I can both hope that you’re correct and know that you’re 100% guessing.

Well Vegas has the over/under at 6.5.

Maybe they still thought your one true love was still coaching. lol

Holder put analysis behind my tempered expectations for Luck early in 2018:

https://www.indystar.com/story/sport...ury/825679002/

You're right in that I can't know what his training regimen has been for core and leg strengthening, nor how it varied prior to and during the injury, prior to and after the surgery, and in the long recovery period he's had in the offseason. Throwing a football, however, is a biomechanical motion, and has been analyzed as such. Throwing power comes from core strength. Drew Brees had a much worse labrum tear than Luck had, and he came back better than ever thanks to his focus on strengthening his core, which allowed him to make the throws he didn't have the arm for before the injury.

It isn't a perfect comparison, but the data for baseball pitchers recovering from labrum injuries proves that throwing velocity is not purely a function of core strength.

Look, I want to believe that Luck will be fine. Hell, I traded for him in a fantasy league on the hope that he'll be back. But I'm not changing my prediction of 7 or 8 wins until I see it from him. Luckily, we'll have a chance to see him throw in a game in just a few weeks.

A pitcher's mechanics are entirely different than a quarterback's mechanics. But yes, you're right, throwing power isn't purely a function of core strength (no biomechanical motion which activates as many muscles as throwing a football will be solely reliant on one group of muscles to generate power), but the bulk of the power in a throw comes from the core and the legs. Honestly, I'd be a lot more worried about his accuracy than I would about his power. That may suffer early on.

The dline is better? How?

Something else to consider and sort of lost in the toilet bowl of last year. I can't recall all the stats but I do recall articles talking about how the Colts of last year set a record for leads lost in the second half, and even more pronounced, 4th quarter leads, that were lost in just insane decisions and a lack of horses to finish the deal.

To me that says that despite Pags being a terrible coach, despite playing with a guy thrown to the wolves at QB, despite a completely ridiculous O-line shuffle, despite an absurdly pathetic pass rush and a non-existent LB corps, this team actually did show some fight last year.

We have Luck back, we unquestionably have a better Oline, and presumably we have a game breaker at RB this year that we have not had. Put a real coach on top of that; not saying playoffs but also not saying dumpster fire either. I think we are probably looking at a 50/50 year, maybe 9-7 and if Luck is flirting with who he was pre-injury late in the year I could see a push to 10-6.

[QUOTE=omahacolt;72336]The dline is better? How?[/QUOTE

You’re right. Got a little carried away there. In reality I have zero idea of how this defense will pan out. But I got hope.