Building the ‘18 Colts and beyond
 

If Saquon is available at 3, I’d take him. I think he’s a generational talent that would make everything else easier on offense. I would take him over 2 solid O-linemen, because I think his talent cannot be taught, while many big solid college linemen can be developed through good NFL coaching.

If Saquon is not available, at 3 that’s actually even better. That would mean one of the marquee QB’s is on the board, and someone will give you a first rounder this year and next, along with a 2nd or 3rd this year. I would take that ransom over Bradley Chubb. I have nothing bad to say about Chubb, except that picking him straight up at 3 is probably our worst outcome in my opinion. We are switching to a 4-3, we have new coaches and a no-name defense, and I just can’t see even a very talented pass rusher making a Freeney-esque impact for several years.

Frank Reich is an offensive guy and I say you stack him with weapons first, and see if you can get a big defensive steal later in the draft. Mathis, Bethea, Bob Sanders, Cato, Thornton, Brackett- none of those guys were first round picks, but you’re not going to find Luck-like offensive talent outside of the first or 2nd rounds.

Bradley Chubb is an impact defender. If he's the worst case scenario at 3, the Colts are in pretty good shape. Saquon Barkley seems like the worst case scenario at 3 to me, but that may be because I don't believe the marginal ROI between an elite starting RB and a good RB committee is worth a high pick investment, especially not a top 5 or 10 pick. Elite pass rushers are, and Chubb fits that bill. Honestly, I'd like to see the Colts find a way to get Chubb and Marcus Davenport If possible. I think Davenport would not only be able to learn from the coaches but also Chubb, and watching Davenport play, he has a chance to be an absolute game wrecker if someone can teach him how to effectively beat OLs. His size and speed doesn't come along often (the last 6'7" 260+ DL who could run with RBs that I remember is Julius Peppers), nor does his strength and length. Putting those two on the same DL could create a new Freeney/Mathis type of dynamic pass rushing duo, and that would be a great start toward building a great defense, which is something this team has lacked for decades except for short bursts in the late 2000s. If Reich is an offensive genius, let's see him utilize what the team has along with some mid round skill position players to make a good offense and invest in the defense for a refreshing, welcome change. He's already got the best start anyone could ask for in Andrew Luck.

Heh...and now for the third opinion....

None of that matters if Luck is still getting hit 10+ times a game. Full stop. End of discussion.

Will a new, intelligence offensive system help with that? Sure.
Will a new OC / QB coach who are not idiots help with that? Sure.

But, in the end, our O-Linemen need to be able to hold at the point of attack making our RB by committee apporach more effective AND keep the pocket clean for Luck to make plays.

Can the Colts sign good enough guys in free agency to "fix" to O-Line problem? Yes they can. Will they? I will tell you in a month.

Grab one of Solder/Flemming at OT and then one of Norwell/Pugh/Kline/Mewhort at OG to add to the mix of Haeg and Good and may the best 3 win.

If the Colts do that, then I am fine with having the Chubb vs Barkley vs trade down debate.

But, if the Colts cannot do that, then I hope they use the #3 on the best O-Lineman they can and I don't care if he is OG or OT.

Walk Worthy,

I would love to add Norwell and go with young defenders in the draft. However, I see Roquan Smith as the player that you have to try to get. He is a field general and very good all over the field. I would even reach a couple picks or so to get him, because he is going to be that good.

I agree gotta fix the line, Go "Big~N~Ugly" early and avoid the rush ... Quenton Nelson here for me !!!

:cool:

Swing posts here again?

No way is a RB or guard worth the #3 pick. Barkley and Nelson are probably going to be very good players. But you don't need a top 5 pick at either position to have an elite player there. On the other hand you usually do need a top 1st rounder to have an elite pass rusher. Passing on Chubb seems like a bad choice to me, we are hurting for 4-3 DEs and that is one of the few positions where an individual makes the most difference on an NFL team. The RB and interior OL class is a lot deeper than at pass rusher this year. There's one premier, elite DE prospect, and we will probably be able to draft him. It's crazy to me to think about passing on him.

