2024 Colts Cap
 

$242.500m = 2024 NFL Salary Cap
$008.299m = 2023 Colts Unused Rollover
=========
$250.799m = 2024 Colts Salary Cap

$176.026m = Top 51 Colts Salaries
$001.790m = Spots 52 and 53 on the "in-season" cap
$006.134m = Maximum possible 16-man practice squad salary. (*NOTE)
$008.422m = Dead Money (Leonard accounts for $8.00m of it)
$005.000m = In-Season "Churn" space
=========
$197.372m = 2024 Colts Current Obligations

* NOTE: It will be lower than this because many of the members will not make the $21,300 weekly pay maximum but it will go down by no more than about $1.5m as they will make the $16,800 weekly pay minimum.

$053.427m = 2024 Colts Free Cap to sign new players or re-sign our own

Significant 2024 Colts Unrestricted Free Agents:

Starters:
WR Michael Pittman Jr
NT Grover Stewart
CB Kenny Moore
S Julian Blackmon
P Rigoberto Sanchez

Important Depth:
QB Gardner Minshew
RB Zack Moss
OG Danny Pinter
DE Tyquan Lewis
DT Taven Bryan

Ten Biggest Cap Savings if Cut:

$20.250m = DT Deforest Buckner
$12.375m = OC Ryan Kelly
$10.683m = OT Braden Smith
$05.920m = TE Mo Allie-Cox
$03.500m = LB E.J. Speed
$03.360m = LB Zaire Franklin
$03.010m = WR Ashton Dulin
$02.251m = DE Kwitty Paye
$01.735m = DE Samson Ebkukam
$01.500m = DE Dayo Odeyingbo

Current 2024 Players by Position (in rough depth chart order from left to right):

QB: Anthony Richardson, Sam Ehlinger
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Evan Hull, Tyler Goodson
WR: Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Ashton Dulin, DJ Montgomery, Tyler Cleveland, Ethan Fernes, Zavier Scott, Terrell Bynum
TE: Mo Alie-Cox, Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, Andrew Ogletree (?), Will Mallory, Eric Tomlinson, Jordan Murray
OT: Braden Smith, Bernhard Raimann, Blake Freeland, Jake Witt, Arlington Hambright, Lewis Kidd
OG: Quenton Nelson, Will Fries, Josh Sills
OC: Ryan Kelly, Wesley French

DT: DeForest Buckner, Eric Johnson, Adetomiwa Abedawore
DE: Samson Ebukam, Kwitty Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo, Titus Lee
LB: Zaire Franklin, E.J. Speed, Grant Stuard, Issiah Land, Austin Ajieke, Liam Anderson
Saf: Rodney Thomas, Nick Cross, Daniel Scott, Kendell Brooks, Marcel Dabo, Michael Tutsie
CB: Julius Brents, Dallis Flowers, Jaylon Jones, Chris Lammons, Ameer Speed

LS: Luke Rhodes
PK: Matt Gay
P:

Have at it Freaks. What is YOUR plan for the off-seaons on how the Colts become a better team?

Correct me if I am wrong,nbut doesn't the salary cap only include the top 51 players, so practice squad, churn and 52/53 players do not affect it?

I was getting ready to ask... OTC and Spotrac have us at $63.9m and $62.3m respectively. Does ^^ this explain the discrepancy?

Iron's numbers have always been good, so I'm just curious what those sites aren't accounting for.

o


When I first read the thread title, I though that Ironshaft was giving away (or selling) a Colts hat.




https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/RioAA...JmX/s-l300.jpg

o

To address the topic, I do not see any way we don't try to re-sign the 5 you listed as starters. Pittman and Grover will eat up a ton of the cap space. I think we try to sign the other three at market rate for starters at their level of performance, which eats up a good portion of it, as well. I think Pitt gets $20M for this cap year, and Grover is probably around $15M. Kenny, Blackman and Sanchez will add up to about $25M. That is $60M for all 5, and you have us with $53M available. I guess Mo-Alie gets cut, and we add no additional free agents.

I had seen where we had over $70 M before we signed a bunch of nobodies to future tenders. I really don't know this stuff like Iron does.

