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-   -   Draft Targets at #26 and #34 (http://www.coltfreaks.com/forum/showthread.php?t=70896)

Lawrence Owen 04-04-2019 11:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 115375)
The draft is still a few weeks out, but I think we have enough information to start culling the list of potential targets for the Colts at #26 and #34.

1) There are several players very likely to be selected in the top 25. Based on Ballard's comments, it's doubtful he will trade up to get one of these 16 guys before they're off the board:
  • QB: Kyler Murray
  • QB: Dwayne Haskins
  • QB: Drew Lock
  • WR: DK Metcalf
  • TE: TJ Hockenson
  • OL: Jonah Williams
  • OL: Jawaan Taylor
  • OL: Andre Dillard
  • EDGE: Nick Bosa
  • EDGE: Josh Allen
  • EDGE: Rashaun Gary
  • EDGE: Montez Sweat
  • DL: Quinnen Williams
  • DL: Ed Oliver
  • LB: Devin White
  • LB: Devin Bush

2) There are also some highly rated players that either aren't a scheme/character fit or at positions that are very unlikely to be targeted early by the Colts:

Scheme/Character:
  • DL: Jerry Tillery (5 technique)
  • DL: Dexter Lawrence (2 gap player)
  • EDGE: Jachai Polite (character knocks)
  • CB: Greedy Williams (better suited for man scheme)
  • CB/S: Rock Ya-Sin (likely a slot cover corner)
  • CB/S: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (likely a slot cover corner)
Positional Value:
  • TE: Noah Fant
  • TE: Irv Smith
  • RB: Josh Jacobs
  • OL: Garrett Bradbury
  • OL: Cody Ford
  • QB: Daniel Jones
  • OL: Erik McCoy
  • OL: Dalton Risner
  • RB: David Montgomery
  • LB: Mack Wilson
  • S: Nasir Adderley (strictly a FS)
  • S: Deionte Thompson (strictly a FS)

That significantly narrows the list of potential targets at #26 and #34:

Potential Targets:
  • DT: Jeffrey Simmons
  • DT: Christian Wilkins
  • DT: Dre'mont Jones
  • EDGE: Brian Burns
  • EDGE: Clelin Ferrell
  • EDGE: Jaylon Ferguson
  • S: Jonathan Abram
  • S: Taylor Rapp
  • CB: Byron Murphy
  • CB: Deandre Baker
  • WR: AJ Brown
  • WR: Marquise Brown
  • WR: N'Keal Harry
  • WR: Riley Ridley
  • WR: Deebo Samuel
  • WR: Terry McLaurin
  • WR: Paris Campbell

Obviously some of these guys will be off the board, so the list becomes even shorter when the Colts are on the clock at #26 and #34. I list the defenders first because I'm fairly confident that's the direction they will take. The list of WRs is a bit long because I'm not 100% sure what the Colts would value more. Do they want a slot guy? A speed threat to stretch the field?

What do you guys think? Any names you think should be moved around? Any names you would add?

I disagree on Tillery. I think he could play a role similar to Hunt at the NT position.
But other than that, I think you did really good work dissecting.

VeveJones007 04-05-2019 01:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 115503)
Well if Brian Burns is there, obviously take him, a legitimate pass rusher is the most important thing to have outside of a QB. Almost every source suggests he won't be, however, and Tillery might be the best available at 26. I'd take Tillery over Christian Wilkins, and I don't think the value is there at CB or SS. I haven't really watched any of Quinnen Williams or Josh Allen yet, but Tillery vs. Stanford is the best performance I've seen by a DL prospect since Chubb vs. FSU. To me, the tape and the measurables both show a great fit for the Colts defense, so I'd take him unless one of the guys like Sweat or Oliver falls to 26.
If it were me, I’d be trying to line up trades into the 10-15 range to get Burns. According to the value chart, 26 & 59 gets you around 14. I’d be ecstatic to walk away from the first two rounds with Burns and one of those other guys I listed at 34 (my preference would be Simmons if he makes it there).

