Its the offseason thread
 

Losing yesterday was disappointing in a "win and in" scenario but it definitely does not feel like 2 years ago when we had 2 shots at a win and in, and screw up against the raiders and then got rolled in a pathetic showing vs the jags.

Yesterday this team had fight, they've had fight in them most of the season. 2 games, Cincy and Atlanta, were weird and felt like they didn't show up.

anyway, a few thoughts heading into the offseason and what to do to get better.

Offense:
its going places. But we gotta hope AR is the real deal. i'm optimistic. I'm not worried about the injuries, falling the way he did on that thin turf with concrete under will separate anyone's shoulder. It that was on dirt/grass, its not serious.
Minshew is fool's gold. He makes just enough plays to win some, but he fails to see open guys, makes throws that are too high (bad footwork) and his placement makes a lot of balls too hard to catch (see the 4th and 1). People say he's the best backup in the league and that may be, but there's not even 32 players starting who are worth starting, so being the best 33rd QB doesn't mean much.

What do we need?

WR: Pittman and Downs are solid, Pierce maybe. Montgomery doesn't bring much, he's just a guy. Definitely look for another impact player here. This group still needs the most help.

QB: AR and maybe keep Minshew and hope he doesn't have to play much. Or maybe find a new backup.

TEs: Its a fair bunch, if we luck into a dynamic player, fine. Not sure how long Cox will stay so we might need another starter, esp if Ogletree is gone.

RBs: JT + some combo of Moss, Sermon and Goodson is no problem.

Tackles: Raimann, Freeland, Smith is OK but I wouldn't mind if we can find an upgrade at RT.

Guards: Nelson and Fries remain fine. A little depth is good.

Center: i thought French has done OK filling in for Kelly. Not sure how much Kelly has left. Again, a little depth.

Defense - I'm not too down on Bradley, he's defense depends on elite secondary, and we just haven't had that, its been thin, injured, and young. Give him help here and I think things look a lot better.

DTs: its a good rotation, a little depth is good.

DEs: same. I know everyone wants a 15 sack per year kind of guy here and hey that's great if we can find one. But the way this group schemes everyone into getting sacks, I think the pass rush/pressure is OK. Run defense has been OK.

LBs: more or less the same, I would like to see 1 new dynamic player here though because its Franklin and Speed and a bunch of guys.

S: not a bad group, losing Blackmon hurt vs Houston, otherwise Thomas and Cross are promising. Adding 1 here is a good idea though.

DBs: the real problem. Not sure how much Moore has left in the tank. Brents is promising. Jaylon Jones might turn out OK. We need probably 2 good ones here and is a position I'd target in the first round.

Gotta get an elite pass rusher to put beside Buckner

Gotta get reliable DBs, Juju is injury prone and can’t be relied on

Gotta get a TE, the way we run the ball I feel like TE game breaker is what this offense is missing. Teams knew all year none of our stars were a threat or needed to be respected whatsoever

To me there is no doubt that CB and WR are the biggest needs. If not a WR, then a young dynamic TE.

I would be happy if Baker never suits up for us again. His tackling all season has been atrocious. The dude is afraid to hit somebody.

Every other position group seems to be at least ok, but could still use depth.

A lot of crucial FA's this year. Ballard has work to do.

Don't forget that Jelani Woods was supposed to be our dynamic TE and the hamstring stole his entire season. He should come back and, along with AR, provide more explosiveness at two positions.

I've not kept up with Ogltree's situation so whatever... But I still like Granson and I liked the little we saw of Mallory.

We need DB help for sure.

It looks like we could pick as early as 15th. Is that right?

Hate to say it, and hard to say it after a season where we broke the sack record, but I think you have to find a new DC. Bradley is just too damn stubborn and willing to let opposing offenses click off 7-12 yard dink and dunk plays all game long. We constantly allow QB's to get in early rhythm and consume clock creating a scenario where every single offensive possession feels like it is a must score situation.

depends I think on whether Jax loses. There are about 1 minute away from doing so. This is mildly hilarious - leading the AFC south all year, and about to be out of the playoffs entirely!

edit: they're toast.