So, the differences is between the "pre-season" cap calculations and the "in-season" cap calculations.

Pre-season, you do only count the top 51 cap hits, no practice squad cap hit nor account for any "churn" space when a player gets injured and you need to start paying another player to come up from the practice squad.

Almost all the "cap" sites out there are quoting the pre-season numbers. If I were to do so, I would say we have $66.350m in free cap space.

However, I think to do so misses out on the point that there is NO WAY that the team's cap experts do not account for all the things they know they will have to pay once we get in-season.

It is not like they are going to say "hey, look! We have $66.350m to spend this off-season, YOLO!!!" and then get to the end of pre-season and say "oh, crud, we overspent, we need to cut some cap to be legal."

The number I am sure that they have an eye on before the beginning of re-signing their own free agents and trying to attract others is the number where it accounts for ALL their known expenditures, not just the ones they say count during "pre-season." I think using that number is more accurate so....that is why I use it.

So, that, in a nutshell, is why the numbers are different.

That makes sense. I really didn't know churn space mattered that much, seeing that the contracts typically cancel out another player's salary.

Thanks Ironshaft. Unfortunately it looks like there won't be much room after we re-sign our own. Maybe we will restructure and extend some guys to open up some more cap room.

Of our UFA starters definitely need to keep MPJ and Grover. It'd be nice to keep both Moore and Blackmon, but I can see where it might come down to picking between the 2 of them. Sanchez was already the 7th highest paid punter, so hopefully we can re-sign him for about the same amount.

Of our depth guys listed I'd like to see us keep Minshew if we can get him back for reasonable backup QB money as well as Lewis. Obviously would like to see us keep Moss as well, but I'm guessing he'll want to go someplace where he can potentially start. No need to keep either Pinter or Bryan.

no you didn't

I say Kenny, Grover, and maybe Tyquan get resigned

Pittman??

You are missing the 4 Exclusive Rights Free Agents.

They have all received one year contract extensions.

They are:

S Trevor Denbow
LB Segun Olubi
LB Cameron McGrone
CB Darrell Baker Jr.


Also, I am fairly certain that the Colts have always designated Zavier Scott as a RB although I think he played a few different positions in college.

Idk I’m concerned about him getting resigned, he was franks guys not Shane’s so I don’t know how much Shane values him in that offense. Might want someone more explosive

To me, Pittman, Moore and Blackman are NEED TO BE SIGNED. Grover Stewart should be signed, but he's over 30 and his best years may be behind him, so he is a want, not a need.

As for cuts, a serious look at the future health of Kelly is warranted, that's a lot of money if he can only play half a season again. I'd also consider a serious look at MAC. He's talented, but inconsistent. And Dulin???

But if a player goes to IR, they still get their full season salary and still has the associated cap hit.

So, you need new money in order to bring a player up from the practice squad to the active roster.

A rookie on the practice squad for the full season will make $302,400 for the 18-week season.

Minimum salary for a rookie on the active roster is $795,000 in 2024.

That additional money has to be accounted for because injuries will happen.

Great catch! I did indeed miss them.

Separate discussion, I know. But Baker should never wear a Colts uniform again.

So, are you saying that every player counts, even player 52/53, and practice squad players?

With how the current roster is constructed losing MPJ would be a devastating blow to the team. If we were drafting in the top 10 and able to replace him with either Nabers or Odunze it might be worth the risk to let him walk. But we're not, so we really need to do everything we can to re-sign MPJ since at best we're looking at one of the 2nd tier WRs backfilling him.

