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-   -   Luck on pace for 46 TDs this season (http://www.coltfreaks.com/forum/showthread.php?t=57207)

DrSpaceman 10-28-2018 07:51 PM

Luck on pace for 46 TDs this season
 
Its truly remarkable when you consider :

This would be his second 40 TD season of his career, despite his injury struggles

He had not played in over a year before the season and many were debating if he could even play again last year

The people he has been throwing to this year have been TY Hilton part of the time, a decent TE red zone target in Eric Ebron and then a whole bunch of guys most have never really heard before this year.

There was virtually no run game the first 2/3 of the season

Its a new offensive system with a rookie head coach calling plays

OL has come together lately but was a mess to start the season with injuries

No need to mention the drops so far this year


Contrast that to when manning threw 49 TDs (would have been more) :

Basically three other HOFers on the offense in Wayne, Harrison and Edge, plus had a great 3rd WR in Stokely and a great TE in Dallas Clark. I don't think there is any comparison between the skill position players

Those guys rarely dropped passes

The offensive system had been in place for man years and Manning was perfecting it at the time

He had a center in Saturday and a left tackle in Tarik Glenn that were veterans and he had worked with for years.

The run game had Edge, as mentioned was really solid at the time, play action was huge for that Colts team.

Manning was still healthy, had never had any serious injuries, at least to his arm/neck at the time (I believe he had the jaw injury early on he played threw)


Dungy had already been in place for 3 or 4 years at the time.


To that point in his career Manning had never thrown more than 33 TDs in a season. In fact that was his only 30+ TD season up to that time.

Now Manning had an amazing 9.9% TD pct throwing rate that year and Luck is only at 6.4% this year, but its still amazing what he has done.

YDFL Commish 10-28-2018 08:14 PM

Manning also had Marcus Pollard that year. An embarrassment of riches it was.

Indiana V2 10-28-2018 08:29 PM

Luck is playing at a whole different level, and it's scary to think that the offense is likely only going to get better.

omahacolt 10-28-2018 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YDFL Commish (Post 88797)
Manning also had Marcus Pollard that year. An embarrassment of riches it was.

No he didnt

VeveJones007 10-28-2018 08:38 PM

Didn’t have a ton of umpf on some throws today, but he was so accurate that it didn’t matter in the end. His throws are reminding me a lot of Brees so far this season.

Luck4Reich 10-28-2018 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by omahacolt (Post 88801)
No he didnt

Actually he did..49 was 2004 and Pollard caught 6 TDS

The year Pollard ran his mouth in the playoffs too I believe?

Luck4Reich 10-28-2018 09:00 PM

Also interesting that James Mungro was the only RB to have receiving TD’s that year. Edge and Rhodes didn’t have any. 37 of those 49 TDS were spread around to Wayne, Harrison and Stokley if I am looking at it right.

YDFL Commish 10-28-2018 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by omahacolt (Post 88801)
No he didnt

Yes he did.

Luck4Reich 10-28-2018 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indiana V2 (Post 88800)
Luck is playing at a whole different level, and it's scary to think that the offense is likely only going to get better.

Imagine if he gets some WR weapons?

omahacolt 10-28-2018 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuck4Chuck (Post 88819)
Actually he did..49 was 2004 and Pollard caught 6 TDS

The year Pollard ran his mouth in the playoffs too I believe?

I stand corrected. I thought he was gone after the 03 season. My apologies

JAFF 10-28-2018 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuck4Chuck (Post 88820)
Also interesting that James Mungro was the only RB to have receiving TD’s that year. Edge and Rhodes didn’t have any. 37 of those 49 TDS were spread around to Wayne, Harrison and Stokley if I am looking at it right.

Wasnt that the pass manning threw left handed?

Luck4Reich 10-28-2018 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAFF (Post 88831)
Wasnt that the pass manning threw left handed?

Maybe, I need google to help my memory these days lol

YDFL Commish 10-28-2018 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAFF (Post 88831)
Wasnt that the pass manning threw left handed?

It was a shovel pass. Don't remember which hand though.

JAFF 10-28-2018 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YDFL Commish (Post 88833)
It was a shovel pass. Don't remember which hand though.

Pretty sure it was left. He mentioned his HS coach told him it was good to be “amphibious”.