Also don't understand the mindset that we need to run our offense through a RB. Why even bother with having a franchise QB if that's what we're doing?

I am not sure Roquan Smith's game will work in the NFL. We'll see how he weighs in and moves at the Combine. Can he run the same way if he puts on 15 lbs?

Given the developments in the AFC south it's damn clear you better be able to rush the passer, AND keep yours upright.
This team has too many holes to fill in both those areas to be very competitive next year.
Fix the pass rush, THE absolute number one priority and maybe that'll keep us in games. Then, if Luck survives perhaps he can get us a couple wins.
If he is busted, we'll have an early pick or two again

Early on I was on the Barkely at #3 bandwagon. But this a supply and demand league. The supply of pass rushers is small, while the supply of RB's is comparable to last years draft.

When you have the chance at the pass rusher, then you have to take it, because I doubt that we are picking at #3 again anytime soon.

As for Raquon Smith, let's just say...Let it go down in history, how many time the undersized LB has been discounted as being to small for the NFL, and all of the fans and pundits have been proven wrong.

I don't think he's flat out too small. I think he's too small to dominate in the NFL like he did in college, and therefore don't think I'd take him early in round 1. He will need to get bigger, and usually when players get bigger they get slower. A lot of his playmaking was based on his speed.

give me chubb.


(insert jokes here)

This is basically my feeling, and even if I agree with Brett Kollman's most recent film room, in which he says Barkley is the best RB prospect in over a decade and is the second coming of LaDainian Tomlinson, I still don't know about taking him at 3. I'd hate to miss out on him, but I'd likewise hate to leave holes on a defense that is more full of holes than the offense.

Also, not sure why Chubb wouldn't have an immediate Freeney-like impact. He's a slightly different kind of player so may not expect the speed-demon outside rushes, but he is still the kind of guy who can come in and have an impact right away.

The question on my mind is not if Chubb cannot have an immediate impact.

My question is if he is THAT much better than Arden Key whom will very probably be available at the top of the 2nd round?

Or is Chubb that much better than Davenport where we could trade back, pick up more 2nd or 3rd round picks and then pick Davenport in the middle of the 1st round?

If people were saying that he is Von Miller-like, then you take him at #3 no questions asked.

But folks are saying that he is complete and good and NFL ready but not transcendent.

I would like more picks for potentially good NFL players rather than less picks for potentially great NFL players. Lets get all 22 spots up to NFL average / good before worrying about NFL great.

Walk Worthy,

I'm not quite done watching film on him yet, but Smith seems undersized and like solid coverage LB who will struggle in run support in the NFL. He's going to have to learn how to fight through blocks better (losing squared up with TEs is bad news in the NFL) and he needs to finish plays better.

I've heard Chubb compared to Joey Bosa and Mario Williams. I've seen him take over games and singlehandedly wreck offensive gameplans. As I said in the other thread, he reminds me of Jared Allen because of how polished of a technician and NFL ready he is. If you're debating Chubb vs. Davenport, the right question isn't how much better is Chubb than Davenport now (because Chubb is leaps and bounds better currently), it's who will be better in 5 years. My answer to that is I'm fairly confident that Chubb will be a pro bowler and in the all pro conversation, while Davenport will either be an all pro himself, or a struggling backup somewhere. Davenport has all the tools and needs a lot of coaching to refine his technique. Chubb is NFL ready now and will likely become an impact player. I'd take Chubb between the two because the floor is much higher while the ceiling is comparable, but there's no doubt that Davenport has the higher ceiling. It's just not by much.