First, thank you Ironshaft for doing this, takes a lot of time and effort to put things like this together. Regarding your question, let's have at. If I may borrow:

Current 2024 Players by Position:

QB: Anthony Richardson, Sam Ehlinger
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Evan Hull, Tyler Goodson
WR: Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Ashton Dulin, DJ Montgomery, Tyler Cleveland, Ethan Fernes, Zavier Scott, Terrell Bynum
TE: Mo Alie-Cox, Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, Andrew Ogletree, Will Mallory, Eric Tomlinson, Jordan Murray
OT: Braden Smith, Bernhard Raimann, Blake Freeland, Jake Witt, Arlington Hambright, Lewis Kidd
OG: Quenton Nelson, Will Fries, Josh Sills
OC: Ryan Kelly, Wesley French

DT: DeForest Buckner, Eric Johnson, Adetomiwa Abedawore
DE: Samson Ebukam, Kwitty Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo, Titus Lee
LB: Zaire Franklin, E.J. Speed, Segun Olubi, Grant Stuard, Cameron McGrone, Isaiah Land, Austin Ajieke, Liam Anderson
Saf: Rodney Thomas, Nick Cross, Daniel Scott, Trevor Denbow, Kendell Brooks, Marcel Dabo, Michael Tutsie
CB: Julius Brents, Dallis Flowers, Jaylon Jones, Darrell Baker Jr., Chris Lammons, Ameer Speed

LS: Luke Rhodes
PK: Matt Gay
P:

First, let's assess. The roster is thin at RB, WR, OG, DT, DE, S, CB, and P. I feel that there are internal solutions at WR, DT, S, CB, and P by resigning our impending Free Agents. Let's look at that category, as it will be the first phase of the offseason:

Phase 1: Retention of 2024 Team Free Agents

Significant 2024 Colts Unrestricted Free Agents:

Starters:
WR Michael Pittman Jr
NT Grover Stewart
CB Kenny Moore
S Julian Blackmon
P Rigoberto Sanchez

Important Depth:
QB Gardner Minshew
RB Zack Moss
OG Danny Pinter
DE Tyquan Lewis
DT Taven Bryan

First, we need to address the elephant in the room. Michael Pittman Jr. is a #1 WR, and a top 15 WR in the NFL, he needs to be retained and he needs to be paid as such. I would use the franchise tag to ensure another team can't do it. While this would make his cap hit $21.665 million, I would aim to use the tag to extend him. I think the following deal would get the job done:

5 year $115 million extension with $65 million in guarantees
Year 1: $14 million salary (fully guaranteed), $5 million pro rated signing bonus, $19 million cap hit
Year 2: $16 million salary (fully guaranteed), $5 million pro rated signing bonus, $21 million cap hit
Year 3: $16 million salary, $5 million roster bonus, $5 million pro rated signing bonus, $26 million cap hit
Year 4: $16 million salary, $5 million roster bonus, $5 million pro rated signing bonus, $26 million cap hit
Year 5: $18 million salary, $5 million pro rated signing bonus, $23 million cap hit

I based this deal on the A.J. Brown deal, adding a year while taking a bit off the AAV. This allows the Colts to retain a key target for their young QB without eating nearly half of their cap space this year.

Remaining usable cap space: $34.427 million

Next, I think it's crucial to bring back Grover Stewart. He's key to the team's run defense, and his absence was felt in the 6 games he missed. I think the below is in line with the market while giving him a small raise:

3 year $33 million extension with $18 million in guarantees
Year 1: $6 million salary (fully guaranteed), $3 million pro rated signing bonus, $9 million cap hit
Year 2: $8 million salary, $3 million pro rated signing bonus, $11 million cap hit
Year 3: $7 million salary, $3 million roster bonus, $3 million pro rated signing bonus, $13 million cap hit

This is in line with last year's market, with a small increase from his previous contract that also reflects a small increase to the market due to increased cap space. Hopefully the Colts will search for and find their next NT in the first two years of the contract.

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $25.427 million

Next up, Kenny Moore II, who had a lot of ups and downs on his last contract, but is basically the only slot CB on the team. I think the following would be a fair deal:

3 year $27 million extension with $15 million in guarantees
Year 1: $4 million salary (fully guaranteed), $3 million pro rated signing bonus, $7 million cap hit
Year 2: $6 million salary, $3 million pro rated signing bonus, $9 million cap hit
Year 3: $6 million salary, $2 million roster bonus, $3 million pro rated signing bonus, $11 million cap hit

The AAV is slightly higher than the Byron Murphy deal from last year with an extra year as well. It would be ideal to find a good slot defender in the first two years of this contract.

