At the end of the day, if the salary cap for 2021 is $190m, then there are 13 teams that basically have zero cap space to sign anyone not already under contract, their 2021 rookie class, 2021 practice squad and have some space for in season signings due to injury.

No money to sign their departing UFAs.
No money to sign any new UFA free agents.
Hard to even RFA tag any of their folks.

Sure, it is easy to say "it is all funny money" as if pushing a ton of cap space into the future is easy for a lot of teams to do. It is not. Unlike when congress deficit spends, the bill comes due in the NFL.

Back of the napkin math says that there is about $620m in cap space to chase after among all teams combined in 2021 with the cap at $190m.

According to Spotrac, in 2021, the top paid 32 free agents counted a total of $452m against the 2020 salary cap.

So just the top 32 free agents account for 73% of the available 2021 free cap space if they all signed contracts the exact same as they had in 2020.

Had the salary cap gone as projected pre-COVID and been set at $210m for 2021, there would be an additional $640m in free cap space. COVID basically cut the free cap space in half for 2021.

Something has got to give.

My guess is that what is going to give are the player's contracts as free agents in 2021 and perhaps beyond.

I think good players are going to be signed to much smaller contracts than they hoped for. Lots and lots of "1 year prove it deals" even for good players as they hope the market improves in 2022.

A smaller cap is absolutely not something the players union wants.

No matter what the cap is, $170 million or $190 million, the Colts still are one of the top three or four teams in terms of how much they have available, even after the Wentz deal, right?

Lazy minds want to know...

Either way we are fine. But a lower cap means there will be more FA for us to pick from. I doubt we spend all our money. Just not Ballard’s style.

After absorbing Wentz's cap hit, the Colts sit at #4 with $50m of usable cap space for free agents.

#1 = JAX = $77m free agent cap space
#2 = NYJ = $72m free agent cap space
#3 = NE = $65m free agent cap space

#5 = CIN = $42m free agent cap space

In fact, the only other 2020 playoff team in the top ten is WAS at #6 with $39m in free agent cap space.

Lots of free agents....not lots of cap space they will be chasing.

The NFL has officially set the 2021 cap at $182.5M.

The Colts have until May 3 to exercise Big Q's fifth year option. Looks like the option will be valued at $13.7M based on him reaching the Pro Bowl multiple years.

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/sta...56868403023873

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/sta...74406126059522

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/sta...74957278576643

That is lower than had been anticipated. The expectation would be at $187.5m or $190m.

That means that as of this moment, there is only about $500m in free cap space that all the free agents are going to be chasing after.

This free agency class is missing out on $880m of additional free cap space had the cap ended up at $210m which was anticipated pre-COVID.

9 teams are currently over the cap and will need to make cuts to even sign their draft picks.

Another 3 teams are under the cap but don't have enough to sign their draft picks, spots 52 & 53 on roster and practice squad. They will need to make cuts to do so.

Another 4 teams have enough to sign everyone with just a bit left over to perhaps sign an RFA/ERFA tag or three.

And another 5 teams have between $15m and $22m in free cap space to sign veteran free agents meaning 1.5 quality guys or 3-5 tier 2 veteran free agents.

In the end, there are only 11 teams in the league with sufficient free cap space ($25m+ ) to be real "players" in free agency this season.

JAX = $64m (But who wants to play for that disfunction?)
NE = $64m (So it was all Brady?)
NYJ = $63m (East coast big city disfunction)
IND = $42m (Only AFC playoff team on the list)
CIN = $38m (Up and coming?)
WAS = $33m (Only NFC playoff team on the list)
LVR = $27m (Desert disfunction)
MIA = $26m (Almost Caribbean disfunction)
DEN = $26m (Rocky mountain disfunction)
HOU = $25m (Gosh, I wish BOB was still in charge)
LAC = $25m (West coast disfunction)

Good golly! 10 AFC teams and only 1 NFC team on that list. I wonder which conference all the free agents are heading to?

Of course, teams can start resorting to using the type of deals only congress can make but in the NFL, you actually have to pay back the debt and that can really screw you going forward.

It is seriously a good off season to have your team's GM be a frugal bastard.

IronShaft makes me miss Sherck's number crunching.

Article from Stampede Blue (located here) makes the case that with normal 2021 cap needs (rookie class, practice squad, etc) AND reserving money for Nelson's 5th year option and extensions of Leonard and Smith in 2022, the Colts have about $18m in 2021 cap space that they can carry over into 2022 to devote to new LONG TERM veteran free agent signings.

I could quibble a bit with the numbers (I think that number is closer to $22-$23m) but this gives you an idea of how much the Colts can spend on new LONG TERM deals for veteran free agents.

If we are talking just one year contracts, then we can devote a lot more cap space to veterans in 2021 knowing they will fall off the books for 2022 and we then sign extensions for Smith and Leonard at the end of this season.

But if we are looking at locking up a valuable piece moving forward, then we can sign one super stud ($15m plus per year) or two studs (around $10m per year) and a couple of tier 3 guys.

Just puts it in perspective. Unless Ballard starts backloading contracts which would be WAY out of character, then while I hope we can hit on a few veteran free agents, I don't know that I think we will see a big splurg in veteran free agent signing this off season (unless the price is really depressed due to lack of money and way too many guys chasing it).

Not sure what info the author of that article is relying upon, but I think he's severely underestimating the cost of extending Leonard and Smith. $10M a year for Smith? I'd guess more like $16-$18M. Leonard at $17.5M is likely low too - more like $20M in my view. And the Colts might try to extend Nelson too, so the $14.5M might be low too (and for the record, I think the actual number is more like $13.8M, so again I'm not so sure about this author's info).

All of these contracts could be financially engineered to minimize the immediate cap impact, but that sort of thing hasn't been Ballard's custom and practice in the past. Of course, he hasn't really needed to worry about cap issues in the past, so I don't feel confident in saying he wouldn't ever use such techniques. However, as others have discussed here, that sort of thing comes with potentially serious future consequences.

Kyle Rapoza @ColtscapKyle

Colts cap space is at $39.7 million accounting for the RFA tenders to Pascal, Cox and Odum (assuming all sign it).

:cool: