2019 Draft - Interior DL
 

People seem interested, so let's do this.

edit: same caveat applies, I am compiling what I've consistently read from multiple seemingly-knowledgeable draft blogger types.

I've read people saying "I don't care where the pass rush comes from, DE or DT", and to an extent I agree. Look at Dante Fowler in LA, finally playing well next to Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh, and Michael Brockers. Excellent interior DL play frees up edge players to win their battles one-on-one against a RT or TE. And truly special DTs can seriously produce. With Donald, Chris Jones, JJ Watt, Deforest Buckner, Calais Campbell, Fletcher Cox, etc you are seeing a lot of sack production come from places other than the edges.

My only potential point against that is that we don't totally know what we have in Denico Autry and Tyquan Lewis. I was not initially a fan of Autry, but his production speaks for itself. He got a lot of sacks in the second half of the season (after perhaps getting healthy finally). And I've heard in interviews that the Colts are very high on Lewis as an interior rusher.

None of that would be enough for me personally to avoid DT in the 1st if the value was there. Just something that may factor in on draft day.

Quinnen Williams | DT | Alabama
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 289.
2018 Stats: 71 tackles, 19.5 TFL, 8 sacks

I actually did watch some of him vs. LSU and I can see why people have him going top 5ish. I don't think he is as dominant as Suh in college but he is stout vs. the run and has some very good pass rush moves. He was doubled a lot and still produced. There's a lot to say about him but the Colts have no shot.

Jeffery Simmons | DT | Mississippi State
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 301
2018 Stats: 63 tackles, 18 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 FF, 4 batted passes

Seems like a solid penetrating DT that will pressure the pocket but will not create a ton of sacks. Long player with an explosive first step, often wins the snap there rather than fighting through blocks with technique or strength. Seems to get into the backfield a lot but struggles to finish the tackle. Had an incident in 2016 where he hit a woman on video. I don't personally see what the hype is about but maybe it's an eye test thing.

Ed Oliver | DT | Houston
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 280
2018 Stats (8 games): 54 tackles, 14.5 TFL, 3 sacks

I don't totally get the hype with this guy but most draft people seem to love him. His play style might be Aaron Donald-ish but he's not as good. Donald is compact but very powerful, Oliver just seems undersized and fast but without the power. He went to Houston but never had more than 5.5 sacks. Lots of TFL and he showed great speed from the interior. I've read he is actually smaller than listed. I'm not convinced his game translates to the NFL that well. And he had a weird shouting/shoving match with his head coach in 2018 that looked pretty bad. If the draft dorks are right he will be picked long before we get a chance and I'm good w/that.

Christian Wilkins | DT | Clemson
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 312
2018 Stats: 51 tackles, 14 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 1 FF

Just from reading about him I don't know why he's not the #2 DT prospect in the draft. But no one has him that high. Great size, good flexibility despite shorter arms and squatty build, quick athlete in short areas, plays very hard with great effort, knows how to defeat blocks or blow through them, anchors well against the run. Has the athleticism to play DE (he spent time there in 2016) but the body and mentality to play inside. He was arguably the best player on arguably the best defense in college football. He also earned his BA and MA in 4 years at Clemson. Everything I read tells me he'd be a great pick at #26 if he lasts that long.

Dre'Mont Jones | DT | Ohio State
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 272-295???
2018 Stats: 43 tackles, 13 TFL, 8.5 sacks

Excellent athlete, good gap penetrator with a variety of pass rushing moves that he seems to know how to use. Plays like a DE playing DT. Struggles to anchor against the run and with double teams. Really good first step explosion but then he stands up once engaged, killing his own momentum. Maybe he should be a DE. There seem to be wild discrepancies about how much he actually weighs so pre-draft activities with weigh-ins will be important. His strengths seem to fit with what Eberflus wants to do with his non NT DL so I wouldn't be surprised if Jones is high on the board.