Lawrence is not a franchise guy. Dude may be like 3rd tier at this point. Wow what a collapse.

i am not relying on woods at all. a dynamic te is needed for sure. i like mallory and granson is fine. but we can definitely upgrade

Ballard better spend in free agency this year.

he will. on pittman and grover and moore. i doubt much else

And Gus Bradley needs to go.

It looks like we will pick no later than 17th. Maybe as early as 14th, if I am reading the standings right, and if the right teams win today.

With this years deep crop of quarterbacks the Colts should be able to get
their hands on a player they ordinarily wouldn't be able to get at their
slot or parlay that pick for much needed depth. Ballard needs to step
up here. It's a crossroads that could lead this team one way or the other.
It would be nice if he were more proactive in free agency but if he resigns
our key free agents and extends some of the looming ones that wouldn't
be too bad. still would be nice to sign a player or two. Games are won on
the margins as we painfully witnessed.

The top 18 picks are now set.

Colts end up at 15.

Are there odds out on if teams will trade down in the draft? If so then I'll be putting down some money on Ballard doing it.

I looked up an ESPN piece on the draft order, and as many as 8 teams ahead of us will be looking to draft a QB. This means we could see quality players fall to our pick. No, I am not talking Marvin Jr., but someone very good will be there for us to pick.

With so many QB needy teams at 15 there are some quality players on both sides of the ball that could be there for us. Gonna be interesting on what Ballard does with it.

Nabers or Odunze should be sitting there- we have to take one of those two. This team demonstrated with Steichen at the helm, it could manufacture points with a very limited set of playmakers starting with a pop-gun QB, give Steichen AR with Pittman, Downs, one of those two and likely Pierce, this thing could be stupid explosive.

Going position by position:

QB: The most important position, and we're still not sure if it's right. Richardson looks promising, but a glass cannon won't fire too many times, so we have to hope the injury is a one off rather than a trend. Gardner Minshew thoroughly showed us why he is a top tier backup and nothing more. Great to get you through a 4 game stretch and not implode a playoff run, not so much to guide the team to the playoffs or any further. Need Assessment: Not a position I'd prioritize in any sense of the word, but having a top 15 pick, I'd at least assess the top QBs and see if I like any better than Richardson. If not, no reason to rock the boat. I think Jayden Daniels might fit this offense better, but I wouldn't trade up for him with Richardson on the roster.

RB: Jonathan Taylor is arguably the best RB in the NFL when healthy. Moss is likely gone, and Sermon and Goodson leave much to be desired as a RB2 and RB3. Need Assessment: Backup needed. Moss is likely gone, and nothing else on the roster inspires confidence as a backup. I want Frank Gore Jr. in part because he's good and in part because he's Frank Gore Jr.

WR: If you don't believe Michael Pittman Jr. is a WR1, your standards for a WR1 are too high. I would argue Pittman is a top 10-15 WR in the NFL. Josh Downs is already one of the best slot receivers in the league, and carried his tenacity over from college to the NFL. Downs is not afraid to go over the middle or fight for the football. Alec Pierce is the prototype physically for a deep threat boundary receiver. This group is a solid top 3. Need Assessment: Depth could be had here, but DJ Montgomery is interesting enough for a WR4, and Dulin is likely back next year. Would I add Malik Nabers if I could? Absolutely, he looks like the next Reggie Wayne. But beyond adding a truly elite talent, I wouldn't bother adding here.

TE: Mo Alie-Cox is a backup TE making starter money, I think it's time to move on. Health is a huge issue with this position, with several of the other TEs having missed significant time. Woods could be a long term answer if he can get on the field. Granson and Mallory are more big slots than true TEs. Need Assessment: Unfortunately, the Colts for the most part sat out last year's TE class, which was arguably historically good. This year's class is not close in terms of talent. Are there any good FA TEs? The Colts need help here, and Brock Bowers is unlikely to be available at 15.