WaynesWorld87 10-28-2018 10:17 PM

I'm taking what a lot of QBs do this season statistically with a grain of salt. We seem to be at the peak of the "steroids" era of the NFL. So many QBs league wide are putting up numbers that would been league leading-ish 15+ years ago.

However, this is the first season in Luck's career where I thought he looked truly elite. Not that he wasn't elite or borderline elite in past seasons, but this year something just looks and feels different. His accuracy and command of the game seem to be at a whole new level. Which, when you consider the fact that we're 3-5, may seem crazy.

I guess, the best way I can think of to put it, is this is the first year in Luck's career where I felt roughly as confident in his ability win us a game single-handily. And he's doing it with weapons that pale in comparison to what Manning had in his best seasons.

Puck 10-28-2018 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WaynesWorld87 (Post 88849)
I'm taking what a lot of QBs do this season statistically with a grain of salt. We seem to be at the peak of the "steroids" era of the NFL. So many QBs league wide are putting up numbers that would been league leading-ish 15+ years ago.

However, this is the first season in Luck's career where I thought he looked truly elite. Not that he wasn't elite or borderline elite in past seasons, but this year something just looks and feels different. His accuracy and command of the game seem to be at a whole new level. Which, when you consider the fact that we're 3-5, may seem crazy.

I guess, the best way I can think of to put it, is this is the first year in Luck's career where I felt roughly as confident in his ability win us a game single-handily. And he's doing it with weapons that pale in comparison to what Manning had in his best seasons.

Agree. And not to beat a dead horse but isn't it great to see Luck in an actual scheme that is effecting everyone and protects him and the same time?

Frank Reich sigle handily replaced Pags and Chud by himself. It's hard to believe that our new head coach is also the best coordinator the team has had in the last 6 yrs. The only one close was BA but its not close. I realize that Frank has an OC but this team has the Reich signature all over it... well on offense it does....

omahacolt 10-28-2018 10:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Puck (Post 88860)
Agree. And not to beat a dead horse but isn't it great to see Luck in an actual scheme that is effecting everyone and protects him and the same time?

Frank Reich sigle handily replaced Pags and Chud by himself. It's hard to believe that our new head coach is also the best coordinator the team has had in the last 6 yrs. The only one close was BA but its not close. I realize that Frank has an OC but this team has the Reich signature all over it... well on offense it does....

Yes. It is amazing watching Luck play with competent coaching

Pez 10-29-2018 05:48 AM

The local paper had a stat today the the colts are the first team since 1970 merger to have two consecutive games with over 200 yards rushing, no sacks and no giveaways.

We could be two defensive playmakers away from something great. I like where we are. Third straight game without a sack.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Racehorse 10-29-2018 05:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YDFL Commish (Post 88797)
Manning also had Marcus Pollard that year. An embarrassment of riches it was.

Did you know he was formerly a basketball player?

albany ed 10-29-2018 07:00 AM

As well as Luck is playing right now, he can be a lot better. He still seems to lock in on a receiver and regardless of whether he's open or not, instead of going through his progressions, he forces the throw. The deflection caught by Inman is a prime example. It could be that he still reacts to having little or no time, given the OLs history of being porous, so I'm hoping he starts to feel confident in going through his progressions in the future.

DrSpaceman 10-29-2018 07:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albany ed (Post 88894)
As well as Luck is playing right now, he can be a lot better. He still seems to lock in on a receiver and regardless of whether he's open or not, instead of going through his progressions, he forces the throw. The deflection caught by Inman is a prime example. It could be that he still reacts to having little or no time, given the OLs history of being porous, so I'm hoping he starts to feel confident in going through his progressions in the future.

He did the same thing on a 3rd down play to Hilton today. Was looking his way the whole time, obvious he was making that throw and it had no chance.

rm1369 10-29-2018 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albany ed (Post 88894)
As well as Luck is playing right now, he can be a lot better. He still seems to lock in on a receiver and regardless of whether he's open or not, instead of going through his progressions, he forces the throw. The deflection caught by Inman is a prime example. It could be that he still reacts to having little or no time, given the OLs history of being porous, so I'm hoping he starts to feel confident in going through his progressions in the future.