Dam8610 04-05-2019 08:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 115511)
If it were me, I’d be trying to line up trades into the 10-15 range to get Burns. According to the value chart, 26 & 59 gets you around 14. I’d be ecstatic to walk away from the first two rounds with Burns and one of those other guys I listed at 34 (my preference would be Simmons if he makes it there).
If the Colts are trading up that high, I'd want Montez Sweat or Ed Oliver out of the deal. If they're trading up for Burns or Ferrell, I'd prefer to go to the 16-20 range and use picks 26 & 89 for the trade up.

Chromeburn 04-05-2019 10:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by YDFL Commish (Post 115486)
I like Jones as well, but feel that he may be redundant with Lewis and Autry.
Not if he is better. And he and Lewis are versatile. They could play next to each other on certain downs. Doesn't have to only play 3-tech. Autry is as well really. Just get the best pass rushers you can, then you can figure out how to get them on the field. I'm not oppossed to Tillery either, he can probably play both tackle roles and Jones can play end and 3-tech. Tillery also had a RAS score second to only Quinnen Williams I believe. Stampede blue just did a write up on him yesterday. I did one mock where I took both he and Jones. Can never have enough inside pressure with this defense.

VeveJones007 04-05-2019 10:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 115520)
If the Colts are trading up that high, I'd want Montez Sweat or Ed Oliver out of the deal. If they're trading up for Burns or Ferrell, I'd prefer to go to the 16-20 range and use picks 26 & 89 for the trade up.
I can understand the argument on Sweat. I see a higher ceiling compared to Burns, but I think Burns has the higher floor. Maybe it's from watching Freeney and Mathis all those years, but I prefer the athletic pass rusher who I know already has three moves (Burns). Sweat has more power and could develop into a beast, but I'm very confident Burns would be a perennial 10 sack guy in the Colts system.

VeveJones007 04-05-2019 10:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chromeburn (Post 115526)
Not if he is better. And he and Lewis are versatile. They could play next to each other on certain downs. Doesn't have to only play 3-tech. Autry is as well really. Just get the best pass rushers you can, then you can figure out how to get them on the field. I'm not oppossed to Tillery either, he can probably play both tackle roles and Jones can play end and 3-tech. Tillery also had a RAS score second to only Quinnen Williams I believe. Stampede blue just did a write up on him yesterday. I did one mock where I took both he and Jones. Can never have enough inside pressure with this defense.
I've seen some mocks with Jones going in Rd3, which I could absolutely see. I can't see him as an EDGE or interior lineman in a 30 front, so his pool of teams is already limited. He could be really good value to the Colts at 59 or maybe they move up a bit like they did with Lewis last year.

Dam8610 04-05-2019 11:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chromeburn (Post 115526)
Not if he is better. And he and Lewis are versatile. They could play next to each other on certain downs. Doesn't have to only play 3-tech. Autry is as well really. Just get the best pass rushers you can, then you can figure out how to get them on the field. I'm not oppossed to Tillery either, he can probably play both tackle roles and Jones can play end and 3-tech. Tillery also had a RAS score second to only Quinnen Williams I believe. Stampede blue just did a write up on him yesterday. I did one mock where I took both he and Jones. Can never have enough inside pressure with this defense.
I've seen a lot of mocks that have Tillery at 26, and I like that idea a lot more after watching his tape. His RAS score being high likely means he's high on Ballard's board as well. I'd honestly be really excited if the picks at 26 and 34 were Tillery and Simmons. They're not flashy picks, but they could solidify the DL for the next half decade.