OT: Bernhard Raimann made the second year leap, I am very comfortable with him as the starting LT for the next 5+ seasons. Braden Smith was hurt quite a bit this year, but has generally been a reliable starter at RT. Because of Smith's injuries, the Colts got an extended look at Blake Freeland, who performed much better than you'd expect from a 4th round rookie, could fill in admirably at either LT or RT, and will make an excellent swing tackle going forward. Need Assessment: None. Starters and backups are quality and will all be here long term.

OG: Quenton Nelson is back, so that's good. Will Fries was adequate as a starter at RG, didn't stand out positively or negatively. Need Assessment: Starters are fine, depth could be improved. I would definitely look for a Day 3 IOL or two in this draft.

OC: Ryan Kelly looked more like his old self this year, which was his 8th in the league. He may have a few more years of quality starting left, but it's not too early to start looking for his replacement. Wesley French is a quality backup center, he filled in well for Kelly at times this year. Need Assessment: I wouldn't be looking for a OC, but if the next Creed Humphrey fell into my lap on late Day 2 or early Day 3, I'd take him.

DE: The depth of this position is fantastic, but none of these guys is going to keep an opposing OC up at night. Kwity Paye is an excellent athlete and disciplined run defender, but his athleticism has not translated into elite pass rushing skill. Dayo Odeyingbo shows some promise as a pass rusher both from the edge and interior of the DL, but ideally he's your number 2 or 3 rusher in a Justin Tuck type role. Samson Ebukam was a quality signing and is a quality starting caliber talent. Again, he's a guy across from whom you'd want an elite starting talent. Tyquan Lewis is a decent rotational piece, but I'd let him walk if he wants more than what he got last year. Need Assessment: Top of the Free Agent class and top of the Draft are the only places I'd look for this position. Danielle Hunter and Chase Young will likely hit the market at this position. Hunter is the proven talent play, while Young is the boom or bust play. In the draft, Jared Verse likely gets to 15, and he looks like Paye with pass rush moves and better football awareness. Verse has developed swim, rip, chop, and spin moves. I'd strongly consider him at 15.

DT: This position is deep and has top end talent at the top. Aaron Donald and MAYBE Chris Jones comprises the full list of 3 techs that I'd rank ahead of DeForest Buckner. Dexter Lawrence comprises the list of 43 NTs I'd rank ahead of Grover Stewart. Eric Johnson and Taven Bryan are competent backups, and Adetomiwa Adebawore is a freakish athlete who could develop into the next Buckner. Need Assessment: If you find the next Buckner, take him. The Colts won't have a need at the position unless they make one.

LB: What an embarrassment of riches the Colts had at this position just 12 months ago. E.J. Speed was the 4th LB on that team. One Bobby Okereke free agency and Shaq Leonard release later, and this unit is much less deep. Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed are quality starters, and Ronnie Harrison is a quality depth piece if he moves back to LB. Need Assessment: Depth is the need here, I'd look for a Day 3 athlete in a similar vein to Franklin or Speed as an addition here, but that's about it.

CB: The kids played. The kids went through a lot of growing pains. Juju Brents missed like half the season with hamstring injuries. Ultimately, the boundary CBs Ballard drafted look like they will be quality starters if they can stay healthy. Jaylon Jones outplayed his draft status to become a quality starter and Brents looked good generally when healthy. Kenny Moore was reliable once again in the slot, and should be a priority to re-sign. Need Assessment: While Moore must be brought back, the reason for that is he's really the only slot CB the Colts have. They need to change that, and CB is a place I'd look on Day 2 of the Draft, maybe even Day 1 if the value isn't there at pass rusher. The primary need is slot CB, but I wouldn't be upset with a guy who could play the slot or the boundary.