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $18.427 million

Up next, Julian Blackmon, who I believe was a high quality starter for the defense, and his absence may have cost the Colts a playoff spot this year. Here's what I think would work:

4 year $32 million extension with $16 million in guarantees
Year 1: $4 million salary (fully guaranteed), $2 million pro rated signing bonus, $6 million cap hit
Year 2: $6 million salary ($2 million guaranteed), $2 million pro rated signing bonus, $8 million cap hit
Year 3: $6 million salary, $2 million pro rated signing bonus, $8 million cap hit
Year 4: $6 million salary, $2 million roster bonus, $2 million pro rated signing bonus, $10 million cap hit

This is a higher AAV than any safety other than Jessie Bates got in free agency last year. It also keeps a solid starter on the roster for at least the next 3 seasons.

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $12.427 million

Next is Rigo. I think he's worth near top end of the Punter market money, as follows:

4 year $12 million extension with $6 million in guarantees
Year 1: $1 million salary (fully guaranteed), $1 million pro rated signing bonus, $2 million cap hit
Year 2: $2 million salary, $1 million pro rated signing bonus, $3 million cap hit
Year 3: $2 million salary, $1 million pro rated signing bonus, $3 million cap hit
Year 4: $2 million salary, $1 million roster bonus, $1 million pro rated signing bonus, $4 million cap hit

Michael Dickson has the richest punter contract in NFL history and it has just over $3.6 million AAV. I think that makes the above a fair deal.

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $10.427 million

Finally, I think the Colts could do worse for a backup QB than Gardner Minshew, and I think he deserves to be rewarded for above average play for a backup QB. I think the following is more than fair:

2 year $10 million extension with $5 million in guarantees
Year 1: $1 million salary (fully guaranteed), $2 million pro rated signing bonus, $3 million cap hit
Year 2: $5 million salary, $2 million pro rated signing bonus, $7 million cap hit

This is effectively a 1/$5 deal with a second 1/$5 option. Leaving that much unguaranteed salary in year 2 also gives the Colts the option to extend the deal for another year or 2 while bringing the cap hit down should they choose to keep him longer. This is pretty close to top end of the backup market, and I don't think he'd find more elsewhere.

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $7.427 million

I also liked Ronnie Harrison Jr. as a LB, and would be willing to bring him back on a veteran minimum contract of $1.08 million for 1 year.

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $6.347 million

Why I chose not to retain the other listed free agents: Zack Moss is going to get high end RB2/low end RB1 money on the market, the Colts can't afford to pay him that. Danny Pinter only ever played quality minutes for the Colts at Center and had to be replaced at Guard mid-season when he was penciled in by the coaching staff as the starter at the position. When Pinter lost the backup OC job to Wesley French, he lost all value IMO. Tyquan Lewis and Taven Bryan are good rotational players that will likely want too much money to come back in the same roles. In Lewis's case, I plan to massively upgrade the DE position, while in Bryan's case, my hope would be that Adebawore could step into his role.

After retaining free agents, the roster is as follows (bold indicates an added player):

QB: Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew, Sam Ehlinger
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Evan Hull, Tyler Goodson
WR: Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Ashton Dulin, DJ Montgomery, Tyler Cleveland, Ethan Fernes, Zavier Scott, Terrell Bynum
TE: Mo Alie-Cox, Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, Andrew Ogletree, Will Mallory, Eric Tomlinson, Jordan Murray
OT: Braden Smith, Bernhard Raimann, Blake Freeland, Jake Witt, Arlington Hambright, Lewis Kidd
OG: Quenton Nelson, Will Fries, Josh Sills
OC: Ryan Kelly, Wesley French

DT: DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Eric Johnson, Adetomiwa Abedawore
DE: Samson Ebukam, Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo, Titus Lee
LB: Zaire Franklin, E.J. Speed, Ronnie Harrison Jr., Segun Olubi, Grant Stuard, Cameron McGrone, Isaiah Land, Austin Ajieke, Liam Anderson
Saf: Julian Blackmon, Rodney Thomas, Nick Cross, Daniel Scott, Trevor Denbow, Kendell Brooks, Marcel Dabo, Michael Tutsie
CB: Julius Brents, Kenny Moore II, Dallis Flowers, Jaylon Jones, Darrell Baker Jr., Chris Lammons, Ameer Speed

