Originally Posted by AlwaysSunnyinIndy (Post 153812)

Thanks Smitty for the write-up. I don't follow much college football so it is much appreciated.




One comment about the trades: I doubt either of these will occur as proposed. While they appear to be equal "value" when looking at a Draft Value Chart, when multiple teams are interested in trading up for a QB, a premium is usually paid.

For instance, review the two trades from the 2018 draft including the Colts-Jets trade:

Colts traded: 1.03 (value = 2200)
Jets traded: 1.06, 2.37, 2.49 and future 2nd (value = 2800+)

So the Jets had to pay almost a 30% premium to move up 3 spots in the first round.

Similarly, look at the Tampa Bay - Buffalo trade that same year:

Bucs traded: 1.07, 7.255 (value = 1501)
Bills traded: 1.12, 2.53 and 2.56 (value = 1910)

The Bills also paid about a 30% premium to move up 5 spots from 12 to 7.

The premium can vary from year to year based on the number of teams looking to trade up as well as the number of teams looking to trade down. Supply and demand.

If you would apply the 30% premium to the proposed trades for this year it would look like this:

Lions trade: 1.03 (value = 2200)
Dolphins trade: 1.05, 2.39, 2.56 and future 2nd (value = 2800+)

and

Lions trade: 1.05 (value = 1700)
Colts trade: 1.13, 2.34, and 2.44 (value = 2170)


Will the Dolphins still make the trade to move up 2 spots surrendering both their 2nd round picks this year and their 2nd next year? If Tua's medicals check out, probably so. (they have 2 additional 1st's this year anyway)

Will the Colts trade their top 3 picks this year to move up 8 spots to grab a QB? If they like the QB, probably so.

The Lions would make out like bandits receiving five 2nd round picks to move down 10 spots. The last two drafts had a lot of really good players from picks 20 - 70 meaning it was good to acquire 2nd round picks. Many analysts stated it was hard to mock those drafts because there was little difference from pick 20 to pick 70. Does the draft this year have the same depth from 20 - 70?

Originally Posted by Racehorse (Post 153825)

I wouldn't trade that much capital to move up unless I was 100% sure about the guy I wanted. I would prefer to keep the three picks and hope to add enough pieces to make the QB choice less important. That is, if that position can be less important.

Originally Posted by Chromeburn (Post 153957)

Well you don’t trade up for a guy you are look warm on. Whoever they set there targets on i hope they go get him. Everyone wants to save those picks, but we will have more picks next year. I doubt the Bears or their fans regret trading up for Trubisky.

Originally Posted by rcubed (Post 153958)

does it still work with these changes?

Originally Posted by Chromeburn (Post 153959)

Ok guess it can’t work then. Don’t take a chance anyone, you might fucking fail!

Originally Posted by rcubed (Post 153963)

naw, taking a chance is good. sometimes it works, sometime it doesnt. better have a good evaluation if you do though. bears tried to out think the room and it backfired.

Originally Posted by Chromeburn (Post 153966)

Bears gambled and failed (although Trubisky’s career isn’t over yet.) But the entire draft is a gamble. If you want to be safe draft Jeudy, probably the safest pick.

Drafting a QB Is actually working quite a bit now. The failure rate for first round QBs is declining since 2016. Coach’s are adjusting to their QBs, implementing more college style systems. Lamar Jackson had the same accuracy criticisms as Trubisky, he fixed his issues. So it is possible to coach it out of them. But what is the Gretzky saying? You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take?

Originally Posted by JAFF (Post 153969)

And organization needs to interview a potential quarterback and try to get a measure of his ability to think adjust and learn. The NFL is a very cerebral game and the smarter quarterback turns to have an advantage over the athletic quarterback. See Peyton Manning. See Eli Manning. See Joe Montana. See that cheating bastard in New England

Originally Posted by Chromeburn (Post 153957)

Well you don’t trade up for a guy you are luke warm on. Whoever they set there targets on i hope they go get him. Everyone wants to save those picks, but we will have more picks next year. I doubt the Chiefs or their fans regret trading up for Mahomes.

Originally Posted by Chromeburn (Post 153972)

I think this is shifting. Although athletic QBs are nothing new. Teams are not forcing them into the old conventional pro-schemes now. Also I think QBs just have more training and experience than they used to. The 10,000 hour rule starts to apply. I also suspect Madden has an influence which is essentially a football simulator, at least with retention and play memorization. But teams are getting QBs that can extend the play, not necessarily a Lamar Jackson, but a Mahomes, Wentz, Wilson, Luck type that can leave the pocket and break down a defense. The pocket passer won’t die, and trend always shift in the NFL. But right now I think teams want a guy who can scramble. And just because he can scramble doesn’t mean he isn’t cerebral.