Sherck all you need to know about Arden Key is that his production came when he was 235 lbs. He ran around blockers. That was 2016. Since then he ballooned up to 280 while taking time off from football, came back around 260, and did nothing his final year of college ball. I wouldn't touch him until the 4th and that's if he had a reasonable explanation for the off field stuff. Seems like an athlete that doesn't really want to play football.

I also think the "Chubb is solid but not great" stuff came from one early comment weeks ago when someone said "He's not Miles Garrett but he's the best edge rusher in this class". Since then I've read many glowing reports on him highlighting his athleticism, technique, strength, football knowledge, and motor. I've watched games where he has been an unblockable force of nature. I don't think he's going to run a 4.5 40 but the Combine should put to rest any questions about how athletic he is. He is not just the tallest midget, he is a defense-changing prospect and we are lucky to be in position to get him (assuming he doesn't go before we pick).

Chubb. If for some weird reason he's taken at 1 or 2, trade back to later in the top 10 and pick Smith or Nelson.

Bradley Chubb on the Colts fast surface is a perennial All Pro. So what if he's Jared Allen and not Lawrence Taylor? Don't overthink this.

Kind of cool, huh?

The 2nd best pass rusher in this draft is Harold Landry.

What the drop-off is between Chubb and Landry is the key question.

I don't know the answer to that question. But I do know that you have to watch Landry's junior season to get the truer answer.

I couldn't have said it better myself !! Chubb is the #1 defensive player in this years draft, if Ballard passes on him I will lose a lot of faith in him. You can bolster the OL in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, NOT at pick #3.

O-Line Dream Scenario:

#1 Re-sign Jack Mewhort on a 1-year "prove it" deal with big incentives.

#2 Win the Andrew Norwell contest by backing up a HUGE truck load of money.

#3 Sign OT Cameron Flemming from the Cheats to a low-end starter contract.

#4 Draft one of the following OGs in the 2nd or 3rd rounds of the draft: Isaiah Wynn (Georgia, 2nd round), Will Hernandez (UTEP, 2nd round), Billy Price (OSU, 3rd round), Will Clapp (LSU 3rd round)

We could get greedy and say sign Nate Solder instead of Flemming but I think Solder will be way overpaid and I think Ballard only geeks on one huge O-Line contract. If so, I would want Norwell over Solder.

That gives us a depth chart of:

OT = Anthony Castonzo, Cameron Flemming, Denzelle Good, Joe Haeg

OG = Andrew Norwell, Jack Mewhort, Rookie, Le'Raven Clark

OC = Ryan Kelly, Mike Person

So, the whole rest of the draft can be used for defense and/or offensive speciality positions and we only brought in 2 outside veteran free agents.



My guess is that we will end up with a whole lot less than ideal but it is what it is.

However, that is what I would love to see happen for the offensive line.

Walk Worthy,

If we have Luck, Saquon, Gore, and T.Y., we will be hard to stop on every single possession.

If we have Chubb, he doesn't even get to use his super power until we force the opponent into predictable passing situations.

If Chubb has a huge showing at the combine, it could change my mind.

Wynn, Hernandez and Price could all be gone by the time we pick in the 2nd rd. In fact I expect at least one of them to be a 1st rd pick.

I would also throw James Daniels in that mix of OL from above. In fact, if my OL coach and my center agreed, I would consider drafting Daniels and moving Kelly to RG.

Just saw a report on NFL total access that Colts are not resigning Gore. Not sure if that's official or just speculation but they were talking about it like it was a done deal when they were discussing the greatest roster needs for the Colts.

Absolutely do not take Barkley

Without hesitation you take Chubb. Time to build a superior defense.

Why, only because I want to hear of your reasoning?

It is easier to find good RBs later than Pass rushers. If you have a 3 you focus on QB, LT and Pass Rush.

We have way too many holes to use a top 5 Pick on a rb. Running backs can be found anywhere

Who was the last RB taken third? The answer might give sound reasoning.

Chubb. Chubb. Chubb.

That's simply not true.