LS: Luke Rhodes
PK: Matt Gay
P: Rigoberto Sanchez

Next, we need to create some cap space. I plan to make a splash Free Agency signing, so just under $6.4 million will not be enough. Looking at the list borrowed from above:

Phase 2: Cap Management and External Free Agency

Ten Biggest Cap Savings if Cut:

$20.250m = DT Deforest Buckner
$12.375m = OC Ryan Kelly
$10.683m = OT Braden Smith
$05.920m = TE Mo Allie-Cox
$03.500m = LB E.J. Speed
$03.360m = LB Zaire Franklin
$03.010m = WR Ashton Dulin
$02.251m = DE Kwitty Paye
$01.735m = DE Samson Ebkukam
$01.500m = DE Dayo Odeyingbo

I see one obvious cap casualty, and that is Mo Alie-Cox. I am cutting him for the cap savings.

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $12.267 million

This is still not enough space to sign the free agent I am looking to sign, so while I'm not cutting anyone else, there are 3 very obvious candidates for restructure: DeForest Buckner, Ryan Kelly, and Braden Smith. Because Buckner is an elite player, I want to keep him as a fixture in the Colts defense for the next several seasons, I don't want to deal with potentially having to tag him next year, and he probably can provide all of the cap savings I need in one restructure, I'm looking at him first.

3 year, $72 million deal with $48 million in guarantees
Year 1 (2024): $2 million salary (fully guaranteed), $10 million pro rated signing bonus, $12 million cap hit
Year 2 (2025): $15 million salary ($12 million guaranteed), $10 million pro rated signing bonus, $25 million cap hit
Year 3 (2026): $21 million salary, $4 million roster bonus, $10 million pro rated signing bonus, $35 million cap hit

This puts nearly $10 million more in Buckner's pocket this year while saving $10.75 million in cap space. Obviously, Year 3 will necessitate a restructure or cut, hopefully restructure.

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $23.017 million

With my newly acquired cap space, I am going to purchase the Colts the elite pass rusher they have been lacking since Robert Mathis left the team:

Sign DE Danielle Hunter
4 year $100 million deal with $60 million in guarantees
Year 1: $15 million salary (fully guaranteed), $6 million pro rated signing bonus, $21 million cap hit
Year 2: $15 million salary (fully guaranteed), $6 million pro rated signing bonus, $21 million cap hit
Year 3: $20 million salary, $6 million pro rated signing bonus, $26 million cap hit
Year 4: $20 million salary, $6 million roster bonus, $6 million pro rated signing bonus, $32 million cap hit

This is more or less a 2 year $54 million deal that the Colts can choose to jettison after Year 3 if he is not performing or restructure if he is. Hunter has been an elite pass rusher for years and has come back strong from a 2021 injury, posting 27 sacks over the last 2 seasons with a league leading 23 TFL in 2023. Putting Hunter and Buckner on the same defensive line takes the unit from good to elite. I feel this move also fits with Ballard's history, as DE is the position he's addressed most often and best in free agency. He's never made a splash like this, but this is intended to be a win now move that signals confidence in the current team is ready to take the step into contention.

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $2.017 million

With that, the pre-draft roster is set. Based on the above moves, I would view the Colts draft needs as follows:

Phase 3: 2024 NFL Draft

Team Needs Pre-2024 NFL Draft
1. CB (Slot)*
2. DE (Elite Pass Rusher)*
3. TE
4. RB
5. DT (depth/future starter)
6. OC (depth/future starter)
7. OG (depth)
8. QB (backup more similar to Richardson)

*NOTE: If not addressed in Free Agency, DE (Elite Pass Rusher) becomes the team's top need.

Colts picks in 2024 NFL draft:**
Round 1 Pick 15
Round 2 Pick 46
Round 3 Pick 82
Round 4 Pick 118
Round 5 Pick 150
Round 6 Pick 193
Round 7 Pick 232

**This is the most accurate information I can find as of the time of making this post. I will update as more accurate information becomes available.