Jerry Tillery | DT | Notre Dame
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 304
2018 Stats: 28 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 7 sacks

With that size, 7 sacks, and ND hype, my first question is why is he ranked so low? Supposedly a high-effort player that can run a 4.8 40. He moved from noseguard to 3 tech this season and had his best year of football. Might be an eyeball test thing again but he seems like a pretty great prospect to me.

Gerald Willis III | DT | Miami
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 285
2018 Stats: 59 tackles, 18 TFL, 4 sacks

Might be a sleeper, seems like a very good 1 gap 3 tech prospect. Good penetrator, great first step suddenness. Needs some coaching, but still had a very productive year at a top-tier football school. He was kicked off the football team at Florida, then took 2017 off of football to deal with whatever his problems were. Reports from 2018 say he used that time well and was a much more mature, focused, hard-working player when he returned. He lacks some technique but between his natural talent and apparent maturation he seems like a pretty good 4-3 prospect already, with significant room to grow and improve.

Dexter Lawrence | DT, Clemson
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 350

I won't spend a ton of time on him. He's a big 2 gap NT. Maybe has better-than-expected athleticism but I don't see him having much of a role in this defense. He had 6.5 sacks as a freshman so maybe that is noteworthy.

Isaiah Buggs | DT | Alabama
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 295
2018 Stats: 52 tackles, 13.5 TFL, 9.5 sacks, 2 FF, 3 batted passes

Great stats were supposedly a result of Quinnen Williams drawing double teams while Buggs was usually only single-blocked. Not a great athlete and apparently does not play hard every down. But is pretty good when he does. I included him for his sack numbers but it sounds like he'll be more of a mid-round player.

Let me know who you think I missed, if anyone.

I’m really hoping Ballard finds another gem in this draft at 3 tech like he did with Leonard at LB

Seems like there are good options available, but as with EDGE, I wonder if a player at DT will be BPA at 26. A lot is going to depend on how the board shakes out. It's possible there could be 4 QBs taken before 26, which could push one or two of these premium guys down the board.

Though, another part of me thinks DT may be a position like CB in this defensive scheme. Since the Colts need a unique skill-set, they may get better value picking a player after the first 50 picks.

Tillery from ND is the guy I have studied the most and he looks like the real deal to me. I will love to see how he tests at the combine.

But what I really hope is that Ballard does enough good work in free agency that our top picks become "luxury" picks instead of need pick. Find DE, DT, CB and WR of starting quality in free agency and then every pick truely becomes BPA.


Walk Worthy,

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I watched the national championship game and did not see the "Christian Wilkins singlehandedly beat Alabama" hype. I felt like if that statement applied to anyone, it was Trayvon Mullen. Honestly, if I was ranking the Clemson DL guys, Wilkins is third on the list. He gets good gap penetration occasionally, but also gets pushed off his spot too often. Ferrell is the best of them and is just a nightmare off the edge, and Dexter Lawrence has nose size but also gets good gap penetration, at least as good as Wilkins, commands doubles, and gets his hands up and bats balls down in the passing game if he doesn't rush effectively.

I think Jones and Tillery are trait guys that fit what Eberflus likes to do, as you mention. He also likes his DTs lighter than the norm, so if Oliver is there, he might be the guy.

Dexter Lawrence is definitely one to look at

Not in this scheme

Good read, thanks FatDT

Thought of that too. Hard to separate for this D

FatDT, have you watched film on Oliver? Just curious where the "no power" assessment comes from. I just watched 4 games of 2018 Oliver followed by 2 games of 2013 Donald, and the biggest differences I noticed were that Donald wasn't doubled, doubled and chipped, or tripled nearly as often, Oliver was way more effective at batting passes down, and Donald had a more refined set of pass rush moves. Other than that, lots of double team splitting, lots of gap penetration, lots of pocket pushing and power from both players.