Agreed. And I’m confident it will come. He’s already protecting his body more and checking the ball down way more often (helped by play designs that give him a safety outlet). I think the OL play will definitely help, but I think a bigger part will be getting confidence in the other pass catchers. The main two targets I’ve seen him lock into have been TY and Doyle - historically his two most reliable options. And it often seems to happen on 3rd down where it’s a “need it” type play. Hopefully the team is mostly through their drop issues. Things like the Mo Alie-Cox TD catch and a couple of the Inman catches will go along way to solving the issue IMO.

1965southpaw 10-29-2018 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rm1369 (Post 88904)
Agreed. And I’m confident it will come. He’s already protecting his body more and checking the ball down way more often (helped by play designs that give him a safety outlet). I think the OL play will definitely help, but I think a bigger part will be getting confidence in the other pass catchers. The main two targets I’ve seen him lock into have been TY and Doyle - historically his two most reliable options. And it often seems to happen on 3rd down where it’s a “need it” type play. Hopefully the team is mostly through their drop issues. Things like the Mo Alie-Cox TD catch and a couple of the Inman catches will go along way to solving the issue IMO.

Agree this is still a development area....but I think he's well on his way to adjusting now that he is having some time. That TD catch was designed for Jack Doyle. He was covered up and Luck went to a 2nd target for a TD.

Racehorse 10-29-2018 06:22 PM

I saw several checkdowns yesterday

Colts And Orioles 11-20-2018 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrSpaceman (Post 88783)




It's truly remarkable when you consider:


This would be his second 40 TD season of his career, despite his injury struggles

He had not played in over a year before the season and many were debating if he could even play again last year

The people he has been throwing to this year have been TY Hilton part of the time, a decent TE red zone target in Eric Ebron and then a whole bunch of guys most have never really heard before this year.

There was virtually no run game the first 2/3 of the season

Its a new offensive system with a rookie head coach calling plays

OL has come together lately but was a mess to start the season with injuries

No need to mention the drops so far this year


Contrast that to when manning threw 49 TDs (would have been more) :

Basically three other HOFers on the offense in Wayne, Harrison and Edge, plus had a great 3rd WR in Stokely and a great TE in Dallas Clark. I don't think there is any comparison between the skill position players

Those guys rarely dropped passes

The offensive system had been in place for man years and Manning was perfecting it at the time

He had a center in Saturday and a left tackle in Tarik Glenn that were veterans and he had worked with for years.

The run game had Edge, as mentioned was really solid at the time, play action was huge for that Colts team.

Manning was still healthy, had never had any serious injuries, at least to his arm/neck at the time (I believe he had the jaw injury early on he played threw)


Dungy had already been in place for 3 or 4 years at the time.


To that point in his career Manning had never thrown more than 33 TDs in a season. In fact that was his only 30+ TD season up to that time.

Now Manning had an amazing 9.9% TD pct throwing rate that year and Luck is only at 6.4% this year, but its still amazing what he has done.




o



(2 GAMES LATER)



Luck threw 6 TD's and 1 INT in his last 2 games combined ........ hence, he is still on pace for 46 (or 47) TD's for the season.


Luck (and the Colts) were doing so well in their most recent game that Jacoby Brissett came in to go through the motions of finishing up the contest, with the team being up by a score of 38-3.



o

Chromeburn 11-20-2018 02:44 PM

Manning had better talent. But the league has changed. This is only the beginning of an offensive era. All these records are going to get blown out of the water as more teams embrace the offensive explosion. The game last night is only the beginning. We are going to see more 40-50 point games. Defenses will become almost dime based.

If Manning was starting today with that team he would throw 70 TDs

DrSpaceman 11-20-2018 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chromeburn (Post 93032)
Manning had better talent. But the league has changed. This is only the beginning of an offensive era. All these records are going to get blown out of the water as more teams embrace the offensive explosion. The game last night is only the beginning. We are going to see more 40-50 point games. Defenses will become almost dime based.

If Manning was starting today with that team he would throw 70 TDs

Very true.

Looking back at Manning's TD totals for his early career, they seem pedestrian now.

AT the time they were top of the league, on a faster pace than almost all QBs in history.

Between 2000-2010, manning threw for 40000 yards and over 300 TDs, I don't recall the exact numbers, but at the time it was basically the best decade ever by a QB in terms of those numbers. I remember looking it all up at the time and posting on it.

Now those would be good but not by any means spectacular numbers. I think Brees probably threw for 50000 yards, or close to it, over the past decade.