You win superbowls in this league with oline and dline and we've failed miserably the last 5+ years at scouting this talent.

It has to be Chubb. We don't need another shiny new toy (Barkley). Would I love to have him - hell yea, but the team needs Chubb.

You need a moist towelette ? :eek:

The only way we take Barkley is if Chubb goes 1 or 2, and the Colts can't find a partner to trade down. My worst fear would be Chubb goes #1, Barkley #2, and we don't trade down.

Heard on the radio that Giants are really interested in Chubb at #2 rather than a QB. (Joel klatt maybe?). Anyway that would suck unless we are really looking to trade back.

Gettleman liked himself some 1st round RBs in Carolina. If he can’t find a trade partner targeting a QB, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him go with Barkley.

and unfortunately no rings with the player that pick was used on.

Here is my take. I would love to stockpile picks if we had some impact players already on the team to build around. But we are lacking in a lot of areas. We will have a shot of at least at two of the four best players in this draft.

After QB, the second most important position in today's league iis a pass rusher. We do not have a bell cow in that area so our need aligns with the best defender in the draft: Chubb. I heard Mcglinchey say a few weeks ago in an interview that Chubb was hands down the best defender he has ever faced. He has also been working out against him every day in California. If you don't have a pass rush, you are going nowhere in this league. I think we should double dip in this draft at the very least. After Chubb, the DE candidates start to get sketchy. I don't want a project like Davenport. Sure he has a high ceiling, also has a low floor. For every Davenport that succeeds there are a ton that go by the wayside. I will take technique and skill over raw athleticism. IMO the first round is not the round to take those projects.

If Chubb is gone, I would go with Nelson. I really like Barkley, in the right offense he could be a devastating weapon. He isn't really a hard inside runner, you want to move him all over to create mismatches. He would be hard to pass by especially if you think he could have a Faulk type impact. That is really hard to pass by, especially since we need an impact player in the backfield. However, this draft is deep at RB: Guice, Jones, Johnson, Chubb, Michel, Freeman, Penny, Kelly, Adams, Walton, Ballage. Not all will be a bell cow, but there is a lot of potential in there and some of these guys will fall. We could get a good back in the third or fourth.

This is also a deep draft in interior linemen. Will Hernandez the past two years has been rated very close to Nelson, and was rated better last year. Bill Price, Raganow, Brandon, and more. There are guys to be had. The reason I say Nelson next after Chubb is b/c Nelson would allow Luck to step up in the pocket. I don't like drafting a guard that high, but his skill and potential has kind of won me over. Still, we could get a guy later and not have a lot of dropoff IMO.

If I have my way, this is how I would draft:
1. Bradley Chubb
2. Maurice Hurst

This would give us instant pass rush. I think Hurst might drop because teams are worried about his size holding up in the league. But in our scheme I think he would excel. He would give us that interior pass rush presence we lacked the last time we ran a 4-3. He would prevent QB's from stepping up into the pocket and they would be moving off their space. Combine that with Chubb's non-stop motor and they could be a devastating combination for years.

Defense wins championships, and this would instantly inject our D with the most critical component to win today. With these two on the front line, Hooker will capitalize from the mistakes that will be forced. Giving our offense more possessions, which equal more points, which means the other team has to pass more. Rinse, repeat.

Now check out this mock I saw this morning
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2...op-five-picks/

That would be a smart play. JPP is almost done. But they need a QB and they are kidding themselves if they think they will get a better shot at getting one in the next couple years. They can groom a guy for a couple years behind Eli, which is exactly what most of these QB's need.

It depends on their long term plan. They may know they'll suck for a few years. If they view the QB options in next year's draft as better than this year, they may take the pass rusher this year and wait a year on the QB.

Not really a big deal either way. If they take chubb, it makes our pick that much more valuable for some other team that wants a QB, so it could set up a big trade. If they don't take chubb, then we get him. Either way, we are sitting good.