The same caveat from the other thread applies here (I will update the original post), I'm mostly going by what I've read and trying to apply it to the Colts scheme. It makes sense that he must have good play on tape given how highly he is thought of. It just seems strange that he'd have a lower level of competition to go against and still he didn't produce the way you'd expect. Maybe that's just him being doubled every down (because what other Houston defender do you really have to worry about?).

Watching the game tape, that's exactly what it seemed like. Every team they played doubled him on every down at a minimum. Several times, the entire interior OL's assignment was to block Ed Oliver. He's not as compact as Donald, but if he's playing at 275 and throwing people around the way the tape shows, that's rare power. If a good DL coach gets a hold of him and can teach him some pass rush moves beyond his violent hand punch, he could be special. I'd like to see what Eberflus and co. could do with him.

Kinda doubt Oliver is there at 26 :cool:

I would've doubted that myself, and he probably won't be, but apparently there's concern about his size among NFL teams and IMO there's a bit of prospect fatigue about him. It seems he's not a Top 5 lock as many think.

A lot of that will be taken care of with weigh-ins at the Combine and other pre-draft stuff. No hiding behind friendly school-published numbers then.

I am personally a big fan of TFL stats for college DL. A guy whose sack and TFL numbers are about the same is kind of a red flag. You want a player who was constantly in the backfield, even if it did not always mean a sack. TFL means he was in position to pressure the QB and the weird nature of college offense probably kept it from happening as much as it otherwise would.

That is what I find intriguing about Gerald Willis III. 18 TFLs is excellent production even though 4 sacks isn't anything to write home about. I see him projected as a 2nd rounder many places. I watched him vs. LSU and he beat his blockers a ton. Really good hand usage, power, and ball awareness. I think he lacks conditioning a little. And he stands up rather than keeping low and driving sometimes. Stuff that coaching and experience can help, and probably stuff that he would've worked through had he not taken a year off in 2017. When he was on he was hard to stop.

The concern that I've heard is that he hasn't been a productive pass rusher. That's a red flag for a guy with his size and athleticism. Also, he didn't get much better from freshman to junior year. Is there much growth there? Maybe he just needs good coaching, but it's enough cause for concern that he's sliding down relative to how we was talked about before the college season.

He definitely needs to learn some pass rush moves (maybe learn martial arts like Jared Allen did to learn how to handfight well?), but watch his tape and the reason for the lack of productivity becomes obvious very quickly. He gets doubled at a minimum on every play. I'd wager that if he ever got any one on one opportunities, his tape in those scenarios would look a lot like Aaron Donald's.

Simmons injured his knee while training - initial reports suspect it is a torn ACL. Will probably have to sit out his entire rookie season.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/sta...37763568705536

Would make a lot of sense for the Colts given the extra draft capital.

Pick 34 would be a nice future investment assuming the knee looks like it can be repaired easily enough. Doubt anyone will spend a 1 on a guy that can't play this year.

I could see one scenario in which he still goes in the first. You need to remember that First Round contracts have the fifth year team option so a team may want to draft him in the First Round to gain that extra year of contract control. One such team could be the Raiders. They currently have first round picks 4, 24, and 27. They could even trade down a few spots from 27 and pick up more draft capital. It looks like they may be playing next year in Oakland again....and they have shown that they don't care what type of product they put on the field for the near term - although they will want to field a talented team for their debut in Vegas.

I personally wouldn't use Pick 34. The Colts window is now and they need lots of help on defense right now. He probably won't play his rookie season. He will probably play his second season - but maybe not at 100%. FatDT's write-up indicated that he relies mostly on an explosive first step - that may be gone after the injury. It is worth monitoring to see how far down he slides and may be worth it later on, but hope the Colts look elsewhere at Pick 34.

In my initial write-up I barely mentioned the 2016 incident w/hitting a woman.

Here is a better description:
The video looks bad. It was 2-3 years ago, in 2016. Supposedly he was "defending his sister" but rapid-fire punches from a 300+ lb. man to a woman laying in the street, no that goes beyond defense. Worse than the Kareem Hunt video IMO.