And really much of that was because of manning. I know the Bills did the hurry up in the early 90s, but Manning and what he did really changed the league and caused many teams to adopt the hurry up system as we see it commonly today. Even the Pats. Brady never did that shit before 2007 while they were winning their first three SBs. Manning had been doing it for years before the adopted the system

VeveJones007 11-20-2018 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrSpaceman (Post 93040)
Very true.

Looking back at Manning's TD totals for his early career, they seem pedestrian now.

AT the time they were top of the league, on a faster pace than almost all QBs in history.

Between 2000-2010, manning threw for 40000 yards and over 300 TDs, I don't recall the exact numbers, but at the time it was basically the best decade ever by a QB in terms of those numbers. I remember looking it all up at the time and posting on it.

Now those would be good but not by any means spectacular numbers. I think Brees probably threw for 50000 yards, or close to it, over the past decade.

And really much of that was because of manning. I know the Bills did the hurry up in the early 90s, but Manning and what he did really changed the league and caused many teams to adopt the hurry up system as we see it commonly today. Even the Pats. Brady never did that shit before 2007 while they were winning their first three SBs. Manning had been doing it for years before the adopted the system

It was caused by Manning, but not in the way you're suggesting. Polian convinced the league that the offensive product was a better way to attract fans, pointing to the Colts as an example. That led to rule changes that hurt the ability to defend the pass. Then, having a healthy QB became the next point of emphasis, so the league adopted a lot of other rules to limit dangerous hits on QBs.

VeveJones007 11-20-2018 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chromeburn (Post 93032)
Manning had better talent. But the league has changed. This is only the beginning of an offensive era. All these records are going to get blown out of the water as more teams embrace the offensive explosion. The game last night is only the beginning. We are going to see more 40-50 point games. Defenses will become almost dime based.

If Manning was starting today with that team he would throw 70 TDs

Manning threw 56 with the current slate of rules and a damn good set of receivers. Maybe he hits 60 with Marvin and Reggie, but 70 is right out.

Chromeburn 11-20-2018 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrSpaceman (Post 93040)
Very true.

Looking back at Manning's TD totals for his early career, they seem pedestrian now.

AT the time they were top of the league, on a faster pace than almost all QBs in history.

Between 2000-2010, manning threw for 40000 yards and over 300 TDs, I don't recall the exact numbers, but at the time it was basically the best decade ever by a QB in terms of those numbers. I remember looking it all up at the time and posting on it.

Now those would be good but not by any means spectacular numbers. I think Brees probably threw for 50000 yards, or close to it, over the past decade.

And really much of that was because of manning. I know the Bills did the hurry up in the early 90s, but Manning and what he did really changed the league and caused many teams to adopt the hurry up system as we see it commonly today. Even the Pats. Brady never did that shit before 2007 while they were winning their first three SBs. Manning had been doing it for years before the adopted the system

One thing I don’t think people realize is all these QBs coming in are being groomed by the Mannings. They are all attending their QB camp at a young age, and then counseling at the camp once they’re in college. The Mannings are very hands on in the camps. I think that is why we are seeing these young guys adjust faster, better foot work, going through progressions, proper throwing motion. Peyton is out of the league but still having a large effect on it.

DrSpaceman 11-20-2018 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 93045)
It was caused by Manning, but not in the way you're suggesting. Polian convinced the league that the offensive product was a better way to attract fans, pointing to the Colts as an example. That led to rule changes that hurt the ability to defend the pass. Then, having a healthy QB became the next point of emphasis, so the league adopted a lot of other rules to limit dangerous hits on QBs.

Its not all the rules though

The game is faster and there is more passing now than there used to be.

That has nothing to do with rule changes.

And its not all Polian causing the rule changes. The tightening of the QB hit rules happened starting with Brady and his injury. God forbid he is lost for the year.

If that weren't true, they would have changed them after Carson Palmer was hurt in the playoffs in 2005. Much worse hit, same injury, just a different guy and team it happened to. But nope, had to wait 3 years until Brady suffers, then its a crisis

Chromeburn 11-20-2018 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 93047)
Manning threw 56 with the current slate of rules and a damn good set of receivers. Maybe he hits 60 with Marvin and Reggie, but 70 is right out.