FS: The Colts seem to be differentiating the free and strong safety position, so I'll do so here. Nick Cross cost the Colts the playoffs on the first play from scrimmage last night (he was the deep help Brents was expecting that caused Brents to get beat to the inside on a post route), but overall was a much better player this year. His athleticism shows up when he's on the field, and he closes quickly. He might be better off at strong safety in this defense going forward, but he has the speed and athleticism to play the free safety position. He's still young, so there's also room for growth here as next season will be his age 23 season. Rodney Thomas II followed up a surprising rookie campaign with a solid second season, and he is the who I would pencil in as the starter going forward. Need Assessment: As far as I'm aware there are no Jessie Bates type players in free agency and no Sean Taylor or Earl Thomas types in the draft, there's no reason to invest in this position since the Colts will have at least 2 and possibly 3 players on the roster who can play the position.

SS: Julian Blackmon transitioned to this position from FS this year, and played well. He deserves a contract extension, and hopefully the Colts will give it to him. Nick Cross could transition to this position and I think would perform better at this position. Finally, does Ronnie Harrison stay, and if so, is it at SS or LB long term? Need Assessment: If Blackmon is not re-signed, a safety will be needed. If he is re-signed, depth at most. They need to re-sign Blackmon.

ST: I'm grouping K and P together because Gay and Sanchez don't need to be replaced. Need Assessment: None

If no worthy pass rusher is there and Nabers is, you have to pick him. Everything about his game reminds me of Reggie Wayne.

If there is a top-end WR you can realistically get, get him. But if not, I don't sweat our WR room. Our 1,2,3 will almost certainly be intact. I'll eat my own face if we don't re-sign Pittman. These guys will all have more opportunity with AR's arm talent and overall impact.

With Pass-Rusher... over the years I've just become reserved to the fact that there just aren't many of them. I'm talking about the guys that OC's have to gameplan directly against. It's like winning a scratch-off. Most of the time they're gone with premium picks (and most of the time even those picks don't pan out). And if any do happen to make it to free-agency... why? They're either low character, injured, or unrealistically expensive.

Aside from that, seems to me that the best shot might be to have an underrated kid fall slightly in the draft. And not even like a TJ Watt falling to #30 overall. But like JJ Watt or Demarcus Ware or Dwight Freeney... all three of these guys were taken at #11 overall instead of top-3 or top-5 like they probably should've been with hindsight.

So do you use your top pick on a scratch off? Or do you roll with your DL that isn't spectacular, but is solid/deep... and use that pick elsewhere? I don't know.

I would like to see us add a CB to our mix. Anything to get Baker off the field. That could be the first or second round. That said, BPA in round 1, at position of need.

Wow, this may have been posted somewhere previously and if so, sorry for not picking up on it. Collins was targeted 9 times, caught 9 passes for 195. That's it, that's the end, no way you keep Gus Bradley after that- and I don't give a F if it was me out there at CB---- he was the ONLY thing you had do game plan for in the pass receiving scheme and you let him do that---- nope, F that, DC must go after that type of bullshit in the biggest game of the year.

I think I’m tried of Chris Ballard’s bullshit 8 year rebuild. He hasn’t won shit. No division titles & not one home playoff game. This next year should be make or break for him

Look at the sack leaderboard list. Aside from seeing why Justin Madubuike is about to get PAID, you'll see that many of those players were drafted much later than the top 15. Lots are actually late 3rd/early 4th round picks, oddly enough. Maybe it would be better to pay Danielle Hunter and draft Malik Nabers, if he's available, that is.

Almost the same thing with Devante Adams the week before. No plan to take away the oppositions main pass caching weapon has become a trend.

A trend that has to end.

At Steichens press conference this morning, he made it pretty clear they want Bradley back.

