this breaks it down pretty well
https://www.colts.com/news/how-colts...layoff-destiny
Entering Week 16, the Colts have an uphill climb to make the playoffs for the first time since 2020 – and while the path is steep, it is clear.
With three games left, let's re-set where the Colts are in the AFC playoff picture and, using The Athletic's numbers, look at the odds for this team to reach the postseason by playing out several different scenarios to close out the 2025 regular season.
Buckle up, this is about to get complicated – but there's some fascinating stuff still to be decided starting this weekend.
AFC Standings (division leader)
Denver Broncos (12-2)*
New England Patriots (11-3)*
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)*
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)*
Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
Buffalo Bills (10-4)
Houston Texans (9-5)
Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
The main teams we're going to focus on here are the Jaguars, Chargers and Texans. The Steelers, Bills and Patriots will come into play in some narrow scenarios. The Ravens will either win the AFC North or finish behind the Colts in the wild card standings.
Seven AFC teams are already eliminated from the playoffs: the Chiefs, Dolphins, Bengals, Jets, Browns, Raiders and Titans.
Current playoff odds, scenarios & tiebreakers in final 3 weeks
The Colts, per The Athletic, have an 8 percent chance of reaching the playoffs and currently do not control their own playoff destiny.
However, if at least one of these results happens on Sunday, the Colts would kick off on Monday night against the 49ers in complete control of their playoff destiny:
Jaguars lose to Broncos (at Denver)
Chargers lose to Cowboys (at Dallas)
Texans lose to Raiders (at Houston)
If either result occurs and the Colts win their final three games, they would make the playoffs. Here's how, again, with the requirement the Colts win their final three games:
Jaguars lose to Broncos: This would put the Jaguars at 10-5. A Colts win over the Jaguars in Week 17 would then even both teams' records at 10-6; if both teams finish 11-6, the Colts would win the tiebreaker. Here's the fine print on how: The Colts and Jaguars would both be 11-6, 1-1 against each other, 4-2 in the AFC South, 9-4 against common opponents (HOU, TEN, SF, KC, DEN, LAC, LV, SEA, LAR, SF, AZ) and 8-4 against conference opponents, which would push to the NFL's fifth tiebreaker, which is strength of victory, and it would favor the Colts.
Chargers lose to Cowboys: This would cut the Colts' deficit to both the Chargers and Texans to one game (or would tie the Colts with Houston if the Texans lose to the Raiders). But since the Chargers and Texans play each other in Week 17, the Colts would either enter Week 18 tied with the Chargers at 10-6 (if the Texans win; the Colts have the head-to-head tiebreaker based on their Week 7 win in Los Angeles) or tied with the Texans at 10-6 (and the winner of Week 18's Colts-Texans game would make the playoffs). Even if the Texans are 9-7 entering Week 18, the Colts will still need a win (or tie) to make the playoffs, as Houston would have the tiebreaker over the Colts with a win.
Texans lose to Raiders: Again, this would require the Colts to still win in Week 18, but they'd then finish the season with an 11-6 record, which would be better than Houston at either 10-7 or 9-8.
There does exist a narrow scenario in which the Colts win their final three games and do not make the playoffs, but it requires every one of these results to happen:
Overall: Bills win any combination two of final three games against Browns, Eagles and Jets; Patriots win at least one of their final three games against the Ravens, Jets and Dolphins
Week 16: Chargers over Cowboys + Jaguars over Broncos + Texans over Raiders
Week 17: Texans over Chargers
Week 18: Chargers over Broncos + Jaguars over Titans
In this scenario, the Colts would be 11-6 and behind the 12-win Jaguars in the AFC South and the 12-win Bills/Patriots and Chargers in the wild card. The Texans would also be 11-6, but would own a better record against AFC opponents (9-3) than the Colts (8-4), which would give the tiebreaker to Houston.
However, if the Colts win their final three games and the Jaguars, Texans or Chargers lose at least twice, they would make the playoffs; in this scenario, the Colts would deal a loss to both the Jaguars (Week 17) and Texans (Week 18).
AFC South still up for grabs
Two key games exist outside of the Colts' control that, if results break their way, would open the door for the Colts to win the AFC South for the first time since 2014.
If these results were to happen, the Colts would head to Houston in Week 18 with an opportunity to clinch the AFC South with a victory:
Week 16: Colts over 49ers, Broncos over Jaguars
Week 17: Colts over Jaguars, Chargers over Texans
In this scenario, the Colts and Jaguars would be 10-6; the Texans would likely be 10-6 (again, if they beat the Raiders), but even if they lose to Las Vegas, the Colts would still need to win at NRG Stadium to clinch the division, as a loss would hand Houston the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Colts.
Additionally, the Colts could still go into Week 18 a game behind the Jaguars and still win the division with a victory over the Texans. However, this would require the Jaguars to lose at home to the 2-12 Titans.
Could the Colts go 2-1 and still make the playoffs?
Yes, but they'd need a lot more help. A 10-7 Colts team would need several things to happen:
Scenario 1: Jaguars go 0-3 AND Texans go 1-2 AND Steelers win AFC North or fewer than 10 games: if Houston's lone win is over the Raiders, the Colts would win a three-way tie of 10-7 teams for the AFC South. If Houston's lone win is over the Chargers or Colts, the Colts would lose the division but be a wild card team as long as the Ravens (7-7) do not win the AFC North over the Steelers (8-6), or the Steelers go 1-2 or 0-3 in their final three games.
Scenario 2: Chargers go 0-3 AND Bills go at least 1-2 AND Steelers win AFC North or fewer than 10 games: If the Colts and Chargers finish with the same record, the Colts would make the playoffs. However, in the event of a three-way tie between the Colts, Chargers and Bills or Colts, Chargers and Steelers, or a four-way tie between the Colts, Chargers, Bills and Steelers, the Colts would not make the playoffs in those scenarios.