We had a 100 point game last night by a 2nd year and 3rd year QB, who don’t have his processing power. Mahomes had 5 td’s? How many games did Peyton sit out the fourth because we were blowing guys out? Did he even play the last game of the year? Brady did everything he could to beat that number, Manning did it without running up the score. If he had to keep scoring I think he could have easily hit 65. 5 more than that with the new rules is not unthinkable. Manning was getting hit a lot. His sack numbers don’t reflect it, but he was the most hit QB after release. If he had a cleaner pocket and more time, he would have been unstoppable. Hell he was unstoppable for a time.

Chromeburn 11-20-2018 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrSpaceman (Post 93054)
Its not all the rules though

The game is faster and there is more passing now than there used to be.

That has nothing to do with rule changes.

And its not all Polian causing the rule changes. The tightening of the QB hit rules happened starting with Brady and his injury. God forbid he is lost for the year.

If that weren't true, they would have changed them after Carson Palmer was hurt in the playoffs in 2005. Much worse hit, same injury, just a different guy and team it happened to. But nope, had to wait 3 years until Brady suffers, then its a crisis

All that is true but really last year is what clinched it. Several QBs went down and scoring went down. Consequently ratings went down also. The owners aren’t dumb, they know ratings are tied to scoring and you do that with big plays by superstar QBs. Ratings are up, scoring is up, Billionaires are happy. This current crop of QBs will set new records when they are done annhilating the old ones.

VeveJones007 11-20-2018 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrSpaceman (Post 93054)
Its not all the rules though

The game is faster and there is more passing now than there used to be.

That has nothing to do with rule changes.

And its not all Polian causing the rule changes. The tightening of the QB hit rules happened starting with Brady and his injury. God forbid he is lost for the year.

If that weren't true, they would have changed them after Carson Palmer was hurt in the playoffs in 2005. Much worse hit, same injury, just a different guy and team it happened to. But nope, had to wait 3 years until Brady suffers, then its a crisis

The game is faster and there is more passing because the rule changes made it easier to throw the ball.

omahacolt 11-20-2018 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 93045)
It was caused by Manning, but not in the way you're suggesting. Polian convinced the league that the offensive product was a better way to attract fans, pointing to the Colts as an example. That led to rule changes that hurt the ability to defend the pass. Then, having a healthy QB became the next point of emphasis, so the league adopted a lot of other rules to limit dangerous hits on QBs.

Not exactly. Polian didn’t campaign for rule changes. No rules were changed. They just wanted the rules called as they stood. No rules were changed. To me that is very important to remember.

They changed rules after Palmer and Brady got hit low.

Dewey 5 11-20-2018 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by omahacolt (Post 93085)
Not exactly. Polian didn’t campaign for rule changes. No rules were changed. They just wanted the rules called as they stood. No rules were changed. To me that is very important to remember.

They changed rules after Palmer and Brady got hit low.

Correct. It's the Mel Blount Rule. It was put on the books in 1978.

VeveJones007 11-20-2018 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by omahacolt (Post 93085)
Not exactly. Polian didn’t campaign for rule changes. No rules were changed. They just wanted the rules called as they stood. No rules were changed. To me that is very important to remember.

They changed rules after Palmer and Brady got hit low.

Fair. The NFL made holding and illegal contact a point of emphasis, but those rules were already on the books.

JAFF 11-20-2018 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by omahacolt (Post 93085)
Not exactly. Polian didn’t campaign for rule changes. No rules were changed. They just wanted the rules called as they stood. No rules were changed. To me that is very important to remember.

They changed rules after Palmer and Brady got hit low.

Fyi manning was wearing a knee brace his first year. That plant leg is vulnerable to a guy accidently rolling into it

Colt Classic 11-20-2018 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dewey 5 (Post 93086)
Correct. It's the Mel Blount Rule. It was put on the books in 1978.

The guy who did the voices for Looney Tunes?! :p

Colts And Orioles 11-20-2018 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 93093)



Fair. The NFL made holding and illegal contact a point of emphasis, but those rules were already on the books.



o



Colts fans have some really bad memories from the 2003 season AFC Championship game between the Colts and the Patriots.


This article was written just prior to the regular-season game that the 2 teams played against each other the following September (of the 2004 season.)




Hands Off for Patriots in Rematch With Colts

(By Judy Battista)

https://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/09/s...ith-colts.html


o


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