Round 1 Pick 15: DE Laiatu Latu UCLA
With a Top 15 pick, I believe the focus should be on getting an elite player to add to your team. The words "Game Wrecker" come to mind when you put on Latu's film. Latu has excellent burst off the edge and a variety of pass rush moves that allow him to bend the edge on tackles. He is often doubled, but regularly defeats double teams and creates pressure on the QB. Adding a pass rusher of his caliber to what is now an already stacked DL will force opposing offenses to get the ball out quickly.
Alternate Selections: DE Jared Verse, WR Malik Nabers, TE Brock Bowers, CB Terrion Arnold

Round 2 Pick 46: CB T.J. Tampa Iowa State
The Colts front office has shown a penchant recently for liking their CBs tall, long, fast, athletic, good in zone, and physical. T.J. Tampa checks all of those boxes and will provide another option at both the slot and boundary CB positions.
Alternate Selections: DT Kris Jenkins, TE Ja'Tavion Sanders, DE Adisa Isaac, DE Jonah Elliss, WR Malachi Corley

Round 3 Pick 82: CB Khyree Jackson Oregon
Doubling up at CB on Day 2, Jackson is another CB that fits the profile of what the Colts seem to be looking for at the position. Big, physical, and fast, Jackson primarily provides more competition for the starting boundary CB position. With this selection, the Colts have Julian Brents, Jaylon Jones, T.J. Tampa, and Khyree Jackson from which to pull two starting boundary CBs.
Alternate Selections: DT Maason Smith, LB Payton Wilson, OG Christian Haynes

Round 4 Pick 118: S Cole Bishop Utah
Another big, fast DB, Bishop is not as long as the Colts typically like, but makes up for it with his speed and explosiveness. Bishop also gives Gus Bradley a Kam Chancellor type enforcer option, or could bulk up and become a LB. The versatility and special teams value are the primary reasons for the pick here.
Alternate Selections: DE Mohamed Kamara, WR Javon Baker

Round 5 Pick 150: DT Khristian Boyd Northern Iowa
Rarely does a 320 pound DT move the way Boyd can move on film. He has tape of chasedown tackles on quite a few RBs. He also holds up very well against a double team and provides some pass rush value as demonstrated in his very good Shrine Bowl week. The Colts could have him lose weight and become a developmental 3 tech, but with Adebawore already on the roster, I think the smart play is to groom Boyd to eventually take over for 30 year old Grover Stewart.

Round 6 Pick 193: RB Issac Guerendo Louisville
Jonathan Taylor's collegiate backup becomes Jonathan Taylor's NFL backup. Guerendo possesses a great blend of size, speed, and power, and has demonstrated value as both a receiver and blocker in limited playing time. Guerendo will have tremendous upside as a RB2 who can provide RB1 quality snaps on a limited basis.

Round 7 Pick 232: OG Karsen Barnhart Michigan
This selection is about one thing: positional versatility. Barnhart instantly slots in as the top backup OG, and could easily challenge Will Fries for the starting RG position, but in addition, Barnhart has experience at all 5 OL positions in college. He may not be used or listed at center or tackle, but in an emergency, he could play there, though maybe not super effectively at the NFL level. Having versatile backups is a way to more easily survive having less than 10 OL on your roster.

2024 Preseason Roster (bold indicates added player)

QB: Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew, Sam Ehlinger
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Issac Guerendo, Evan Hull, Tyler Goodson
WR: Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Ashton Dulin, DJ Montgomery, Tyler Cleveland, Ethan Fernes, Zavier Scott, Terrell Bynum
TE: Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, Andrew Ogletree, Will Mallory, Eric Tomlinson, Jordan Murray
OT: Braden Smith, Bernhard Raimann, Blake Freeland, Jake Witt, Arlington Hambright, Lewis Kidd
OG: Quenton Nelson, Will Fries, Karsen Barnhart, Josh Sills
OC: Ryan Kelly, Wesley French

