith. Reading comprehension can be helpful, so can not just blindly raging about everything. So far, you've articulated half of a plan, but getting rid of players for more access to cap space does no good unless you have an affirmative plan to use that cap space on something that will make the team better. So what does that part look like for you?

Ladies, ladies. Let's play nice.

To me this is the biggest factor in letting them go as well. Even if both Kelly and Smith were playing at the level they were earlier in their careers you can't pay them like we have been if they're only gong to be available ~60% of the time.

The big difference between now and then is that Goncalves and Bortolini are far better than Pryor and an out of position Pinter.

Definitely agree with this. Of course this assumes that Ballard will take the additional salary cap space we'll get from releasing Smith and put it to good use rather than stick it in his next year(s) lock box. I know he said he is going to be more active in FA at his year end presser, but we've heard similar promises in the past where in the end he didn't do a single thing (improving the secondary in his post '23 season presser for example).

Dammy---- in response to your continued pestering of me to be laptop GM see the great breakdown above from NORM^^^^^^

And for the record, I have in the past provided specific example of what I would do in terms of personnel. You of course couldn't stand the idea (principally because it involved getting rid of a current Colts player [I used to wonder if you were secretly Pags posting, but perhaps you are really Chris Ballard since you seem to think EXACTLY like him and seem really content with sucking forever just because you like your guys]. So shut your trap about not backing up my bitching with "solutions".

As for Kelly. I heard some talk on the radio that Kelly is expecting a 2 year deal for $19M which would make him the 7th highest paid center in the league. Nope, nope, nope. $8.5 for a guy that is basically a part time player when we have what appears to be a good replacement already on the roster and at a steep discount- hell no! Tell him, 1 year deal $6M, games played incentive kicker that can push it to $8M max if he starts all 17, or else take a hike. He would of course walk; Insert Bortolini and go get some decent backup either late in the draft or off someone else's roster (get a vet at the position FBF!).

Smith- due $17M this year, $17 fucking million dollars; that would rank him 10th in RT's. There isn't a fucking way in hell you keep him at that rate. Sorry, probably has had some tragic thing happen in his family, that sucks, doesn't change the economics. There are approximately 30 fucking RT's up in FA this year. About 10 of them making $5M or less. Just go get one of those guys, give them a few extra bucks, draft a mid round RT, and say good-bye to Smith; the time has come for that from both a productivity and money standpoint.

Are you fucking happy now? Or, should I include what type of conditioning program I want them doing, outline my expectations for their sleep patterns, provide feedback on whether they should stay in Indy in the offseason or work with a trainer in Birmingham? You do realize, we're fans here, that none of us actually get paid by the NFL in any way right? What we type here in terms of solutions has effectively ZERO fucking impact on the realities of NFL organizations? Fans rant and rage, because they are FANS, not GM's, not coaches, not NFL players---- You get that correct?

IndyNorm essentially agreed with me in the post you call a great breakdown, so glad we're on the same page now.

I'll take your suspicion that I am Chris Ballard as a compliment as he is one of the best football talent evaluators in the world and he's also pretty good at roster construction. The one area where I've found a lot of disagreement with him is the QB position. Stroud was worth trading the farm for in my opinion. I hope he ends up right about Richardson, because the ceiling is still best QB in the league, it's just clear that I was right that the floor was out of the league in 5 years, and thus far, his results have come much closer to the floor than the ceiling.

You say again that you'd lowball Kelly expecting him to walk and cut Smith, nothing new and courses of action on which we agree. That's not interesting. Interesting would be figuring out what to do with the newfound cap space in free agency, and how that effects draft strategy.

For example, as I've stated many times on this thread, my plan A would be to pursue Jevon Holland and one of D.J. Reed and Charvarius Ward. The secondary is badly in need of upgrades, and doing nothing about that pretty much locks in TE, S, and CB as the first 3 picks in the 2025 draft. I think IDL is a much bigger need than anyone is really giving thought to, and if the secondary is addressed in FA, it frees the Colts up to weight need less and BPA more on Days 1 and 2 of the draft.

Asking you to list your preferred free agent targets isn't exactly the same as asking how you'd staff every role within the organization, or apparently how you micromanage those roles. Saying who you’d prefer the Colts to pursue in free agency takes no insider information, the list of free agents is readily available, any game tape you'd want including All-22 can be had for a $100 per year subscription to NFL+, any statistic you would want is available online, most contract data is readily available for free at OverTheCap, and if you want to invent your own metrics and track them, see what I said earlier about the NFL+ subscription. Yes, we don't have as much information as modern NFL teams, but there is a vast amount of information available to us, even as fans. You don't have to lay out a 5 year development plan for each player you say you'd go after, no one person within an NFL organization would do that. That responsibility would mostly be on coaches and internal staff, not even GMs do those things. GMs are responsible for talent evaluation and acquisition.

I too believe that IDL is a must upgrade. Buck and Grove are fine, but at 30+ yrs old, how much longer can we keep trotting them out there hoping that they don't break down. Not to mention that we've had a dreaming pile of dog shot behind them since we let Autry walk.

So much for building through the trenches. No DT talent since 2020 has been brought in.

One recommendation, that I have to at least slightly ease the DT
Issue is to move Dayo to 3-tech. To me he's a redundancy with Kwity and is better suited to DT.

I could get behind that if he's brought back. That said, it appears to be a great year to need a DT, 7 of Daniel Jeremiah's top 50 are DTs, and that doesn't include freak athlete Deone Walker.

Chris dipshit Ballard is not even close to being one of the best football talent evaluators in the world. And his team building approach sucks.

To be fair he's around league average as far as talent evaluation for GMs, which probably makes him one of the top ~20 football talent evaluators in the world. Agree that his roster construction is below average as the individual parts of his teams are always much better than the sum of the whole.