Quote:
Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 115532)
I can understand the argument on Sweat. I see a higher ceiling compared to Burns, but I think Burns has the higher floor. Maybe it's from watching Freeney and Mathis all those years, but I prefer the athletic pass rusher who I know already has three moves (Burns). Sweat has more power and could develop into a beast, but I'm very confident Burns would be a perennial 10 sack guy in the Colts system.
Don't get me wrong, I'd be thrilled with Burns, I just wouldn't give up as much value to get him as I would to get Sweat or Oliver. If Eberflus is following the DL model they use in Dallas, Montez Sweat is his wet dream. He's big, long, fast, and has pretty much every attribute for which a DL built in that mold would ever look.

Quote:
Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 115533)
I've seen some mocks with Jones going in Rd3, which I could absolutely see. I can't see him as an EDGE or interior lineman in a 30 front, so his pool of teams is already limited. He could be really good value to the Colts at 59 or maybe they move up a bit like they did with Lewis last year.
If Jones is there at 59, absolutely pull the trigger, maybe even if the picks at 26 and 34 were used on Tillery and Simmons. Having DT be a strength of the team for once would be a new and interesting concept.

VeveJones007 04-05-2019 12:22 PM
Per Matt Miller today:

Quote:
Mississippi State defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons would have had a top-five overall grade on my big board before an ACL injury suffered during training, but multiple NFL scouts and decision-makers told me this week they still expect the pass-rushing lineman will be a top-20 pick.

Dam8610 04-05-2019 01:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 115543)
Per Matt Miller today:
That means someone else with value drops, then. I can't see a team burning a top 20 pick on an injured player, though. That said, this says a lot about what the NFL thinks of his character.

VeveJones007 04-05-2019 02:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 115553)
That means someone else with value drops, then. I can't see a team burning a top 20 pick on an injured player, though. That said, this says a lot about what the NFL thinks of his character.
I think it also speaks to the lack of elite talent at the top end of the draft. If there were 30 guys with 1st round grades, teams would be less likely to take a chance that Simmons comes back at 100% after injury.

VeveJones007 04-07-2019 01:44 AM
QB Daniel Jones is getting some recent buzz. Would be nice if he went top 25 and pushed another player down the board to 26 and 34.

Miami, Washington, and NYG are key teams to watch since they could either go for help on the DL or grab a QB.

Dam8610 04-07-2019 02:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 115617)
QB Daniel Jones is getting some recent buzz. Would be nice if he went top 25 and pushed another player down the board to 26 and 34.

Miami, Washington, and NYG are key teams to watch since they could either go for help on the DL or grab a QB.
Jones is the guy that I've thought some team would overpay to get back into round 1 for. Getting a top 40ish pick and a 2020 1 for the 26th pick would be a great deal and attainable if some team fails in love with a guy like Jones.

YDFL Commish 04-07-2019 03:50 PM
My best scenario for the Colts 1st 3 picks is:
  • Byron Murphy
  • Jerry Tillery
  • Which ever safety Ballard likes the best between Rapp, Abram, Gardner Johnson and Deionte Thompson or perhaps Nasir Adderly

TheMugwump 04-07-2019 03:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 115618)
Jones is the guy that I've thought some team would overpay to get back into round 1 for. Getting a top 40ish pick and a 2020 1 for the 26th pick would be a great deal and attainable if some team fails in love with a guy like Jones.
Especially the 2020 Rd. 1, since it would possibly be a team picking in the top half of the draft.

On board with this one. Although Jones is as ready to play NFL football as any QB in the draft this year, considering his college coach.

VeveJones007 04-07-2019 05:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by YDFL Commish (Post 115650)
My best scenario for the Colts 1st 3 picks is:
  • Byron Murphy
  • Jerry Tillery
  • Which ever safety Ballard likes the best between Rapp, Abram, Gardner Johnson and Deionte Thompson or perhaps Nasir Adderly
My crazy dream scenario is Burns, Simmons/Wilkins, and Rapp/Abram. Then grab a corner or two in rounds 3/4 who fall because of 40 times, but are good fits for zone schemes.

VeveJones007 04-07-2019 05:35 PM
If I had to put odds on the pick at 26, my money’s still on Wilkins.

