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-   -   The Colts QB in 2021 is?... (http://www.coltfreaks.com/forum/showthread.php?t=113950)

Dam8610 01-07-2021 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chaka (Post 182576)
You make a good point – not sure why the $15M guarantee isn’t accounted for in the 2022 dead cap calculations at Spotrac. Honestly, I think they’ve simply overlooked that part of the guarantees when calculating their dead cap number. I ran a quick search and see that it’s been accounted for in this narrative breakdown on the CBS Sports website, which correctly states that the Eagles' dead cap in 2022 would be $39.5M:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/a...r%20his%202021

I note the numbers used by the agent in the above article include a few other discrepancies from the Spotrac calculations, so there may be nuances that one or the other have missed. The agent's take appears to be pretty consistent with what I've laid out in prior posts regarding cap hits, etc. to an acquiring team. And he seems to think that the cap numbers will make it difficult to find a taker for Wentz - so again, I think a third rounder would be a significant overpay.

That article you cited points out the problem with your theory, which is that the Eagles don't have to trade Wentz. They even point out that Sam Bradford netted a 1 previously when the Eagles didn't want him. Granted, Bradford didn't have the albatross contract of Wentz, but the Eagles have Hurts on a rookie deal and could conceivably more easily afford keeping him than dumping him. The Eagles aren't just going to give him away, which is why under the circumstances a 3 would likely be the price. It allows them to save some face while getting rid of what might otherwise be a massive problem.

From the Colts perspective, a 3 is not that much to give up, especially if they get a franchise QB (and if they don't losing a 3 doesn't set the team back 2-3 years), and if he totally bombs, you get your franchise QB in 2022 and cut Wentz with a $15 million dead cap hit as long as it's done before the third day of the 2022 league year, with two QBs on rookie contracts. I don't really see the downside to the idea, as I think Ballard and Reich have earned enough credibility in Irsay's eyes to weather the storm if it goes poorly and if course they'll look like geniuses if it goes well.

Chaka 01-07-2021 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 182613)
That article you cited points out the problem with your theory, which is that the Eagles don't have to trade Wentz. They even point out that Sam Bradford netted a 1 previously when the Eagles didn't want him. Granted, Bradford didn't have the albatross contract of Wentz, but the Eagles have Hurts on a rookie deal and could conceivably more easily afford keeping him than dumping him. The Eagles aren't just going to give him away, which is why under the circumstances a 3 would likely be the price. It allows them to save some face while getting rid of what might otherwise be a massive problem.

From the Colts perspective, a 3 is not that much to give up, especially if they get a franchise QB (and if they don't losing a 3 doesn't set the team back 2-3 years), and if he totally bombs, you get your franchise QB in 2022 and cut Wentz with a $15 million dead cap hit as long as it's done before the third day of the 2022 league year, with two QBs on rookie contracts. I don't really see the downside to the idea, as I think Ballard and Reich have earned enough credibility in Irsay's eyes to weather the storm if it goes poorly and if course they'll look like geniuses if it goes well.

You are correct that the Eagles are not required to trade Wentz, but if they see Hurts as their starting QB going forward, they should DESPARATELY want get rid of Wentz – and, yes, even if give him away if that opportunity presented itself.

The Eagles are $70M over the 2021 cap right now, so big changes are coming and they are facing a rebuild. As I mentioned above, getting rid of Wentz won’t help the 2021 cap all that much, but it WILL dramatically improve future years. If he’s traded, he’ll still count $33.8M against the 2021 cap, but that will be the end of it for the Eagles. If he stays, however, he’ll count $34.6M against the 2021 cap AND he’ll chew up a minimum of $39.5M in future cap space, and probably more. By keeping him, they actually worsen (slightly) their 2021 cap situation, AND handicap future years as well. All to keep a disgruntled QB they see as a backup.