Holder gave a radio interview today and one thing stuck out: he said he doesn’t think the front office is too concerned with WR. I’m starting to think Ballard will double dip at 26 and 34 with the two best EDGE & DT he can get. That fits with his MO based on last draft and his stated desire to improve the lines and pass rush. I would guess they grab a WR at some point in the middle rounds rather than use up a top pick at the position.

draft and free agency
 

Colts hit a grand slam with last years draft. I don't see lightning striking twice and they need to pursue some free agents. Need a pass rusher and a playmaker- whether its another RB or WR.

Which is what they should do. The DL needs improvements much more, and it's much more difficult to find good pass rushers than it is to find a good WR2 or WR3. And, provided they resign Inman, I'm not terribly concerned about the position considering WR2 could be made the fourth or fifth option on this team in any given game. Resigning Inman and bringing in a couple Day 3 guys to compete should be sufficient for the position. That said, I wouldn't be opposed to signing Tyrell Williams or Golden Tate.

Welcome, btw...

I'm not sure I want to spend draft or FA capital on a RB. I want to see Mack and our OL continue to improve and shore up EDGE and DL. We were 25th against the rush this year, 17th against the pass.

Yes those stats reflect 5 really crappy games, and in the last half of the season we were much better, but EDGE and DL are the only positions where we can address both these needs.

Meanwhile we are 6th best passing and 20th rushing. I think our rushing rank is pulled down by the fact that it took us 6 games to figure ourselves out. Once we did, I feel like we are probably in the top 15 rushing.

Golden Tate is intriguing.... he's on the wrong side of 30 though.

This. We need playmakers on offense. It doesn't matter where they play (except of course quarterback) Keep this offensive line dominant. Just one more exceptional player on offense, even with average guys at the other skill positions we have a great offense, certainly one good enough.

Stopgap signing. Get some mid round picks in to compete with Cain and Fountain and keep the best 5-6.

A talent like Simmons I would invest in. He could be a ten year player once he hits the field. Colts window just opened, you stay open by drafting the best talent you can.

Simmons could be the Colts Jaylon Smith or Myles Jack (talented defender with top 15 projection who suffers knee injury late in draft year and essentially needs a redshirt year). Those two were LBs, but both worked out pretty well for the team that drafted them. Still think Ballard will stay away because character concerns.

I say we trade Brissett, our 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick to Arizona in exchange for their #1 pick and we take Quinnen Williams.

Fair, he might not be willing to accept such a deal. Would be interesting to see how much chemistry he had with Ebron. There's rumors that he's looking for a long term $15M a year contract.

I've not followed the lions/eagles that closely, but that seems like far fatter deal than he might be worth, and the likelihood that he will still be in the League in 5 years is likely small. I like the idea of pickup up a veteran WR as a stop gap, but if we Have to pay him more than TY Hilton I doubt its a good culture fit.

https://www.profootballrumors.com/20...esque-contract

They're not going to give up on Rosen that quickly. I definitely approve of the idea, though, he's Aaron Donald but bigger and longer. I'd give up 26, 34, 58, and next year's 1 to get him, but I doubt they'd do even that deal.

Maybe, probably depends how he interviews and interviews with coaches/family. Like I said in the other thread I give a little more leeway with a kid in high school over say Hunt who is an adult and has much more security and resources. Even though Simmons case was worse.

You misspelled Inman. Not sure how autocorrect would make it into Fountain.

WR1: Hilton
WR2: Tate
WR3: Inman
WR4: Cain
WR5: Fountain/mid round pick/late round pick
WR6: Fountain/mid round pick/late round pick
WR7: Fountain/mid round pick/late round pick

WR6 may or may not be on the practice squad. Why is that difficult to understand?

You left Inman out of the equation. It is easy to guess that you thought he was not in the mix.

If you would give up that much you have no chance of being right. Ballard wouldn’t trade that for Donald right now and neither would I