VeveJones007 04-19-2019 03:08 PM
It's being reported that Montez Sweat has an enlarged heart. I wonder if he's on the Colts board based on their medical checks.

AlwaysSunnyinIndy 04-19-2019 05:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 116705)
It's being reported that Montez Sweat has an enlarged heart. I wonder if he's on the Colts board based on their medical checks.

Yep, it was first widely reported at the combine.

http://coltfreaks.com/forum/showpost...0&postcount=54


And now today, there are rumors that several teams have completely removed Sweat from their draft boards. The Colts passed on Maurice Hurst Jr multiple times last year, although I have read that Hurst's condition is worse.

Luck4Reich 04-19-2019 05:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 116705)
It's being reported that Montez Sweat has an enlarged heart. I wonder if he's on the Colts board based on their medical checks.
Such a scary thing. You hate it for these guys.

Coltsalr 04-19-2019 06:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 115656)
If I had to put odds on the pick at 26, my money’s still on Wilkins.
I’d go Simmons if I had a gun to my head.

YDFL Commish 04-19-2019 06:46 PM
[QUOTE=Coltsalr;116720]I’d go Simmons if I had a gun to my head.[/QUOTE

Wilkins dropping to us would be a godsend. He's everything that you want in a player, teammate, leader and human being. He's a classic 3-Tch with size to boot.

What's not to like?

Coltsalr 04-19-2019 09:24 PM
[QUOTE=YDFL Commish;116721]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coltsalr (Post 116720)
I’d go Simmons if I had a gun to my head.[/QUOTE

Wilkins dropping to us would be a godsend. He's everything that you want in a player, teammate, leader and human being. He's a classic 3-Tch with size to boot.

What's not to like?
I like Wilkins a lot.

I was saying in terms of there was a gun to my head on who I had to predict the Colts would take, Simmons would be the choice (who I also like a lot).

smitty46953 04-19-2019 09:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 115656)
If I had to put odds on the pick at 26, my money’s still on Wilkins.
Hope he is there at 26 but I doubt he is... :cool:

VeveJones007 04-19-2019 11:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smitty46953 (Post 116729)
Hope he is there at 26 but I doubt he is... :cool:
That’s the question. Less than a week to wait!

Puck 04-20-2019 12:59 AM
Y’all gonna be shocked when he takes a safety at 26

VeveJones007 04-20-2019 01:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Puck (Post 116733)
Y’all gonna be shocked when he takes a safety at 26
If his name is Jonathan Abram, I wouldn’t be shocked.

FatDT 04-20-2019 06:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Puck (Post 116733)
Y’all gonna be shocked when he takes a safety at 26
I think the only 3 realistic options are DL, DB, or WR.

smitty46953 04-20-2019 08:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 116734)
If his name is Jonathan Abram, I wouldn’t be shocked.
Yes, I agree Abram would not surprise me a bit. :cool:

Coltsalr 04-20-2019 10:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smitty46953 (Post 116739)
Yes, I agree Abram would not surprise me a bit. :cool:
And I’d be pretty damn happy over it.

TheMugwump 04-20-2019 10:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FatDT (Post 116737)
I think the only 3 realistic options are DL, DB, or WR.
Gonna be an OT.

YDFL Commish 04-20-2019 12:03 PM
Frankly, I don't believe any of the safeties have 1st round value.

Abrams is also strictly a SS, which I'm not sure that's what Ballard wants.

VeveJones007 04-20-2019 01:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by YDFL Commish (Post 116758)
Frankly, I don't believe any of the safeties have 1st round value.

Abrams is also strictly a SS, which I'm not sure that's what Ballard wants.
Reading the tea leaves, it sounds like Ballard pushed hard for Collins but backed off when the bidding got crazy. Couple that with how important a quality SS is in this scheme, and you have a big need there. I don’t think some people realize the Leonard-type impact that a great SS could have on the other half of the field.

