What is the tie breaker for the first pick?

Draft order is determined by:

A team making the playoffs will be ranked higher (and thus draft later) than one which didn’t.
Assuming both teams either made the same round of the playoffs or both missed out, the following tie-breakers apply in this order:

1. Strength of schedule (the team whose opponents won fewer games drafts first)
2. If the teams are in the same division, you apply the divisional tie-breakers
3. If the teams are in the same conference, you apply the conference tie-breakers
4. If the teams are still entirely even, you toss a coin at the NFL combine to determine the order

Strength of schedule. Jags edge them out by about a couple hundreds of a decimal.

Twenty minutes is not a long time.

Looks like we need the division to win out, minus the Titans. Need the AFC East to lose a few games. Too bad most games in week 17 are division games.

So now we'll be spending the foreseeable future dealing with DeShaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence in the division. Not to mention Tannehill has transformed into a very good QB.

Hopefully the Jags and Texans front-offices keep being incompetent, because they both have blue-chip QB prospects to build around assuming the Jags end up with Lawrence.

Jags need to pull off the clutch win against the Bears this week to not get Lawrence. Hope is still alive. Also, Lawrence could choose to go back to Clemson.

If the Jags end up with the top pick, I think Lawrence would be happy. They have a young and somewhat solid nucleus. What they don't have is a stud QB. If Lawrence turns out to be all that experts feel he can be, they may go from worst to first in the division.

Since when have the Jaguars managed to put in offense of line around any decent quarterback they’ve ever had

Is there any scenario where the Colts wrap up a playoff spot this weekend? Then they could rest some guys with nagging injuries, and start either Eason or Brissett week 17 against the Jags.