Put another way, imagine Jacoby Brissett chewing up $30M+ of the Colts cap on a rolling forward basis over the next several years. If another team approached you and inquired about a trade that could limit that damage to a single year, how strongly would you insist on a high-round draft pick in return? I don't think you would at all. I think you’d be willing to settle for just about anything, even one of Tom Brady's old, deflated footballs. Certainly, in absolute terms, Brissett is worth far more than an old, deflated football, but really that’s not the point – it’s the opportunity to avoid the cap damage that he causes as a backup QB making a premium salary which reduces his value to that amount.

JAFF 01-07-2021 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chaka (Post 182638)
You are correct that the Eagles are not required to trade Wentz, but if they see Hurts as their starting QB going forward, they should DESPARATELY want get rid of Wentz – and, yes, even if give him away if that opportunity presented itself.

The Eagles are $70M over the 2021 cap right now, so big changes are coming and they are facing a rebuild. As I mentioned above, getting rid of Wentz won’t help the 2021 cap all that much, but it WILL dramatically improve future years. If he’s traded, he’ll still count $33.8M against the 2021 cap, but that will be the end of it for the Eagles. If he stays, however, he’ll count $34.6M against the 2021 cap AND he’ll chew up a minimum of $39.5M in future cap space, and probably more. By keeping him, they actually worsen (slightly) their 2021 cap situation, AND handicap future years as well. All to keep a disgruntled QB they see as a backup.

Put another way, imagine Jacoby Brissett chewing up $30M+ of the Colts cap on a rolling forward basis over the next several years. If another team approached you and inquired about a trade that could limit that damage to a single year, how strongly would you insist on a high-round draft pick in return? I don't think you would at all. I think you’d be willing to settle for just about anything, even one of Tom Brady's old, deflated footballs. Certainly, in absolute terms, Brissett is worth far more than an old, deflated football, but really that’s not the point – it’s the opportunity to avoid the cap damage that he causes as a backup QB making a premium salary which reduces his value to that amount.

Does any one here think Brissett will be on the team next year?

rcubed 01-07-2021 06:53 PM

^ No

Puck 01-07-2021 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAFF (Post 182650)
Does any one here think Brissett will be on the team next year?

Yes

Racehorse 01-07-2021 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAFF (Post 182650)
Does any one here think Brissett will be on the team next year?

I think he will be kept as long as he accepts a contract as a backup QB. That is, unless Eason is ready to assume that role.

CanuckColt 01-07-2021 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAFF (Post 182650)
Does any one here think Brissett will be on the team next year?

No.

Dam8610 01-07-2021 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chaka (Post 182638)
You are correct that the Eagles are not required to trade Wentz, but if they see Hurts as their starting QB going forward, they should DESPARATELY want get rid of Wentz – and, yes, even if give him away if that opportunity presented itself.

The Eagles are $70M over the 2021 cap right now, so big changes are coming and they are facing a rebuild. As I mentioned above, getting rid of Wentz won’t help the 2021 cap all that much, but it WILL dramatically improve future years. If he’s traded, he’ll still count $33.8M against the 2021 cap, but that will be the end of it for the Eagles. If he stays, however, he’ll count $34.6M against the 2021 cap AND he’ll chew up a minimum of $39.5M in future cap space, and probably more. By keeping him, they actually worsen (slightly) their 2021 cap situation, AND handicap future years as well. All to keep a disgruntled QB they see as a backup.

Put another way, imagine Jacoby Brissett chewing up $30M+ of the Colts cap on a rolling forward basis over the next several years. If another team approached you and inquired about a trade that could limit that damage to a single year, how strongly would you insist on a high-round draft pick in return? I don't think you would at all. I think you’d be willing to settle for just about anything, even one of Tom Brady's old, deflated footballs. Certainly, in absolute terms, Brissett is worth far more than an old, deflated football, but really that’s not the point – it’s the opportunity to avoid the cap damage that he causes as a backup QB making a premium salary which reduces his value to that amount.

Fine, you've convinced me, let's go after Wentz and Fletcher Cox for a 3.

apballin 01-07-2021 08:18 PM

Mcshay has us picking Mac Jones in round 1

Puck 01-07-2021 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dam8610 (Post 182671)
Fine, you've convinced me, let's go after Wentz and Fletcher Cox for a 3.

Way to beat him down Chaka


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