Not only is Abram a badass heat seeking missile, but it also sounds like he’s a good guy and teammate, things we know Ballard values.

VeveJones007 04-20-2019 01:30 PM
Quote:
DT: Jeffrey Simmons
DT: Christian Wilkins
DT: Dre'mont Jones
EDGE: Brian Burns
EDGE: Clelin Ferrell
EDGE: Jaylon Ferguson
S: Jonathan Abram
S: Taylor Rapp
CB: Byron Murphy
CB: Deandre Baker
WR: AJ Brown
WR: Marquise Brown
WR: N'Keal Harry
WR: Riley Ridley
WR: Deebo Samuel
WR: Terry McLaurin
WR: Paris Campbell
I’m sticking with this list at 26/34. Excited that we’re finally under a week until days 1-2.

AlwaysSunnyinIndy 04-20-2019 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 116705)
It's being reported that Montez Sweat has an enlarged heart. I wonder if he's on the Colts board based on their medical checks.

Based on the rumors that his draft position was dropping - Sweat has now decided not to attend the draft in person. He will watch it at home with his family in Georgia.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/sta...31759010881537

smitty46953 04-20-2019 02:31 PM
Personally I don't see us trading up for anyone. Just gut feeling but I believe Ballard values the picks. Would love to see Brian Burns with a horseshoe on his helmet, but not going to happen.

With 26, 34, & 59 he should be able to get 3 guys who make an immediate impact. So in my opinion Simmons is not an option as he won't see the field in 2019, wouldn't even be in the conversation if not for injury. Sweat is another guy great talent but with the heart issue he is off my board.

So here is how I see it

Christian Wilkins if there but I don't think he falls past the Redskins at #15 or Titans at #19

#26 Jonathan Abram (Miss State / S)
#34 Dre'mont Jones (Ohio State / DT)
#59 Paris Campbell (Ohio State / WR)
:cool:

VeveJones007 04-20-2019 02:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smitty46953 (Post 116772)
Personally I don't see us trading up for anyone. Just gut feeling but I believe Ballard values the picks. Would love to see Brian Burns with a horseshoe on his helmet, but not going to happen.

With 26, 34, & 59 he should be able to get 3 guys who make an immediate impact. So in my opinion Simmons is not an option as he won't see the field in 2019, wouldn't even be in the conversation if not for injury. Sweat is another guy great talent but with the heart issue he is off my board.

So here is how I see it

Christian Wilkins if there but I don't think he falls past the Redskins at #15 or Titans at #19

#26 Jonathan Abram (Miss State / S)
#34 Dre'mont Jones (Ohio State / DT)
#59 Paris Campbell (Ohio State / WR)
:cool:
I could see this, but my personal preference would be Abram, Winovich/Ferguson, Jones. I think Jones will be there at 59, so that’s the big difference for me. I’m also assuming Simmons is gone by 26 there.

YDFL Commish 04-20-2019 03:45 PM
Going strictly based on my eyes, I still think that Adderly is the best safety in the draft.

Puck 04-20-2019 06:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FatDT (Post 116737)
I think the only 3 realistic options are DL, DB, or WR.
He’s too smart to waste a pick in a WR

rcubed 04-20-2019 08:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Puck (Post 116792)
He’s too smart to waste a pick in a WR
not at 26 or 34, but maybe 59 if someone is there he likes.

Puck 04-20-2019 09:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VeveJones007 (Post 116767)
Reading the tea leaves, it sounds like Ballard pushed hard for Collins but backed off when the bidding got crazy. Couple that with how important a quality SS is in this scheme, and you have a big need there. I don’t think some people realize the Leonard-type impact that a great SS could have on the other half of the field.

Not only is Abram a badass heat seeking missile, but it also sounds like he’s a good guy and teammate, things we know Ballard values.
Glad I’m not the only one that understands the value of a SS in this system.


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