DT: DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Eric Johnson, Adetomiwa Abedawore
DE: Danielle Hunter, Laiatu Latu, Samson Ebukam, Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo, Titus Lee
LB: Zaire Franklin, E.J. Speed, Ronnie Harrison Jr., Segun Olubi, Grant Stuard, Cameron McGrone, Isaiah Land, Austin Ajieke, Liam Anderson
Saf: Julian Blackmon, Rodney Thomas, Nick Cross, Cole Bishop, Daniel Scott, Trevor Denbow, Kendell Brooks, Marcel Dabo, Michael Tutsie
CB: Julius Brents, Kenny Moore II, T.J. Tampa, Dallis Flowers, Jaylon Jones, Khyree Jackson, Darrell Baker Jr., Chris Lammons, Ameer Speed

LS: Luke Rhodes
PK: Matt Gay
P: Rigoberto Sanchez

UPDATE: The actual NFL cap increased to $255.4 million, while an estimate of $242.5 million was used above, resulting in an extra $12.9 million of cap space. Per Over The Cap, only $4.205 million of additional cap space is needed to sign our rookies, leaving:

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $10.713 million

I like your approach Dam, however there is no way in hell we can roll with those same guys at CB next year. So if you’re signing Hunter you gotta go CB with that first pick.

I want Pittman back for sure just don’t know if Shane would feel like he’s worth 100 million when you could use that money on chase young or Josh Allen

My approach would be to draft more CBs, especially slot defender types. I'd likely use the pick at 46 on one. Also, this team is crazy if they let MPJ walk, he's a top 15 WR in the NFL, and that contract will look reasonable in years 3, 4, and 5.

In season, yes. Every player counts.

Pre-season, no. Only the top 51 cap hits count.

The NFL does this so that teams have more flexibility to potentially bring in journeyman free agents during the 90-man phase of the season in order to find the best players. Obviously, that only counts during pre-season and once you do the cut down to the 53 man roster, all the rest of the expenses kick in (spots 52 and 53 and practice squad projections).

I like just about everything you posted Dam. Couple of comments to add to the discussion:

- Hunter might not be available as I would think Minny will do all they can to re-sign him. They don't have a ton of cap space, but they do have some at ~$26M. Per OTC Hunter will count ~$15M in dead cap space when his contract voids in March, which is included in the Vikes' current cap number. I'm not 100% sure, but I believe that goes away if he signs an extension before his contract voids (I'm sure Ironshaft can clarify). So this gives them extra incentive to get a deal done before FA begins. On a side note Kirk Cousins is a similar situation only he's ~$28.5M in dead cap space.

- Latu has a scary medical history. Not saying that this should exclude us from drafting him; just something that could factor into the decision. I'm sure it'll be a big talking point in the lead up to the draft.

- If we can sign Lewis to a similar deal to his '23 contract ($2.6M cap hit) then I'd like to see him re-signed. If he can get more elsewhere then agree that it's best to let him go.

- As far as I can tell Ironshaft didn't include the draft class in his base cap number, so under your plan you'd have to make a little bit of room for the draft class. Only ~$1M based on '23 cap hits for the draft slots where we're picking and that our bottom end guys are at $900K cap hits.

- This would put us right up against the cap, which we all know Ballard isn't going to be comfortable doing :cool:

So I am guessing on that, but of all the pass rushers that have impending Free Agency, Hunter's situation seems like the best combination of high end talent and likely to get to the free agent market, because of Cousins. Josh Allen and Brian Burns are likely to be franchised, and you're taking a much bigger risk if you go after Chase Young, Josh Uche, or Za'Darius Smith. Hunter is a proven elite pass rusher, and because the Vikings have the Cousins situation to deal with, they likely won't have the franchise tag at their disposal. If he gets to free agency, the Colts should be offering him a contract.

The medical history is why I think he'll be there at 15. I don't see how he wouldn't be EDGE1 and a top 5 pick without it. In gathering information on him, two players came to mind. The film reminds me of Myles Garrett, though I don't necessarily think he'll reach those heights because he's two years older coming out. The medical situation reminds me of Jaelan Phillips, who fell to 18 because of his medical status (both also wore 15 at UCLA at different points, coincedentally). Phillips's tape was not as good as Latu's, though. Even with the medical history, the tape is so good I like Latu over Verse, and Verse is very reminiscent of Brian Burns with no medical history.