Or maybe that's just a thing that can happen with young secondaries? I know Davante's second TD was just a great play by him and honestly couldn't have really been defended better.

Thats my view. We just need experience and some key additions to this secondary and maybe even some improvement in pass-covering LBs to sub in on passing downs.

If they don't tag Pittman he may be gone. Say's he owes it to himself to test free agency.

https://horseshoeheroes.com/posts/mi...ynM-w0ZyTWyfr4

o


Good info ...... not necessarily that info that I wanted to hear, but good info nonetheless.

o

We'll see if he changes his tune, but so far he has never shown any signs of sounding disgruntled. Even about the possibility of being tagged didn't induce a combative response despite the fact that nobody wants a 1-year deal.

I think every player/agent gets as much information as possible. It's up to the Colts to bring him back.

I liked his response to playing under the tag. heck yea, who wouldn't play for 23 mil for a season. I think he is telling the Colts, if I stay its gonna hurt.

BB would never let that happen, guaranteed. He always took away the top offensive threat. That is why he won so many SBs

I'd prefer Wiggins or Mckinstry, and at least one of them should be there at 15. Grab Walker from UNC in the second round.

Well, that and rampant cheating.

Here's what I'd like to see us do in the offseason on top of re-signing our own (w/ MPJ being the highest priority followed by Grover, Moore, and Blackmon):

- Add a starting outside CB to go along w/ Brents. Keep Flowers and Jones as depth and push Baker to either the bottom of the depth chart or off the roster.

- Add at least 1 WR, if not 2. Would be good to bring in/draft someone to compete w/ Pierce, but at least bring in a couple of decent WRs for depth.

- Add more pass rush via the draft or FA.

- Add NT depth. Our run D really went to shit without Grover.

- Add at Safety. Cross showed why he still remains a project and Thomas took a step back this year. Would be great to bring in a starter, but if nothing else add some depth.

- IOL depth.

As for the draft I'd like to see us go w/ BPA at CB/WR/DE or maybe S if there's a special talent that falls in our lap with our 1st pick.

Yeah, I see what you're saying. Although, the thing for me is... well a couple of things...

For one, as I've said a bunch of times on these boards: I think sacks can be among the most misleading stats in football. Not that I think they're useless. I just think they require a lot of context.

Especially if we're looking at a single given year. We see guys all the time have an outlier year and then return to their own status quo. If I looked at the leaderboard last year, I'd see 3rd-rounder Alex Highsmith with 14.5 sacks. He came back to Earth this year and now 3/4 of his seasons of 2, 6, and 7 sacks.

But, anyway, to your point... Guys like Hendrickson and Crosby are 3rd/4th-rounders that are yearly problems from OC's. Those are the guys that worry you, just like the scary 1st-rounders. Even Chris Jones was a 2nd-rounder. So they can be found. But the odds are low even for 1st-rounders, so it's only less likely you find the next Hendrickson. But shit, even Hendrickson didn't blow up until year-4.

Just for shits... a quick count from the top 23 sack guys (the double digit guys)... I think I counted 14 1st-rounders, with 11 of those being top-15 (maybe top-13, can't remember) guys. Like two 2nd's, five 3rd/4th's, a 7th and an undrafted. For whatever that's worth.

When I look into it, I usually end up in the same place... these fuckers are hard to find.

His defenses, even to this day, have always been built around individual game designs and negating your biggest weapon. He forced you as a staff to figure out how to win games with your B guys.

Gus Bradley does nothing of the sort. Same damn game plan regardless of the opposing QB and receiving corps on the opposing side of the ball. Since he has been here we have constantly been on here bitching about the stupid completion percentages over and over, and it never fucking changes no matter what the fucking lame ass QB name is opposite us. Over a long enough period of time- which he has had- the issue becomes the scheme and all the excuses about injuries, lack of effective DE's, etc... become just that excuses. Gus Bradley is like the antithesis of Steichen- no creativity and very fucking conservative. We need a change!