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The Colts Have Overcome Flaws on Defense So Far: Here’s Why Their Luck Could Soon Run Out (By James Boyd) https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/672...dary-chargers/ *********************************** The game could’ve gone either way last week. One flag would’ve changed everything. Tight end Trey McBride asked for it, even begged for it. Facing fourth-and-7 from the Colts’ 9-yard line, the ball wasn’t going anywhere else on the Cardinals’ final offensive play. Arizona backup QB Jacoby Brissett was already down his top receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr., who exited in the second quarter with a concussion, so the veteran went to his other go-to guy with the game on the line. McBride, lined up against Colts cornerback Chris Lammons, ran down the seam and into the end zone before breaking outside toward the sideline. He thought he had Lammons beat, but the undersized slot cornerback stayed attached and forced an incompletion. McBride thought Lammons’ sticky coverage was aided by a tug of his jersey. The star tight end, frustrated and defeated, ran to the nearest official and pleaded his case. It was to no avail. The Colts had survived, moving to 5-1 on the season. But now, days away from facing quarterback Justin Herbert and the 4-2 Chargers in Los Angeles, can they survive again ??? “A red zone stop on the last play of the game, all that goes to show our potential,” safety Cam Bynum said after the game. “But we can’t play with it like that. … We don’t want to have to play that type of football.” The Colts would like to believe that their poor defensive performance against the Cardinals was a one-off. After all, entering Week 7, they were still ranked fourth in scoring defense at 19.3 points per game, which is the stat defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo rightfully claimed matters more than all the rest. But it’s fair to question just how sustainable that stinginess is when taking a look under the hood. This season, Indianapolis has already given up 40 explosive plays, defined by TruMedia as passes of 16-plus yards and rushes of 12-plus yards, which is the 10th-most in the league. The Colts have struggled the most through the air, with 32 of those 40 explosive plays coming on passes. That’s a big reason they’ve also given up the 10th-most passing yards in the NFL (1,397) without having faced a murderer’s row of quarterbacks. In fact, the Colts haven’t faced a single QB ranked inside the top 10 EPA/dropback. So, when reflecting on Brissett’s performance, should it still be categorized as an outlier or a troubling sign of things to come? Sure, Indianapolis was facing a unique set of circumstances last week when its already banged up secondary lost its top cornerback, Charavarius Ward, roughly one hour before the game. Ward and backup tight end Drew Ogletree accidentally ran into each other during pregame warmups, and Ward suffered his second concussion of the season. Undrafted rookie Johnathan Edwards was suddenly thrust into the starting lineup to replace Ward, a 2023 second-team All-Pro. Brissett immediately put the newbie through the ringer. “Being in for a package is so much different than starting a whole game,” said Edwards, who’s played sparingly this season when Ward has been available. “ …... But there’s no excuses. (Ward) has set the standard for our position, and it’s my job to pick up the (slack) until he comes back.” Ward remains in concussion protocol, so Edwards will likely start again against the Chargers. The 23-year-old is eager to redeem himself and knows Herbert will probably test him. Last week, Brissett completed six of his seven passes for 123 yards when targeting Edwards, per Pro Football Reference. But what about the other 277 yards ??? The Cardinals put up a season-high 400 yards of total offense (their second-most this year is 360 yards) without their starting quarterback, top receiver (at least for one half) and their top two running backs. Brissett threw for over 300 yards for the first time in nearly three years and was one completion short of pulling off his first game-winning drive in nearly a year. Meanwhile, Herbert already has two game-winning drives this season, with his latest one coming in last week’s 29-27 win at Miami. Furthermore, Herbert has a slew of talented receivers, evidenced by the Chargers being the only NFL team with three 300-yard receivers through the first six weeks: Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen. In September, Colts linebacker Zaire Franklin said on the 520 Podcast that Hebert wasn’t a top five quarterback in the NFL. “He got a lot of stats and stuff like that, too, so he’s definitely top 10,” Franklin said. “But top five? It’s too solidified. It’s too much going on up there. You gotta be genuinely a different cat.” On Wednesday, while not offering an update in his rankings, Franklin had a different tone. “Herbert’s playing at the highest level of anybody else in this league,” Franklin said. “Much respect to him.” Herbert is steering a Chargers offense that ranks fifth in the league in third-down conversion rate at 45.2 percent, which perhaps is the most damning part about a Colts defense that has struggled to get off the field. Last week, the Cardinals were 9-of-16 on third downs, including a third-and-17 in which McBride notched a 26-yard reception that led to a touchdown three plays later. Through six weeks, Indianapolis has allowed opposing offenses to convert 47.9 percent of their third downs, which ranks 30th in the league. “Third down has to improve,” Anarumo said. “We were a little bit sloppy in that last week.” Bynum, while agreeing with his coordinator, was more forthcoming. “Getting off the field on third-and-10-plus, that should be easy. That should be simple,” Bynum said. “We’ve let those things slip, and I think just doing the simple things right and doing what we’re supposed to do, when we’re supposed to do them, will help us to be an even better defense.” The Colts have been able to mask some of their defensive deficiencies thanks to their nine takeaways, which is tied for the fifth-most in the league. They also have the No. 1 offense in the NFL at 32.3 points per game, which has often given them the benefit of playing with a lead. But if the Colts truly want to take the next step defensively, it will likely need to happen in the trenches. While Indy is tied for seventh in sacks (17) this season, it’s ranked 19th in pressure rate (34.8 percent), per TruMedia. Some of that could be attributed to Anarumo, who isn’t blitzing very much (23.7 percent is 22nd in the NFL), probably because he knows he can’t trust his depleted secondary to hold up if he brings extra rushers. So, if reinforcements aren’t coming, the Colts defensive line has to help itself against a QB whom defensive tackle DeForest Buckner said has “a cannon for an arm,” among many other gifts. “That Miami game, the last drive, he shook off a defender who had a clear shot on him and made a play downfield and set up the field goal to win the game,” Buckner said of Herbert. “We, as rushers, gotta do a good job of getting him down and mainly trying to pin down his throwing arm because constantly on the tape, when he’s wrapped up, he continues to get the ball out.” Colts defensive end Tyquan Lewis and Kwity Paye lead the Colts with three sacks apiece. But fellow defensive end Laiatu Latu, the first defensive player drafted last year, has just one sack in six games. Sunday may be as good a chance as any for him to finally break out against the Chargers, who — despite all of their talent at QB and receiver — have played musical chairs with their starting offensive line this year, due to injuries. As a result, Herbert has been pressured on 40.8 percent of his dropbacks this season, which is the third-highest rate in the NFL, per NFL Pro. What’s more, 48 percent of those pressures have come in under 2.5 seconds. “It’s another opportunity to be great, alongside the whole defense and the whole team,” Latu said. “It’ll be a good one, especially to go 6-1.” Or, it could be a bad one if the Colts drop to 5-2 because the cracks in their defense eventually give way. o |
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