If the Colts are addressing DE in the manner I did above, there's no room for Lewis on the team. Odeyingbo and Latu take his interior snaps, and Hunter, Paye, and Ebukam take his edge snaps. That said, under different circumstances I wouldn't be opposed to bringing both Lewis and Taven Bryan back.

Shit, I didn't think to check that, Ironshaft usually does include the draft pool in his numbers. I'll add a Kelly restructure, it's something I think should happen anyway.

I'm not as optimistic as you are that Hunter will be available, but agree he's elite, potentially available, and less risky than some of the others you list. I would definitely be disappointed if he is available and we don't at least make a serious run at signing him.

That's fair. TBH I didn't watch any of UCLA this year, but from his stats and write ups I've read Latu is really good. Will be interested to see how his medical history plays out in the predraft process. With how Phillips and Sweat have worked out ok I'm thinking teams might be less scared off.


Good point on the snaps, but if we can sign Lewis to a similar deal that he played on this year then it'd be worth bringing him in IMO. He was only guaranteed $500K, so very minimal cap impact if he doesn't make the team. Of course he stayed healthy and produced a bit, so his market is probably higher.

Speaking of Dayo, it might make sense to extend him now if we can make room and he's willing to do it. If he continues to improve next year then he's probably going to get pretty pricey.


It's only ~$1M, so we could probably convert someone's salary to a bonus to free up the space. Not that Kelly hasn't earned an extension. He definitely had a really good bounce back year.

Looks like we have $13M additional cap dollars, but so do all the other teams. I guess we can now re-sign our own quality players AND add a good veteran or two.

Dam, all your contracts are massively backloaded, that seems worrying if the cap doesn’t increase accordingly. It would give a 2 year window to win and then you have to start releasing, trading or restructuring these guys.

Where is Trey Sermon?

It's a common tactic used in the NFL, typically the final year of those deals is either restructured, as I did with the Buckner deal, or cut, dependent on if the player is still playing up to the contract. Plus, the cap, with very few exceptions, tends to go up 5-10% every year, and this year went up by nearly 15%. What I did is not worrisome contract construction, because I didn't use void years or other silly cap tricks to create massively low first year cap hits.

Coincidentally, I will likely be updating this after the combine next week.

Sermon's an RFA. Would think we could re-sign at or near the 4 year vet minimum.

Yes it’s common but so far has not been consistent with how Ballard structures contracts.

Quoting this to bump it because I did the update today. Now featuring full 7 Round mock draft.

Nice job on the roster update. I won't critique the draft, other than I like the 1st round pick.

A couple of things on the roster though.

Zavier Scott is working out as a RB not a WR (even though he was a WR at Maine).

At DE, Ballard has spoken highly of Jake Martin and Isaiah Land, who both received playing time this past season, while Titus Leo was injured. Land in particular should be in the mix at DE.

All of your individual moves and picks make sense Dam, but I will be very surprised and disappointed if we stand pat on O. AR needs more weapons in the passing game, and Ballard knows this. At least per his comments he does.

I added a RB. :D

But in all seriousness, that was more of a "what I would do" offseason than a "what I expect the Colts to do" offseason. I also didn't allow myself trades for this because there's no one to negotiate against, but based on the recent press conferences, I believe the Colts want to trade back and draft Brian Thomas Jr. or Adonai Mitchell. The Eagles would be the perfect trade partner, with 22 and 53 to offer in a trade down. I could also see GB moving up with 25 and 58.

Yeah, saw your other post on this. I think this would be a good move assuming we could still draft either Thomas or Mitchell and that Bowers or any of the other elite prospects drop to us.

Some times it matters sometimes it means nothing but as of right now the Colts are the slight favorites to draft Bowers

With a lot of the re-signings having taken place etc, where are we at with the Cap space now? Do we have enough money to actually sign Blackmon and Sneed without restructuring existing contracts?